Blue Jays Series Preview: Jays look to continue streak against Dodgers top arms

Across the Diamond: L.A. Dodgers

As I previously mentioned, the pitching staff of the Dodgers has been the foundation for their .500 record. Their 3.71 team ERA ranks 10th in the league, and their FIP of 3.50 ranks 5th. When isolating the numbers their starters have derived, those numbers improve to 3.55 (8th) and 3.31 (5th) respectively.

However, despite strong team numbers, they’re largely that good because of only two pitchers. Kershaw owns a 1.96 ERA and a 1.86 FIP on the back of downright nasty peripherals: 10.57 K/9, 0.59 BB/9, and 0.59 HR/9.

Maeda has put up a 1.41 ERA and a 2.79 FIP with a solid 7.88 K/9 and excellent command. His ERA is likely to regress, but there’s no reason to think he can’t continue to be a solid mid-rotation starter.

The rest of the Dodgers’ rotation has been pretty awful, with Ross Stripling, Alex Wood and Scott Kazmir putting up ERA’s of 4.33, 5.18, and 5.68 respectively. Stripling has been solid, but nothing spectacular, and the two lefties have been nothing short of awful, but the Jays don’t draw either of them, so they’ll have to go through the heart of the Dodgers rotation.

Their bullpen has been fairly average, bordering on poor. They own a 4.03 ERA with a lacklustre 7.84 K/9 and 3.47 BB/9. If the game gets into Kenley Jansen’s hands with a lead, it’s as good as over. Joe Blanton has been pitching shutdown ball with a 0.77 ERA, but lacks the strikeout potential for that number to stay there. Pedro Baez is a hard-throwing strikeout threat, but he struggles mightily with the free passes and home runs. Overall, it’s a fairly average bullpen.

On the offensive side of things, Pederson has been the best Dodger at the plate thus far, but his numbers could be slightly skewed due to splitting his time in the OF with Trayce Thompson and Kike Hernandez, but nonetheless, he’s hitting .265/.386/.500/.886 with a wRC+ of 137. He offers both pop and excellent plate discipline from the left side.

Grandal entered the year on the disabled list with a forearm injury, but since returning to action, he’s posted strong numbers. His 10:10 BB:K ratio is excellent, as he offers both plate discipline and quality contact rates while mixing some pop as a switch-hitter. Although, he’ll be out of the lineup when Kershaw takes the hill, as his personal catcher A.J. Ellis will be starting that one.

Utley and Seager have gotten off to decent yet inconsistent starts, posting wRC+ totals of 128 and 93. They can both take a walk and limit their strikeouts, and offer a little bit of pop from the middle of the diamond.

Gonzalez is probably the hitter that should be feared the most, and his track record is very strong on a recent and long terms basis. He’s been fairly average with a 109 wRC+, but he can get on a roll in no time, and you don’t want that to happen this weekend so he should be pitched accordingly.

Without many of their veterans hitting like they can, or without the power that the power the Jays possess (even if they’re struggling), this lineup isn’t to be feared. Jays pitchers need to be aggressive and go right after the majority of these hitters.

Next: Game 1 Preview: Stroman seeking a 5-0 start

Game 1: May 6 – 7:07 ET

Kenta Maeda (3-1, 1.41 ERA, 2.79 FIP) vs.
Marcus Stroman (4-0, 3.77 ERA, 3.81 FIP)

Stroman went into his latest start against the Rays struggling to miss bats, but he was still posting solid numbers. I had suggested he start to mix in his repertoire a little bit more, as he became a little too reliant on the sinker. That’s what he did and it paid dividends, as he dominated the Rays to a tune of 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K.

He threw 50 sinkers, the lowest total since his first start of the year, and he mixed in double digit totals with three secondary pitches for the first time this year. He threw 19 curveballs, 13 sliders, and 12 cutters, and introduced the front door cutter to righties, which accounted for a couple backwards K’s.

He mixed both breaking balls in, which kept hitters off balance all night, and located his sinker down in the zone. It was good to see him pitch to contact early in the count, but expand the zone with an array of pitches with two strikes in order to notch strikeouts.

His velocity was also up, as his sinker averaged 93.06 mph, which was the first time he averaged over 93 since his last start of 2014. If he can keep his velocity up, mix in all of his pitches effectively, and continue to introduce new weapons (such as the front door cutter to righties) then he will continue to have success,

Maeda was an unknown coming into the year, but he has handled himself admirably against major league hitters. He won’t blow anyone away, as his fourseam averages 90.21 mph and tops out at 93.16, but he offers 5 different pitches he throws at least 9% of the time.

Along with the fourseam fastball, he also throws a sinker, change, slider and curve. The slider is his go to swing and miss offering, as it has garnered a 26.88% whiff percentage. His change has also been a good strikeout pitch, as it’s missing bats 16.33% of the time.

He relies more so on the command of all of his pitches, and setting up hitters effectively in order to get strikeouts and weak contact. The velocity and movement of his pitches aren’t going to fool major league hitters by themselves, but the way he sets them up, and his diverse look and command lets his stuff play up.

This has the makings of a very good pitching matchup, but with the Jays coming off a huge series win and their first offensive breakout, I put this one in their favour on the back of a strong Stroman start.

Next: G2: A clash of Cy Young winners, what could go wrong?

Game 2: May 7 – 1:07 ET

Clayton Kershaw (3-1, 1.96 ERA, 1.83 FIP) vs.
R.A. Dickey (1-3, 5.73 ERA, 4.40 FIP)

This matchup is a tough one for the Jays. Getting Kershaw in a three game set is unlucky as it is, but it gets worse when he’s facing R.A. Dickey. Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game, he’s in a class of his own. On one hand, I’m excited to watch him pitch in Toronto against the Jays, simply because he’s a destined Hall of Famer, but on the other, I’m not pleased because whenever he takes the mound, the Dodgers are likely going to win.

He gets better every year, and he’s won multiple Cy Youngs. His arsenal features four plus pitches, he has elite command, and he’s an incredible competitor on the mound. There is nothing in his game that you can critique, and he can carve up any hitter or team.

The Jays should go into this one with an aggressive approach against his fastball, and jump on it when he throws it in the zone early in the game. His off-speed stuff is nasty, and nearly unhittable when he’s on, so getting on the fastball is going to be key. Mind you, that’s difficult when it has some of the highest vertical movement in the game, and he can put it wherever he wants, but yea, no one said it was going to be easy.

In his last start he dominated the San Diego Padres. It’s just the Padres, but still, it was downright silly: CG, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 14 K. His game score was an even 100, the third highest mark of his career.

R.A. Dickey has been an interesting case this year. When you watch him pitch, it looks like the knuckler is darting around, and it’s getting swing and misses. But despite the movement, it also seems to be getting hit very hard. It’s like he’s been getting a whiff or it’s been hard contact, no in-between. Now, this isn’t going to last, his FIP and xFIP are actually better than last year’s totals despite the inflated 5.73 ERA.

Luck is going to start falling his way soon, but there’s simply no way to tell with him. His strikeouts are up, but so are his walks, and this points towards the fact that his knuckleball has lots of movement, but perhaps he’s putting himself in more hitter counts, which causes him to either walk more guys or pipe more pitches.

Either way, he’s a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get from him, but he has been known to go on runs where he throws quality starts for 2-3 straight months. Even if he does, I don’t like the Jays’ chances in this one.

Next: Finale: Toronto's best chances at the dish

Game 3: May 8 – 1:07 ET

Ross Stripling (0-2, 4.33 ERA, 3.25 FIP) vs.
Marco Estrada (1-2, 2.64 ERA, 3.26 FIP)

The Blue Jays hitters need to come into this one licking their chops. I mean, regardless of how the first two games go, going up against two pitchers like Maeda and Kershaw is tough, and they need to knock Stripling around.

He doesn’t offer big stuff or strikeout potential and while he’s had a decent start to the 2016 season, he shouldn’t strike fear into any of the Jays hitters. Well, maybe Ryan Goins.

This is the type of matchup where you want to be patient. Let the young pitcher come towards you, make him work himself into hitters counts where he’s forced to use his average stuff in the zone. If they can accomplish that, they have an excellent chance of hitting him hard and getting to that sub-average bullpen early.

Next: Blue Jays have options with two 40-man roster openings

On the Jays side of things, Marco enters this one on a roll and a very good start to his season. Regression was expected from his 2015 numbers, and they’re likely still going to do so, but he’s been great so far.

His K% has gone from 18.1% to 22.4%, his ground balls are up, his fly balls and home runs are down. His walks are up, but that’s really the only blemish on his 2016 season. He continues to improve and show that 2016 may not have been the fluke many outside the Jays organization thought it was.