Blue Jays vs. Rangers: Full series preview and pitching matchups

“0-1 from Dyson…
Bautista with a drive!
No doubt about it!”

October 14th, 2015 feels at once a day and a decade away. Game five of the American League Divisional Series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers, especially the fireworks of the seventh inning, will live on in Toronto baseball history.

On Monday, the Rangers return for the first time since that night for a four-game series at the Rogers Centre.

So one last time (sure..), basque in the glory of that full inning.

The Blue Jays are coming off a significant series win in Tampa Bay, but did so in an unsteady manner. Toronto managed to ride a five-hit performance to a 5-1 win in the series finale on Sunday, thanks in large part to a three-run home run off the bat of Troy Tulowitzki, but a more complete offensive effort will be needed against the 14-11 Rangers.

Before addressing the four pitching matchups expected in this series, a quick look across the diamond at what the 2016 Rangers have to offer:

Across the Diamond: Texas Rangers

Entering play on Sunday, the Rangers sat 11th in total scoring league-wide, but found themselves in the bottom third of the league with just 20 home runs. A strong performance from their pitching staff has kept the Rangers above .500 thus far, but across the board, they’re consistently ranking towards the middle in all major statistical categories. None too high, none too low.

The great rookie outfielder Nomar Mazara has been a terror out of the number two spot, hitting .324 with two home runs and eight RBIs as Shin-Soo Choo remains on the disabled list. Rougned Odor is coming off a 3-for-5 game that raised his average to .283 while Elvis Andrus (.325 AVG) keeps hitting. The usual suspect Adrian Beltre continues to defy age with another strong start of his own.

Prince Fielder is another story, though. The high-priced DH is hitting just .207 with two home runs at the heart of the Rangers’ lineup.

Toronto does run into some good fortune as the great left-hander Cole Hamels started for Texas yesterday, making him the only pitcher the Blue Jays will avoid in this four game set.

Next: Series Opener: Dickey takes another swing...

Game 1:  Monday, May 2nd   –   7:07 ET

R.A. Dickey (1-3, 6.75 ERA) vs.
A.J. Griffin (3-0, 2.52 ERA)

Blue Jays veteran R.A. Dickey has given the club three strong starts this season, but they’ve been negated by two ugly outings. His most recent start fell into the latter category, as the knuckleballer allowed six earned runs on eight hits over six innings.

The early-season moans are back again, but this represents a typical April for Dickey, who has traditionally turned a corner in late May or early June. This much should be accepted as a given, with the hope that this corner comes a start or two earlier in 2016.

In his outing prior, however, on April 20th against the Orioles in Baltimore, Dickey was essentially what the Jays need him to be. He allowed three runs that game over six innings, striking out four and walking two batters. With a string of starts like that and the overdue awakening of the Blue Jays’ bats, his value to this rotation will remain very much real.

Countering for the Rangers is 28-year-old A.J. Griffin, the right-hander who’d last pitched at the MLB level with the Oakland Athletics in 2013 before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

His early results in 2016 have been impressive, though, and his strong start continued last week with an eight-inning start against the New York Yankees in which he held the Bronx

Bombers

to just one run on four hits.

Griffin has gotten by on producing a good deal of soft contact through his early starts, something that’s helped cover up for his low ground ball and swing-and-miss capabilities. He’ll throw a high-80s fastball, low-80s slider and changeup, then drop all the way down into the 60s with his curveball.

Next: Game 2: Marco vs. Martin in a juicy matchup

Game 3:  Wednesday, May 4th   –   7:07 ET

Aaron Sanchez (2-1, 2.59 ERA) vs.
Colby Lewis (2-0, 3.19 ERA)

Thirteen years separate Aaron Sanchez and Colby Lewis, and when Sanchez hits his peak velocity, these two will also be close to 13 MPH of separation on their fastballs.

Lewis has quietly enjoyed a nice start to the season in Texas, taking a 3.19 ERA into this start after working seven innings of two-run ball against the Angels last week. Strangely enough, he did so without recording a single strikeout or base on balls.

A FIP of 5.76 suggests that Lewis’ good fortune is due to run out, though, especially as he deals with a low ground ball rate and struggles to find success with his slider.

Furthermore, Lewis has been unable to produce strikeouts at a high enough rate (just 5.8 per nine innings). The Blue Jays haven’t exactly been the model of patience thus far, but perhaps a matchup like Lewis is what the lineup needs to get back on track with some deep counts and balls put in play.

Sanchez is coming off arguably the strongest start of his season, pitching seven innings of shutout ball against the the Rays in Tampa Bay. The young right-hander managed to work around six hits and two walks, striking out six.

His strikeout rate of 8.3 batters per nine innings has been extremely encouraging, especially considering that he produced a curiously low K/9 of 5.9 in 2015 working between the starting rotation and bullpen. When paired with his 60% ground ball rate, Sanchez is proving to be an excellent fit with Toronto’s strong defensive infield.

Prior to his start in Tampa Bay, however, Sanchez did get rocked for six runs on ten hits in Oakland. That was a wakeup call for the 23-year-old, and Wednesday’s start will go a long way in re-establishing his path through the early stages of 2016.

Next: Series Finale: Lefty duel in Holland, Happ

Game 4:  Thursday, May 5th   –   7:07 ET

J.A. Happ (3-0, 2.76 ERA) vs.
Derek Holland (3-1, 2.48 ERA)

The series finale sees a pair of southpaws with sub-three ERAs face off as J.A. Happ and Derek Holland are scheduled to start.

Holland’s most recent memories of the Blue Jays, however, may not be so fond. In game four of the 2015 ALDS, Holland was shelled for six runs on five hits and a walk in just two innings. This included three home runs.

His one other outing against the Jays in 2015 came on August 25th, where he allowed four earned runs on seven hits over six innings. Not nearly as bad, but again, three home runs.

So far, though, the 2016 season has been rather kind to Holland, who has ridden a .227 opponent BABIP and lower-than-average home run rates to an early 2.48 ERA. In his most recent outing against the Angels he threw six innings of shutout ball, striking out one batter with zero walks. He has yet to allow more than five hits or three earned runs in a single start.

Next: Week 3 updates on the Blue Jays top pitching prospects

Toronto will counter with J.A. Happ, who’s already looking like an excellent piece of offseason business on his three-year, $36 million deal.

Though he’s allowed three earned runs in each of his last two starts, Happ has managed to take a quality start from each outing and has yet to fall short of the 6.0 IP mark. This is an especially impressive feat for Happ, who has never been mistaken for an innings-eater.

After Josh Thole works with Dickey in the opener, it will be interesting to see if Russell Martin (neck) is able to work all three games behind him. He and Happ have looked very comfortable mixing pitches together in their starts.