Blue Jays vs. Rangers: Full series preview and pitching matchups

Game 1:  Monday, May 2nd   –   7:07 ET

R.A. Dickey (1-3, 6.75 ERA) vs.
A.J. Griffin (3-0, 2.52 ERA)

Blue Jays veteran R.A. Dickey has given the club three strong starts this season, but they’ve been negated by two ugly outings. His most recent start fell into the latter category, as the knuckleballer allowed six earned runs on eight hits over six innings.

The early-season moans are back again, but this represents a typical April for Dickey, who has traditionally turned a corner in late May or early June. This much should be accepted as a given, with the hope that this corner comes a start or two earlier in 2016.

In his outing prior, however, on April 20th against the Orioles in Baltimore, Dickey was essentially what the Jays need him to be. He allowed three runs that game over six innings, striking out four and walking two batters. With a string of starts like that and the overdue awakening of the Blue Jays’ bats, his value to this rotation will remain very much real.

Countering for the Rangers is 28-year-old A.J. Griffin, the right-hander who’d last pitched at the MLB level with the Oakland Athletics in 2013 before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

His early results in 2016 have been impressive, though, and his strong start continued last week with an eight-inning start against the New York Yankees in which he held the Bronx

Bombers

to just one run on four hits.

Griffin has gotten by on producing a good deal of soft contact through his early starts, something that’s helped cover up for his low ground ball and swing-and-miss capabilities. He’ll throw a high-80s fastball, low-80s slider and changeup, then drop all the way down into the 60s with his curveball.

Next: Game 2: Marco vs. Martin in a juicy matchup

Game 2:  Tuesday, May 3rd   –   7:07 ET

Marco Estrada (1-2, 2.92 ERA) vs.
Martin Perez (1-2, 4.20 ERA)

Tuesday’s game against Perez could represent one of the more favourable matchups for the Blue Jays, as the 25-year-old left-hander has struggled at times early in 2016.

Right off the bat, Martin Perez’s career splits versus right-handed hitters represent a soft landing for Toronto’s righty-heavy lineup. While lefty bats have recorded just a .654 OPS off of Perez, right-handed bats have produced a line of .284 / .343 / .428 (.772 OPS).

Along with the big bats atop the lineup, this could be a good opportunity for manager John Gibbons to give second baseman Darwin Barney a start over Ryan Goins.

To Perez’s credit, though, he was stronger in his last outing against the Yankees, allowing just two earned runs over six innings of work. His walks, however, have been a serious concern.

Perez has walked 15 batters this season, but struck out just 14. He does well to produce ground balls, but his rate is down from last season (59.9% to 52.8%) and three home runs have already left the yard against him.

Estrada, on the other hand, has been the ultimate battler for the Jays. Not all of his starts have gone smoothly, or completely as planned, but he’s emerged on the other side with some nice pitching lines.

Last time out against the Chicago White Sox, Estrada allowed three earned runs over six and two-thirds innings. He’s run into some trouble with the walks too, though, giving out four free passes in each of his last two outings.

Estrada does have strikeout totals of eight and nine in his first four starts, however, bringing his K/9 well above last year’s mark to 9.1.

Next: Game 3: The Sanchize starts, age vs. experience

Game 3:  Wednesday, May 4th   –   7:07 ET

Aaron Sanchez (2-1, 2.59 ERA) vs.
Colby Lewis (2-0, 3.19 ERA)

Thirteen years separate Aaron Sanchez and Colby Lewis, and when Sanchez hits his peak velocity, these two will also be close to 13 MPH of separation on their fastballs.

Lewis has quietly enjoyed a nice start to the season in Texas, taking a 3.19 ERA into this start after working seven innings of two-run ball against the Angels last week. Strangely enough, he did so without recording a single strikeout or base on balls.

A FIP of 5.76 suggests that Lewis’ good fortune is due to run out, though, especially as he deals with a low ground ball rate and struggles to find success with his slider.

Furthermore, Lewis has been unable to produce strikeouts at a high enough rate (just 5.8 per nine innings). The Blue Jays haven’t exactly been the model of patience thus far, but perhaps a matchup like Lewis is what the lineup needs to get back on track with some deep counts and balls put in play.

Sanchez is coming off arguably the strongest start of his season, pitching seven innings of shutout ball against the the Rays in Tampa Bay. The young right-hander managed to work around six hits and two walks, striking out six.

His strikeout rate of 8.3 batters per nine innings has been extremely encouraging, especially considering that he produced a curiously low K/9 of 5.9 in 2015 working between the starting rotation and bullpen. When paired with his 60% ground ball rate, Sanchez is proving to be an excellent fit with Toronto’s strong defensive infield.

Prior to his start in Tampa Bay, however, Sanchez did get rocked for six runs on ten hits in Oakland. That was a wakeup call for the 23-year-old, and Wednesday’s start will go a long way in re-establishing his path through the early stages of 2016.

Next: Series Finale: Lefty duel in Holland, Happ

Game 4:  Thursday, May 5th   –   7:07 ET

J.A. Happ (3-0, 2.76 ERA) vs.
Derek Holland (3-1, 2.48 ERA)

The series finale sees a pair of southpaws with sub-three ERAs face off as J.A. Happ and Derek Holland are scheduled to start.

Holland’s most recent memories of the Blue Jays, however, may not be so fond. In game four of the 2015 ALDS, Holland was shelled for six runs on five hits and a walk in just two innings. This included three home runs.

His one other outing against the Jays in 2015 came on August 25th, where he allowed four earned runs on seven hits over six innings. Not nearly as bad, but again, three home runs.

So far, though, the 2016 season has been rather kind to Holland, who has ridden a .227 opponent BABIP and lower-than-average home run rates to an early 2.48 ERA. In his most recent outing against the Angels he threw six innings of shutout ball, striking out one batter with zero walks. He has yet to allow more than five hits or three earned runs in a single start.

Next: Week 3 updates on the Blue Jays top pitching prospects

Toronto will counter with J.A. Happ, who’s already looking like an excellent piece of offseason business on his three-year, $36 million deal.

Though he’s allowed three earned runs in each of his last two starts, Happ has managed to take a quality start from each outing and has yet to fall short of the 6.0 IP mark. This is an especially impressive feat for Happ, who has never been mistaken for an innings-eater.

After Josh Thole works with Dickey in the opener, it will be interesting to see if Russell Martin (neck) is able to work all three games behind him. He and Happ have looked very comfortable mixing pitches together in their starts.