Blue Jays Series Preview: Igniting the rivalry with the Orioles

Across the Diamond

Baltimore is crushing the ball to a tune of a team 154 wRC+, 20 points higher than the second place Cardinals. Adam Jones, who’s been dealing with some injuries, and Matt Wieters are really the only regulars who haven’t had a good start to the year.

Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo, and J.J. Hardy have all had strong starts to the year, with wRC+’s ranging from 238 and 153. They’re even getting contributions from rule five draft pick, Joey Rickard, and Nolan Reimold. Up and down the lineup, they’re hitting the ball well, and their offence has carried them to a great 8-3 start.

Their staff has pitched well to start the year, putting up a 3.84 ERA to go along with a 3.18 FIP which puts them in the 7th spot across the entire league, but that number has largely been driven by the work of their bullpen. Yovani Gallardo, Chris Tillman, and Vance Worley have had rough starts, with ERA’s of 5.63, 5.11, and 5.06 respectively.

Ubaldo Jimenez has had a nice start with a very good 10.50 K/9 to go along with a solid 3.00 BB/9. It’s obviously very early, so we’re dealing with very small samples, but he’s been the only real bright spot in their rotation. Their ERA from the rotations sits at 5.14, compared to the Jays number of 3.44.

However, their bullpen has been dominant early on. Zach Britton, Michael Givens, Brad Brach, and O’Day all have K/9’s above 12, including a 20.65 number from Givens. As a whole unit, their bullpen ERA sits second in the league with a 2.03 mark, nearly a run and a half below the Jays mark of 3.44.

It’s an interesting start to the year for the Orioles, who have the ability to get leads and keep them with their deep bullpen, while also having the firepower to make up for lackluster performances in their rotation.

The Jays offence has sputtered out of the gate, but some of the guys who got off to horrible starts have begun to show signs of turning it around. Russell Martin, Kevin Pillar, and Edwin Encarnacion began finding their groove in Boston, while Donaldson and Bautista continue to have terrific starts to the year. I can’t help but think that the matchups of Wright, Jimenez, and Tillman are excellent ones for the Jays lineup, and that this could be the series where they breakout.

Stroman is a good matchup against the Orioles due to his ground ball tendencies but the same can’t be said for R.A. Dickey and Marco Estrada, so the offence will need to be good for the Jays to contend with the O’s offence that’s smashing the ball.

Next: Game 1: Stroman and the Orioles are reunited

Game 1: April 19 – 7:05 ET @ Camden Yards

Marcus Stroman (2-0, 4.22 ERA, 3.58 FIP) vs.
Mike Wright (1-0, 7.20 ERA, 5.91 FIP)

Stroman’s 5.06 K/9 is underwhelming thus far, but his success so far this season has been built on a very high ground ball rate of 65.2%, a hard contact rate of 26.9%, and a strong 2.53 BB/9. He hasn’t garnered the amount of swing and misses he’s capable of yet so far this year, but he’s been extremely efficient, and outside of one poor inning against the Red Sox he’s been fantastic.

Stroman has been heavily reliant on his sinker, throwing it 56.76% of the time. This reliance has been the biggest factor in the strikeout for ground ball tradeoff. He’s continued to mix in his five other pitchers, although he’s barely thrown the four-seam. However, he’s mixed in a cutter 10.14%, the curve 5.41%, the slider 13.51% and the changeup 9.80% of the time.

I’d like to see him go to his off-speed stuff a little bit more in this outing. His sinker is great, but against a team that’s rolling you can’t fall into a pattern or rely too heavily on one pitch. He’s getting a career high whiff rate on both his changeup and slider (17.24% and 20.00%), and getting a strong number on his curve as well (12.50%). He can go to those pitches more often, which will lead to a better chance of keeping opposing hitters off balance.

Another adjustment he can look at making is using his four-seam up in the zone more often when there is two strikes on the batter. He has the ability and command to do so effectively up in the zone, but we haven’t seen much of that this season.

Wright is coming off a start in in Boston that saw him go 5 innings while giving up 5 H, 1 BB and 4 ER. Last season, in 44.2 IP, he posted a 5.24 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, and a 1.81 HR/9, leading to a 6.03 ERA and a 6.13 FIP. Underwhelming numbers, and he definitely has the profile of a pitcher the Jays should feast on.

He offers a four-seam fastball that sits in the 93-95 range, and mixes in both a slider and changeup, but he relies fairly heavily on his four-seam, throwing it 66.67% in his one start this year, and 55.88% last year.

He started against the Jays twice in last year’s campaign, going a combined 5.1 IP while giving up 7 ER. Meanwhile, Stroman diced the Orioles in the aforementioned AL East clinching game in September, putting a line of: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K. The Jays most definitely have the upper hand in this pitching matchup.

Next: Game 2: Can Dickey rebound in Baltimore?

Game 2: April 20 – 7:05 ET @ Camden Yards

R.A. Dickey (1-2, 6.75 ERA, 3.58 FIP) vs.
Ubaldo Jimenez (1-0, 3.75 ERA, 2.86 FIP)

Dickey’s season has been a perplexing one so far. His knuckleball has looked quite good, and it’s been dancing around in each of his starts, but the results haven’t been strong. The strikeouts have been there, but he’s given up 20 hits in 14.1 innings of work, as his BABIP against is a bloated .388.

He’s striking out a fair amount of batters, he’s getting the ball on the ground at a clip of 44%, which is the highest it’s been since his 2012 season, and he’s only given up one home run, but balls in play have been finding holes, that’s just the way this game is sometimes.

Ubaldo was great in his first start of the year, going 7 strong innings against the struggling Twins while striking out 9 and without surrendering a walk. He wasn’t nearly as good in Boston, as he struggled with command.

He has had some success against the Jays though, as last year he went 3-1 across 4 starts. In those outings he owns a 2.55 ERA with a line of 24.2 IP, 17 H, 7 ER, 12 BB, and 27 K. That success will be something to watch in this one, but Ubaldo is a wildcard from game to game. He can be dominant at times, and he can’t find the zone at others, you just don’t really know what kind of pitcher you’re going to get.

Next: Game 3: Will Tillman's struggles against the Jays continue?

Game 3: April 21 – 7:05 ET @ Camden Yards

Marco Estrada (1-1, 2.77 ERA, 3.11 FIP) vs.
Chris Tillman (1-1, 5.11 ERA, 3.11 FIP)

I’m not sure there’s a pitcher in the big leagues that I’d rather see a struggling Jays lineup see. They absolutely tuned Tillman last year in the six starts he made against them. The earned run totals for those six starts were: 7, 7, 5, 6, 6, 2. The only quality start was the last one of the year on September 28, and the rest were batting practice for the Jays hitters.

In those 6 starts, he finished with a line of 25.1 IP, 40 H, 33 ER, 11 BB, 15 K. He gave up 10 HR and finished with an ERA of 11.27. Can’t ask for much more as a Jays hitter than having Tillman take the hill.

Compounding Tillman’s woes, is that his last start in Texas didn’t go very well for him. Let’s hope the Jays can take advantage of this matchup.

More blue jays: Don't miss your Official Devon Travis Return Guide

Estrada, who has had a solid start to the year, had some success against the Orioles last year. He made four starts against the O’s offence, pitching into the fifth inning twice and seventh inning twice, without allowing more than 3 ER in any start. Not dominant by any means, but he was able to keep their strong lineup in check.

Estrada did give up 5 HR in those 4 starts, so that will be something he has to limit in the series finale.