Changeup development can push Sanchez from good to great

The young Blue Jays starter has enjoyed an excellent opening to 2016, but the development of his changeup through the season will be the key to staying on top

Aaron Sanchez has looked the part, and then some, though his first two starts of the 2016 season for the Toronto Blue Jays.

After beating out veteran free agent signing Gavin Floyd in spring training for the fifth and final rotation spot, Sanchez, still just 23 years old, is already emerging as a more viable option for the number two job behind staff ace Marcus Stroman.

To stay there, or climb even higher, Sanchez will need to continue developing his changeup and work to create a wider variance in velocities between that pitch and his fastball.

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In Sanchez’s first start against the Rays, his fastball and sinker release velocities sat close to 96.5 MPH according to Brooks Baseball. Those velocities dropped 1.5-2.0 MPH in his second start against the Rays, but with his changeup experiencing a lesser drop, it only moved the two pitches closer together.

An elite fastball-changeup combination is something that Blue Jays fans are quickly becoming familiar with through closer Roberto Osuna, who is suddenly working from his mid-90s heater down to a changeup at 83-84 MPH. A full 12 MPH difference may not be attainable for Sanchez, but moving from 5-7 MPH to 7-9 MPH (resulting in a changeup closer to the mid-80s) would significantly advance his arsenal on the mound.

This will become especially valuable if Sanchez can continue to locate pitches down in the zone. He was producing a better downward plane in his second start, releasing from a point of greater arm extension and, excluding some fastballs that got away from him up in the zone, was keeping his pitches safe.

Step one will be continuing to repeat his delivery, especially his arm angles between the fastball and changeup.

Both the weak contact it could force and the ability to expand his arsenal the second time through an order would help Sanchez to work deeper into games, a challenge that will face him in his first (potentially) full season in the rotation.

After throwing the changeup on just 4.3% of his pitches in 2015, Sanchez has thrown it 11.7% of the time in 2016.