Blue Jays Series Preview: Stroman vs. Archer kicks off the 2016 campaign

Game #3: April 5, 2016 – 7:10 ET

Aaron Sanchez (7-6, 3.22 ERA, 4.61 FIP) vs.
Jake Odorizzi (9-9, 3.35 ERA, 3.61 FIP)

The assumption is being made that Sanchez will be the game 3 starter, as he’s best suited to follow Dickey in the rotation, but this has not been confirmed by John Gibbons as of yet.

The stats from Sanchez’s 2015 season are tough to gauge, as he split 2015 back and forth between the rotation and bullpen, causing his starting sample to be small. His starting numbers don’t entice optimism, and the peripherals aren’t the prettiest, but his final four starts he showed a big improvement in his command. That improvement is noteworthy, and he wasn’t given a chance to continue improving last season, but what we saw from him in spring is encouraging.

If Sanchez can continue to hone in on his command while continually making improvements on his changeup, and the cutter/slider he flashed at times last year, you can be looking at a starter who can make a big impact. This entire topic has been dissected to death in the spring, so it’s not worth to do it again here. Sanchez is clearly feeling confident after his strong spring, let’s hope he can ride that out into Tampa and let his defense work behind him.

The Rays do have a heavy LHH lineup with Conger, Morrison, Dickerson, Miller, and Kermaier, so that’s something to keep an eye on as the game progresses.

Odorizzi is an interesting pitcher; he relies on pitch variance to set up his 92 mph 4-seamer, and his nasty splitter. He’s actually much better against LHH due to the reliance on his splitter which he throws nearly 30% of the time, but without a true breaking ball acting as an out pitch, he struggles to put away RHH and they have a .115 higher OPS against him. This bodes well for the Jays RHH heavy lineup.

Despite that split that aids the Jays, he’s coming off a successful year and at 26-years-old, he looks to continue to grow as a mid-rotation starter, and he pitched far better at home last year (2.79 ERA) than on the road (3.86 ERA).

You have to give the edge to Odorizzi in this one from a pure pitching perspective, but if Sanchez limits walks and keeps the ball on the ground, the Jays offence can take advantage of Odorizzi’s reverse splits and the Rays iffy bullpen.

Next: Game 4: Happ debuts, again, for the Blue Jays