Blue Jays and the Post-Revere outfield workloads

There should be plenty of playing time for all four of the Blue Jays’ primary outfielders in 2016

There has been considerable speculation about the effect of the departure of Ben Revere on the Blue Jays’ 2016 outfield.  Who will be the starting left fielder?  Should Dalton Pompey start the year in AAA, or will there be enough playing time for him to take a bench role with the MLB Jays?  Where do Ezequiel Carrera and Junior Lake fit in?

will get the bulk of the playing time in CF and Jose will be the primary RF.   But what exactly do “bulk” and “primary” mean in this context – and what are the implications for the other outfielders?

My very best WAG (wild-*** guess) is illustrated in the chart above. Under those assumptions (detailed below) there should be sufficient playing time for all four of the Jays’ outfielders in 2016, even barring significant unforeseen injury or other downtime.

Jose Bautista

I start out by assuming that Joey B will lose 15 games of the season to injury or to rest.  Of the remaining 147 games, I assume that he will spend 30 of them at DH – in part due to minor injuries, in part as a way of keeping him from getting too tired, and in part to give Saunders time in RF. I also assume that Joey will spend 30 games at 1B. This should be to his benefit – as success at 1B could enhance his FA value – as well as to the Jays’ benefit, in that it helps them to make a more informed decision about trying to extend him beyond 2016. That leaves 87 games that Jose will be playing in right field.

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Kevin Pillar

I assume that Pillar will play roughly 142 games in centre field, with 5 games at DH and 15 games on the bench for rest or injury. Note that as a bench player Pillar could come into the games later, as a pinch runner or defensive replacement, so these might not all be true “rest” days.

Michael Saunders

I see Saunders as the RF replacement for the 75 games where Jose is playing elsewhere.  Saunders has a excellent UZR/150 in RF so far in his career, and might well be an extension candidate beyond 2016 if the Jays are unable to re-sign Jose. In addition, I see Michael playing ~50 games in left and 5 at DH, for a total of 130 games. Given his injury history, I am assuming that he misses 32 games over the course of the season. These could be due to injury, for precautionary sit-downs, or due to Gibby playing matchups.

Dalton Pompey

Dalton would be the 4th outfielder, primarily coming off the bench. But he would have an unusually strong workload. Pompey would spell Pillar off when he needed a rest, play over 100 games in LF, DH on occasion, and for the remaining 25 games he would be the primary pinch-running option off the bench.

The bottom line?

There should be more than enough innings and at-bats for all four of the primary outfielders in 2016.  Unfortunately, barring injury or extreme underperformance, there should not be much time left for out-of-option players like Carrera, Lake, or other outfielders.