Blue Jays Top-30 Prospects: Honorable mentions, part one

Our 2016 Toronto Blue Jays Top-30 Prospects list is about
to begin counting down, but first, a look at some talented named that fell just short

The Blue Jays farm system was thinned by Toronto’s deadline fireworks show in 2015, so as we prepare to count down our top-30 list entering 2016, this group has a different feel from top to bottom. And with that, it will need to be treated a little differently.

We discussed earlier in the week how the Blue Jays prospect pool is entering a critical period of cumulative growth, one which should be enabled by a fairly stable MLB roster. This is also necessary, as the majority of Toronto’s prospect talent is still one or more years away from being MLB-ready. With this, you get a crowded picture after surpassing the top 12-15 prospects.

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In fact, you could rank prospects number 15 through 50 in a dozen different ways without anything becoming all that bizarre, and opinions certainly vary on many from that pool. So take the coming rankings as our one cumulative voice in the conversation of many others. January and February are great times for prospect rankings and discussion league wide.

That being said, while we’ll be sticking to tradition by limiting our list to a top-30, we did want to recognize some of the names on the cusp. These are not meant to be in any particular order, as this group becomes fairly clouded itself, nor are these Honorable Mentions meant to be all-encompassing. But it’s important to pull some extra chairs up to the table wherever we can.

For those of you who haven’t followed the Minor League system and prospects closely in the past, there’s no time like the present. There’s an added satisfaction to seeing a young prospect mature into a nightly fixture on your television set, and while the names we’ll be working through over the next two days haven’t quite cracked our top-30, this Blue Jays team is stocked full of impact players that spent their own prospect days on the outside looking in.

First up in the Honorable Mentions: the tallest prospect to just miss the cut…

Next: LHP Matt Smoral still searching for consistency

LHP Matt Smoral
21 years old  –  6’8″, 220 pounds
Drafted: Round 1 (50), 2012

Smoral falls just short in our rankings this season, and has quickly become one of the more difficult prospects to slot in the system. Originally considered to be a top High School arm in his draft class, the towering lefty has struggled to stay healthy and perform consistently over his first three professional seasons.

A rocky debut in 2013 was quickly turned around in 2014, where Smoral did begin to flash the potential that had him inside Toronto’s top-20 prospects on some lists. Over 53.2 innings split between Vancouver and Bluefield that season, Smoral earned a 3.19 ERA while striking out a whopping 70 batters. Walks were an issue, however, with 33.

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While his body and projectability are both top-shelf, Smoral’s inability to locate the fastball has stunted his overall growth and limited the impact of his excellent slider. These control issues surfaced even more noticeably in Smoral’s shortened 2015 season, where he handed out 20 walks over 14.1 innings between Dunedin and Bluefield.

Despite being 21 years old, Smoral remains a bit of a distant project. All 13 of his appearances this past season came in a relief role, so it will be interesting to see if the organization remains committed to that path going forward or if they attempt to stretch him out once again. With just 93.2 career innings at the minor league level, though, it’s still all about patience.

The mechanical logistics of a 6’8″ lefty don’t always lend themselves well to fast-tracked development, but if Toronto remains committed to bringing Smoral along slowly, he could absolutely still develop into an impactful arm. His ceiling hasn’t necessarily changed, it’s just that Smoral has spun his tires getting out of the gates. With some health luck, improved fastball control and the continued development of his changeup, Smoral could be a sneaky candidate for a breakout prospect in 2016.

Next: Lane Thomas a near miss at second base

2B Lane Thomas
20 years old  –  6’1″, 210 pounds
Drafted: Round 5 (144), 2014

Consider second baseman Lane Thomas to be in the just-barely-missed category, as well. Like Smoral, 2016 could be a big year for the former High School outfielder and pitcher. While the reports I’ve read and footage I’ve seen don’t represent the smoothest plate approach, he does have some tantalizing offensive potential.

I do like the power upside of Thomas’ game, and scouts seem impressed with his ability to put the barrel on the ball. He’s also listed at 210 pounds now, up a good amount from his draft year, so when combined with his raw athletic talents (which are impressive), there’s reason for optimism.

This past season between Vancouver and Lansing, Thomas posted a cumulative slash line of .206 / .244 / .353 over 52 games, having a far more difficult time at the plate in his nine games with the Canadians. In an equal sample size of games in his first pro season of 2014, Thomas managed a .281 average with nine stolen bases and 27 walks. He managed just 11 free passes in 2015, so that’s got to bounce back. Watch for him to develop as more of a baserunning threat this year, too, if given more opportunities.

Part of his struggles in 2015 could be attributed to the fact that he underwent a change in positions. After leaving the High School ranks primarily as an outfielder, he split the 2014 season between centre field (20 games) and third base (25 games). This year, however, he transitioned full time to second base.

His athleticism gives him a strong foundation to work with in the field, so it will be interesting to watch how committed the Blue Jays become to one position with Thomas. If he’s able to realize a level of offensive potential, some utility ability may work to push him over the hump as he climbs through the minor league system.

Next: Next up, a small-but-mighty outfield sleeper in Lansing

OF Chris Carlson
24 years old  –  5’9″, 180 pounds
Draft: Round 28, 2014

Carlson is a a great under-the-radar name to keep an eye on throughout 2016. The type of player that won’t get much love in terms of top-prospect love due to his age and draft round, but all he’s done is produce since joining the Blue Jays organization in 2014.

Drafted out of California Polytechnic State University, the college outfielder played 56 games for the Vancouver Canadians in 2014, batting .312 with a fantastic .409 OBP. With 36 walks and only 25 strikeouts, it’s clear he comes with a mature and advanced plate approach. This is something he explained to Brian Crawford of JaysProspects.com in a great profile here.

“When I’m in the batter’s box I just try to not do too much,” Carlson said. “If you do that the pressure is on the pitcher to make good pitches. If he doesn’t I just try to take advantage of it any way I can.”

Carlson took another step forward in 2015 over a full season (106 games) with the Lansing Lugnuts. While his batting average took a moderate step back to .290, the lefty’s slugging percentage ballooned over 50 points to .437. His seven home runs were a nice surprise after zero the year prior, and Carlson tossed in 15 stolen bases for good measure. Continuing with his excellent plate approach, he managed 52 walks with just 42 strikeouts.

He’s been used in the corner outfield positions thus far and will be overshadowed by more dynamic names like Anthony Alford, D.J. Davis or Dwight Smith Jr. He may be blocked by some combination of those names, as well, but I’m confident in his ability to hit regardless of where he lands in 2016. His height is often held against him, but the numbers above should take up a larger part of the conversation.

***UPDATE: Some unfortunate news here, as Carlson’s Minor League bio lists him as being on the ‘Voluntarily Retired List’. An unexpected development for a player coming off two strong seasons, but we wish him the best with his next step off the field.

Next: Wait, there's a lefty arm remaining in the system!?

LHP Shane Dawson
22 years old  –  6’1″, 200 pounds
Draft: Round 17, 2012

The further we dive into these Honorable Mention names, the worse I feel about certain young players being left on the outside looking in. But, such is the nature of this uniquely crowded 15-to-50 group in Toronto’s prospect rankings. Alberta’s Shane Dawson represents a lefty arm that survived the great purge of late-July, and continues to produce as he moves through the system.

Now 22, Dawson was drafted in 2012 and has since advanced through Lansing and up to Dunedin. Across those two levels this past year, Dawson pitched an impressive 127.2 innings and earned 15 (!) wins. Dawson also recorded a 3.03 cumulative ERA, and his 3.38 ERA from Lansing in 2014 remains his highest single-season mark. Not bad at all.

He’s put up some impressive strikeout numbers thus far in his career, but those could taper off somewhat as he faces stronger competition at the higher levels of the minors given his velocity. He managed a cumulative K/9 of 8.5 last year, just below his career minor league mark of 9.1.

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Dawson’s fastball sits in the neighborhood of 90MPH, but he does have a very impressive changeup that he likes to play off of that. Scouts are also impressed by his curveball usage, and from speaking with him on the Jays Nest Podcast in 2015, Dawson seems to be a young pitcher very aware of the mental side of the game. This will serve him well as he continues to outsmart hitters.

The coming year will be all about keeping the ball rolling for Dawson. Uniquely, he’s missing a muscle in his left rotator cuff. This has raised questions about his long-term health and durability, but so far so good. His ceiling potential is likely that of a back-end MLB starter, but if he continues to put up numbers in the quiet manner that he has, his climb up the ladder could be quicker than some think.

Next: Alright, another lefty. This one a 2015 draft pick!