Should Blue Jays shop around the Cincinnati Reds sale?

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The heart of the Blue Jays offseason begins this week as Winter meeting are upon us. Teams will be trading, players will be signing, and hopefully the Blue Jays make some moves that make our holidays more enjoyable.

The Blue Jays, along will every other team, will have holes to fill on their roster so deals will be flying all over the place. On Winter Meetings Eve, it was reported that the Cincinnati Reds would be making everyone on the roster available in trades. That’s right folks, the Reds are entering full rebuild mode.

After three playoff appearances in the past six years, the Reds have failed to even sniff a .500 season over the past two years. Playing in what some would argue as the toughest division in baseball, the Reds have decided to swallow their pride and start again from scratch. Although the Reds could only win sixty-four games last year, it doesn’t mean they don’t have some interesting pieces on their team.

Should the Blue Jays consider any Reds players entering Winter Meetings? With so many made available at once, it would be hard not to look over some of the potential targets given the ever-increasing cost of free agency. Closer Aroldis Chapman has already been moved to the Dodgers one year before he’s set to reach free agency, and the potential of Joey Votto making a LeBron (maybe not) like return home is made highly unlikely due to his contract. Instead, here are some potential realistic options the Blue Jays should consider…

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Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

JJ Hoover –

The 28 year old righty reliever could be the impact bullpen arm the Jays are looking for. Hoover has been a fairly steady option for the Reds over the past three seasons. Pitching at least sixty innings every year, Hoover may not be as young as other relievers like Sanchez and Osuna, but he is still developing his pitches. Hoover throws a low-90s four-seam fastball, slider, curve, and is still developing a changeup to work against lefty batters.

In 2015 Hoover showed significant improvement over his disastrous 2014 campaign. In that 2014 season Hoover would be sent down to Triple- A after going 1-10 with a 4.88 ERA. He would only throw five innings in the minors that year, and would look to get back into his previous form. In 2015 Hoover showed signs of improvement, dropping his ERA back down below the 3.00 benchmark.

The difference here was his fastball command and improvements with his cutter. Hoover’s fastball continues to be his best pitch, but at 6’3 surprisingly he’s not going to blow guys away at the plate. Hoover’s ability to work his fastball diagonally through the zone while mixing in the occasional cutter seemed to be what made him so deadly in his first two seasons. When 2014 came around those fastballs were finding too much of the plate, and his off speed stuff just wasn’t finding the zone at all. This left Hoover with a 1.5HR/9 increase from 2013 to 2014, and a walk rate of 11.7%. Ugly numbers for someone trying to prove they can be reliable in the back end of a bullpen.

The 2015 improvements would see him drop his HR/9 down to 0.98, but that walk rate still remains to be a concern, increasing to 11.7%. Working his fastball better down in the zone allowed for an increase of 11.6%GB. The numbers remain uncertain for Hoover. You can take his improvements of his 2015 season as Hoover getting back on track to the player we think he is, or you can see them as his continued regression, and not worth the risk of a trade.

Hoover is entering arbitration and projected to earn $1.1 million. The Reds, as in nearly any deal they’ll explore, would be looking for prospect capital in return.

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Devin Mesoraco –

The 27 year old Mesoraco could be the backup catcher the Blue Jays are looking for. The once highly-regarded prospect and first round pick, Reds fans were waiting for Mesoraco to have his breakout season. In 2014, his first full season catching, Mesoraco would not disappoint while hitting .273/.359/.534, belting twenty-five homers and driving in eighty runs.

Devin’s offensive production was good enough for him to become an All-Star in 2014. Things were starting to look up, that’s until hip surgery in 2015 sidelined Mesoraco almost the entire season. Mesoraco is still recovering in the offseason, but is expecting to make a full recovery in time for Spring Training next

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Early in 2015 the Reds and Mesoraco reached an agreement to a four year twenty-eight million dollar extension. This contract is very affordable when you consider the upsides to it, especially with a bat like Edwin Encarnacion in a walk year. If the injury this year scares you away a bit, you have reason. Hip injuries in catchers playing in the prime years of their career doesn’t sound promising. From the Reds side of things, a team looking to shed some longer term contracts, this might be a great start in terms of return value.

Mesoraco would add further power to the lineup while provided solid defense when standing behind the plate. He’s certainly still young enough and will continue to develop. With his increase in power showing in 2014, learning the Blue Jay’s plate discipline approach would be important, as Mesoraco had a 23.4K% in 2014. The Reds would again be looking for prospects in return for Major League talent, wether or not the new Jays management regime will be interested in trading their younger talent is unknown.

Finding a backup catcher is one of the main Blue Jays priorities with the departure of Dioner Navarro. Mesoraco might be that perfect fit as his talent exceed that role and his bat could help to lessen the offensive losses Toronto may be facing one year from now.

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Jun 29, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Homer Bailey (34) throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the seventh inning at AT&T Park. The Cincinnati Reds defeated the San Francisco Giants 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

Outside Chance Options –

Homer Bailey –

Homer Bailey is a tough player to figure out. The former first round pick had a breakout 2013 season where it looked like Bailey was a lock to be a consistent number two starter, pitching a career high 209 innings with a 3.49 ERA, and a 4.1 WAR. Bailey would sign a extension early in 2014, for six years $105 million with a $25 million dollar team option in 2020. After a huge contract year, Bailey would be sidelined in 2014 due to forearm fatigue only making twenty-three starts. When it was time for his bounce back season in 2015, it was revealed that Bailey required Tommy John surgery, only making two starts in 2015.

The health concerns may be cleared up, but there’s no sure thing with guys who have logged well over 1000 Major League innings on their arms. The Blue Jays are looking for depth in their starting rotation, maybe not top line talent, but a potential four or five starter is more in the mix. Thats why trades for Jesse Chavez make more sense for the Jays at the moment. It doesn’t seem like it’s in Shapiro’s DNA to spend this kind of money on a pitcher who is locked up for three more seasons, making more than twenty million a year, who has a shaky injury past. If the price is right though (too soon?), who knows what kind of deal you could get. Bailey is the kind of player who the Reds would be looking to get rid of.

season.

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Billy Hamilton –

It would be odd adding another outfield option to the already deep pool of outfield players the Blue Jays have right now. A subtraction of Ben Revere or Michael Saunders would have to happen to even consider trading for Billy Hamilton. The 25 year old Hamilton, has a lot of upside to his game. His defense over the past two years in centre field has been superb, posting a 14.5 UZR in 2015, committing only two errors in over 2200 innings in the Majors.

The biggest upside to Hamilton’s game is his ability on the base paths, stealing over 50 bases a season the past two years. Getting on base however can prove to be difficult. In his first two seasons, Hamilton has a .238 AVG, and a .283 OBP! That OBP can be difficult to wrap your head around, but Hamilton has a lot of difficulty hitting fastballs, as he’s prone to hit a lot of pop-ups. Something Blue Jays hitting coaches would be able to work on with Hamilton.

With the right mix of prospects, Cincinnati might consider trading Hamilton. The only drawback, is Hamilton is signed to the league minimum, and should be the kind of player who Cincinnati wants to build a future around.

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JJ Hoover –

Devin Mesoraco –

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