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Blue Jays: Free agent bullpen targets with closer’s experience

By Keegan Matheson |
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Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

With the Blue Jays rumored to be targeting relievers with closer’s experience, these relatively budget-friendly veterans could emerge as free agent possibilities

Closing experience is a difficult attribute to come by affordably on the free agent market. If the available reliever has a track record of success in the closer’s role over the past season or two, like Joakim Soria, their multi-year price tag will reflect that. If they’ve maintained a consistently high level of success both inside and outside of the closer’s role over the past few seasons, like Tyler Clippard, it’s the same story. 

That’s what makes the next step difficult for the Toronto Blue Jays, if you’re believing the recent report from Jerry Crasnick that closer’s experience is now a target of LaCava and Shapiro. Roberto Osuna can enter 2016 in that role without much groaning from the masses, but the addition of some ninth inning experience could give the Blue Jays a new setup man, one that fills the spot left by Mark Lowe or even allows for Aaron Sanchez to be flexed into a starting role.

Unless we get a surprise ahead of the non-tender deadline or a contract is soon moved, it seems that the realities of Toronto’s budget makes them unlikely suitors for Soria, Clippard or Darren O’Day, all of whom should earn multi-year deals worth at least $6 million per season. These deals weren’t common practice under Anthopoulos and I don’t expect that to change under new leadership, so naturally, it’s time to set our sights down a rung on the ladder.

We’ve compiled a list of available names with closer’s experience that should (or will) be available on more team-friendly one year deals. Struggles with injuries, performance, or both have landed these former closers back in this B-to-C level group. This isn’t the dream scenario when shopping on an open market, but the parameters of this group eliminates the necessity of buying high, opening up Toronto to some potential value. That being said, the options aren’t all pretty. By any means.

First up is a familiar name with over 100 career saves, but he’s also the likeliest of the group to require an option on top of his one-year contract…

Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

RHP Jonathan Broxton, 31
2015: 60.1 IP, 4.62 ERA, 9.4 K/9

The mountainous Broxton had his $9 million option understandably declined by the St. Louis Cardinals, and now enters the free agent market as the prototypical case that the Blue Jays may need to target if they hope to add affordable closer’s experience. A power arm that hasn’t saved over 20 games since the 2012 season, but has a respectable history of performance beyond some recent inconsistencies.

Broxton made his name as a closer with the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2008 through 2010, saving 72 games in three seasons. He then moved on to split his 2012 season between Kansas City and Cincinnati where he’d save 27 more, but hasn’t been used consistently in the role since that time.

From 2013 through 2015, Broxton’s success has been largely unpredictable. A full 2013 season with Cincinnati saw the right-hander post a 4.11 ERA with an uncharacteristically low K/9 of 7.3, well south of his career 10.3 average. It also represented the first time in Broxton’s career that his average fastball velocity (93.8 MPH) had dropped below 94 MPH.

He managed to bounce back the next season, though, with an improved fastball value despite that velocity dipping even further to 93.2 MPH. Broxton managed a 2.30 ERA between the Reds and Brewers, but again, that K/9 number was down at 7.5. In 2015 he saw his fastball rise back above 94 MPH and take his K/9 with it, but a 4.62 ERA doesn’t help his free agent case.

Here, the Blue Jays would be hoping to catch the pendulum swinging back the other way. Expect Broxton to earn $3.5-4.75 million million in year one of a deal, and ideally, any second contract year would be a team option. He fits the bill with closer’s experience, but Toronto should be able to find similar upside for a better value elsewhere.

Next: Next up, the bearded wonder who's closed some Cardinals games of his own...

Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

RHP Jason Motte (33)
2015: 48.1 IP, 3.91 ERA, 6.3 K/9

Motte is one of the league’s more beloved relief pitchers, and at times, his performance has matched the personality. After breaking in with the Cardinals fairly late, seeing his first full season at age 27, Motte posted a 2.24 ERA over 120.1 innings in 2010 and 2011 to earn the closer’s role for the Cards in 2012.

He’d run with it, too, recording 42 saves that year with a 2.75 ERA and career-best WHIP of 0.917. He also experienced his peak velocity that season, averaging nearly 97 MPH with his fastball and almost never straying from his hard pitches. Then, Tommy John.

The surgery would keep Motte out for the entirety of 2013 before he re-joined the club midway through 2014, where he’d struggle through 25.0 innings while working to re-establish his velocity. A one-year deal worth $4.5 million landed him with the Chicago Cubs this past season where he posted a 3.91 ERA and saw his velocity begin to climb back in the right direction, but his K/9 sat at a worrying 6.3 (10.8 in 2012).

So the concerns persist with Motte as well, though he could come in just slightly more affordable than Broxton in this market. Not only would the Blue Jays be battling his elbow, though, they’d be battling age. Unless they believe he can recapture his velocity or develop a secondary arsenal (which he hadn’t needed earlier in his career), Motte’s success would be an uphill battle.

Next: We continue with your annual look at the once-great Canadian Closer

Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

RHP John Axford (32)
2015: 55.2 IP, 4.20 ERA, 10.0 K/9

It wouldn’t be an MLB offseason at Jays Journal without me tossing John Axford’s name into the conversation, but that’s getting more difficult to do with a straight face. The Ontario native kept his K/9 respectable and ERA out of the stratosphere in 2015, but with a 1.581 WHIP and 5.2 walks per nine innings, it could have been much worse.

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Still, Axford managed to post a 0.6 FanGraphs WAR, his highest total since back-to-back 1.9-WAR seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2010 and 2011. Following the trend of affordable arms with closer’s experience, Axford has run into some serious walls since his career peak several seasons ago. He is unique, however, in the fact that he recorded 25 saves for the Rockies in 2015. The quality of those saves is wholly debatable, of course, but I digress.

I strongly considered leaving Axford out of this one altogether, but the Shapiro link brought me back around. The Cleveland Indians signed Axford to a one-year, $4.5 million entering the 2014 season where he posted a 3.92 ERA over 43.2 innings. Nothing breathtaking, but a front office involving Mark Shapiro has looked at Axford in the not-so-distant past and thought “Hey, not a terrible idea.”

His velocity remains as strong as ever, and if Axford can regain the value of his inconsistent slider, maybe there’s something to be found. He’s awfully familiar with a BB/9 above 5.0 though, do the Blue Jays want that on the mound in the seventh and eighth innings?

Next: Next in line: Do you like poorly-tilted hats and post-save celebrations?

Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

RHP Fernando Rodney (38)
2015: 62.2 IP, 4.74 ERA, 236 career saves

Trust me, I’m just as surprised to be talking about Fernando Rodney right now. But in the interest of leaving no stone unturned, he does fit the billing of a relatively inexpensive reliever with closer’s experience. At 38 years old and exiting a two-year, $14 million contract, Rodney’s value could sink to a level more comfortable for the Blue Jays.

Past his big personality, which you’ll either love or hate, Rodney has put up some very impressive seasons, even recently. The first year of his most recent contract with the Seattle Mariners saw him save a career high 48 games with a 2.85 ERA and 10.3 K/9 en route to an All Star appearance.

Rodney was actually a largely mediocre pitcher (4.30 ERA) until his age-35 season with the Tampa Bay Rays, which produced one of the more impressive relief stat lines in recent memory. Saving 48 ball games in 76 appearances, Rodney managed a startling 0.60 ERA and 0.777 WHIP. His control was locked in that season, walking a career low 1.8  batters per nine innings and allowing just two home runs.

Like many relievers in their 30s, Rodney is hitting the market after the wrong season. His fastball velocity hasn’t shown much sign of regression, but it’s value certainly dropped in 2015 with the Mariners and Cubs. With that, his typically strong changeup was hampered. Expect Rodney to be searching for a one-year deal, and somehow, someway, to continue shooting arrows at the end of ball games.

Next: Need closing experience? Who you gonna Qualls?

Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

RHP Chad Qualls (37)
2015: 49.1 IP, 4.38 ERA, 1.115 WHIP

Qualls signed with the Houston Astros entering 2014, but recently had his 2016 contract year bought out for $250,000. You’ll admittedly need to stretch back a bit further to find any additional closer’s experience past his 19 saves in 2014, but he’s handled the role well enough on multiple occasions and has remained a respectable, albeit unspectacular arm well into his 30s.

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Before his most recent stop in the ninth inning role, Qualls recorded 24 saves in 2009 and 12 in 2010 for the Arizona Diamondbacks at a varying level of success. Jumping back to 2014, where Qualls made good on 19 save attempts, he posted a 3.33 ERA and has been good for approximately 0.5 WAR in each of the past three seasons.

The calling card for Qualls has been his excellent control, with a career BB/9 of 2.3 that he’s dropped all the way to 1.3 over the past two seasons. He’s also been able to produce ground balls at a high rate with a career mark of 57.9% that has topped a season-long 60% twice. At the Rogers Centre, with Toronto’s defense, that could play up.

Qualls gets by with a sinking fastball and a slider, both of which have remained inconsistent from year to year. He’ll be in no position to seek multiple years or a hefty salary, and while he may fill the LaTroy Hawkins role better than he fills the Mark Lowe one, there might be some gas left in the tank. Fumes, probably, but gas nonetheless.

Next: Last stop: Tying up some odds and ends

Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

We could get lost down the rabbit hole with reclamation project and faded stars, but let’s end with a handful of names that, while not fitting the discussion perfectly, are worthy of recognition here. In light of the recent J.A. Happ reunion, let’s start with old friend Casey Janssen.

For starters, Janssen’s departure has been grouped into the shift in team chemistry and clubhouse philosophy. Much like Adam Lind, Janssen often wasn’t the most inspiring player off the field or in interviews, though I still feel he may have gotten a harsher goodbye than he deserved. Regardless, it appears Toronto cut ties at the right time.

In 40.0 innings with the Nationals, Janssen posted a 4.95 ERA, his first mark above 4.00 since 2010, and continued to see his fastball velocity erode. Now down to an average of 88.3 MPH and sinking, it doesn’t appear there’s much value left in the right arm of Janssen.

Next: Some relief arms for the Blue Jays to watch in Rule 5 Draft

Past Janssen, the 41-year old Joe Nathan and his 377 career saves will intrigue some needy MLB team in 2016. Nathan is recovering from Tommy John surgery, an incredibly daunting task for an arm of his age, but he is reportedly leaning towards a return if his health allows. This would amount to little more than a minor league flier deep into 2016, but dare to dream. The 2014 season was unkind to Nathan despite 35 saves, but in 2013 with the Texas Rangers, Nathan saved 43 games with an impressive 1.39 ERA.

Staying in the realm of reclamation projects, Carlos Marmol could be a swing in the dark worth taking on a minor league deal himself. He owns a 5.20 ERA since 2013 at the Major League level, but prior to that, the right-hander saved 107 games from 2009-2012 for the Chicago Cubs. His 2015 was limited to 31.0 successful minor league innings (2.03 ERA) AAA Columbus, an affiliate of Mark Shapiro’s Cleveland Indians.

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