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Blue Jays Debate: A Brett Cecil Extension

By Mat Germain |
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Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The Blue Jays have players who are approaching their walk year and could become candidates for extensions as a result. We’ll present both sides of the argument on whether or not they should be extended.

Over the next few weeks, Jim Scott and I will be debating extensions for some of the Toronto Blue Jays players and pitchers. This will be done in an amicable way with the intent to bring all pros and cons forward and help present an viable argument for both sides of the decision. Thereafter, we’ll let you all decide which side you support and why based on what you know and read.

For the purpose of this debate, Jim will be examining the “Against Extension” side, while I’ll be explaining the “Pro Extension” side.

First, Jim and I need some rules of engagement, so here they are.

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Rules of Engagement

  1. The parts of each argument will include: Presenting the player and his accomplishments, a Statistical case, a Financial case, the best and worst case scenario, the intangibles, and the closing arguments;
  2. The case must be made in its broadest form using what we know to be true today;
  3. Outlandish claims are welcome as they will be torn apart in the comments section;
  4. The Financial case will be built using Cot’s Baseball Contracts and MLBTR projections;
  5. Various news stories may be used to build a case for the Intangibles;
  6. Best and Worst case scenarios can concentrate on one or many areas;
  7. No name calling will be tolerated, but tasteful jabs are welcome; and
  8. Future decisions made by the team will be measured against what was presented here, giving us the chance to see if either side was on the mark, OR to point out that both sides were way out to lunch!

With the rules in mind, sharpened minds and opinions, here we go!

Next: The Brett Cecil Extension: Presenting Brett Cecil

Oct 4, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Brett Cecil (27) looks on in the dugout against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Brett Aarion Cecil

LHR, 29 years old, 6’3 220 lbs, Drafted TOR in 1st rd of 2007 Draft (38th overall)

The year Cecil was selected, the Jays also had the 16th and 21st overall picks. They selected Kevin Ahrens and J.P. Arencibia respectively with those picks. Needless to say that Cecil has been the most successful of the three, even if it isn’t in the role that was initially intended for him.

Just for extra Jays related information, Josh Donaldson was selected 10 picks after Cecil in 48th spot, by the Cubs, Ben Revere was selected 10 picks earlier by the Phillies in the 28th spot, and finally Travis d’Arnaud was selected 1 pick earlier by the Phillies and was apparently the pick the Jays would have made had he been available.

The only other reason Cecil is a Blue Jays RP at this point is because of fellow RP Justin Speier who was acquired in 2003 from the Rockies. They received Joe Kennedy from the Rays and a PTBNL (Sandy Nin) from the Jays, the Rays got Mark Hendrickson. When the Jays allowed Speier to walk as a free agent in 2006, they were compensated with the 38th overall pick after he signed with the Angels.

Once he was drafted, he was able to climb up to New Hampshire pretty quickly and goes through a couple of items in this interview while in AA, including the first thing he spent his bonus money on and how he became a starter after being a reliever for so long (funny how things turn out sometimes):

Cecil kicked off his career with an outstanding Win of the Cleveland Indians on May 5th, 2009. He pitched 6 strong innings with only 1 ER, 6 HA, no walks, and 6 Ks. He wound up making 74 starts for the Jays before finally settling into the pen full time. The issue was never his ability to miss bat or to get outs, it was his lack of overall control and walks which sent him to the pen.

Instead of writing more about Cecil, we’ll let him do the talking with the more up-to-date Essential Get to Know Brett Cecil Interview:

And finally, it wouldn’t be prudent to go through extension talks without an array of nastiness to set things up:

With all of these things in mind, we kick off the debate and set up what’s sure to be an interesting back-and-forth battle.

Next: Blue Jays' Brett Cecil Extension: Statistically

Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Blue Jays’ Brett Cecil Extension: Statistically

Mat Germain – 

Brett Cecil’s Last 3 Regular Seasons Statistics

Of note is the fact that his 2013 season was strong enough to earn him an All-Star game appearance. Overall, things to take note of include the track record of steady dominance while working in the pen over the last 3 seasons. Other notes include the drop in walks and whip in 2015, the increase in SO9, and the increase in GF over time which has helped him become more experienced in the role in 2015.

To get a better feel for his 2015 season and how it wound up, we’ll compare it directly to one of the league’s best closers who is incidentally on the trade market, Aroldis Chapman.

Brett Cecil’s Stats for 2015

Aroldis Chapman’s Stats for 2015

I wanted to continue the statistical analysis by comparing Cecil to one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. Things to consider when comparing these are the fact that Chapman was closing all year, while Cecil wasn’t, and that Cecil pitchers in the tougher hitting league.

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There are a few things I want to point out here even if I believe they are fairly obvious. First, Brett Cecil was the most dominant relief pitcher in the MLB over the final 28 days of the season. No other reliever came close to his 22 Ks in only 10.2 IP while only allowing 4 hits, no ER or walks, and no HRs. His 0.375 Whip stands for itself and all of this while he faced 2 more batters than Chapman. The latter’s stats look great, don’t get me wrong, but I wanted to paint a picture of just how dominant and overpowering Cecil was in 2015, and particularly to end the season.

Chapman is headed to the free agent market at the same time as Cecil, for 2017 and beyond, and will compete with him for the big bucks. If the Jays let that happen, there’s no telling how many teams that miss out on Chapman which will target Cecil soon after, but I’d hazard a guess that it’s the vast majority of those looking to improve their pens.

Next, we look at a fellow another dominant relief pitcher who isn’t a closer, Darren O’Day. He may be a better comparison since he didn’t close and pitched in the American League.

Darren O’Day Stats

The reason I’m showing you the last 7 seasons of O’Day’s career is to compare it to Cecil’s 3 past seasons (ages 26-28) and to indicate how a reliever can perform from ages 29 onwards. That’s important to know since the investment will be substantial in both years and money if the Jays extend Cecil.

From 2012 to 2015, there may not have been a more dominant middle-reliever than O’Day, there’s no denying the longevity of his dominance. However, over the last 3 seasons, Cecil has been going toe-to-toe with him on a fairly even level, particularly in 2015. Cecil allowed 1 less walk, 1 less HR, had 0.3 more SO9 and came only a little short on ERA and Whip. And that’s despite only being 28 years old, which if we look at O’Day’s stats is something we can expect to continue for at least another 4-5 years.

In short, statistically speaking, Brett Cecil is well worth a major investment going forward based on what he’s capable of and what he’s accomplished thus far. He’s proven it over 3 years, and we can expect it to continue for the foreseeable future.

Jim Scott – 

I agree completely with Mat that Brett has pitched brilliantly over the last three years. Where I am less confident, however, is whether “we can expect it to continue for the foreseeable future”. The key with an extension is of course not the player’s prior performance but their expected performance over the new contract.

Brett will turn 30 years old in the 2016 season.  So a three-year extension would cover his age 31-34 years. The unfortunate reality is that most relievers- even good ones- experience a significant decline in performance in their 30s. In a characteristically excellent analysis, Jeff Sullivan calculated that the average reliever lost 2 mph in velocity and 2K/p from age 29 to age 34. Over that same period, the average reliever found that his BB/9 increased by 1.5, his HR/9 increased by 0.7 and his FIP increased by almost 2. Not a pretty picture. If Brett had dominating stuff, the effect of this decline on performance might be less apparent.

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Aroldis Chapman had an average 2015 fastball velocity of 99.5 mph and a K/9 of almost 16. If he were to lose 2 mph and 2 K/9, he would still be a dominant pitcher. But Brett’s fastball averaged 91.7 mph in 2015 (per PITCH/fx), down from 92.3 in 2014. A two mph loss for him would not only make the fastball less of a weapon, but also impact on his other pitches.

Cecil’s best pitch is his curveball. In 2015, he threw it over 40% of the time, and it generated the highest percentage of strikes and whiffs and the lowest percentage of balls in play of any of his pitches. It is safe to say that without his curve, Brett would not be the dominant player he is today. (Link to Brett Cecil’s Outcomes by Pitch Type and Usage at Brooks Baseball available here.)

In 2015, Brett’s curveball averaged 84 mph, or roughly 8 mph lower than his fastball. What will happen when Brett’s fastball velocity drops to the point where it can no longer “keep batters honest”, and they can afford to take the extra split-second to key on the curveball?

It is interesting that Steamer, one of the premiere baseball projection services, projects Brett’s performance to decline significantly in 2016: from an ERA of 2.48 and a WAR of 1.4 to a 2.90 ERA and 1.0 WAR. They predict this decline despite an increase in innings pitched from 53 to 65.

So – for the sake of the argument, as we Irish folks say! – suppose that Steamer is right, and Brett finishes 2016 with a 2.90 ERA (which, had he done it in 2015, would have given him the 51st lowest ERA among relievers with 50+ innings). Would he still merit an O’Day-level contract?

Next: Blue Jays' Brett Cecil Extension: Financially

Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Blue Jays’ Brett Cecil Extension: Financially

Jim Scott –

A famous financier once said that there were no good stock and bad stocks, only underpriced and overpriced ones. The issue with extending Cecil is not whether he is a good player, but whether his current price makes sense. So the question becomes: what would it take to extend Brett this offseason?

The timing is bad to extend Brett for several reasons. First, he is coming off a career year. A year that projection systems like Steamer do not expect him to repeat. So the Jays would be “buying high”. Second, the 2015 offseason has been something of a seller’s market for high-quality relievers, with more demand than supply.

Darren O’Day, another non-closer who had a higher xFIP and SIERA than Cecil in 2015, is reportedly looking for a four year deal for an aggregate $36 million. O’Day is reported to have left the GM Meetings in November with several offers already in hand. This may increase Brett’s expectations. And finally, with the recent trade of Liam Hendriks, the Jays might be negotiating from a position of weakness, as Brett might feel that the Jays need him more than he needs them.

Brett is expected to make $3.4 million in arbitration for 2016.  If he were to sign an extension today, he would most likely want the security of a 4-year deal, like O’Day (who is four years older than Cecil). Based on O’Day’s reported ask of 4/$36million, and on Cecil’s career 2015 and younger age, it is reasonable to expect that Cecil would be looking for $7-9 million per year for his three free agent years, for a contract something like  $4/7/8/9, or a total of 4/$28.

As good as Cecil is, this is a lot of money for a reliever who failed as a closer in 2015 and was not even pitching as the primary setup man. It is doubly troubling given the trend of declining production from relievers after age 29 and the fact that the Jays would be “buying high” on a career year – a year that projection systems such as Steamer do not expect him to repeat in 2016.

I could be wrong, though. If Brett were prepared to sign a contract that was both shorter and cheaper than the 4/$28m I project, it would be a different discussion. But I strongly suspect that the sellers market for top relievers in 2015 has put stars (or dollar signs?) in Brett’s eyes. Much better to discuss an extension closer to the end of 2016, when Brett’s production has come down to earth.

Mat Germain –

I’ll use O’Day’s expected numbers, as Jim pointed out, to make my argument for value in Cecil’s case. It’s believed to be around 4-year/$36 million, which averages out at $9 million per season if there’s no front or back loading. I still don’t believe it would cost that much to extend him, but I’ll use it since it would definitely be as close to his ceiling as you could get.

If the Jays were successful in getting Cecil to accept such a deal, he’d be making less than the following relievers (using their ’16 if a FA thereafter, ’17 salaries if not):

And the same as the following relievers:

The first thing I need to ask myself in this case is this: do I believe Brett Cecil is one of the 10 most dominant relievers in baseball? The answer is a clear and resounding, YES.

The reasons for this were mostly covered in the statistical portion and will be expanded on in the best and worst case scenario, and intangibles and indirects portions. But assume for a moment that the case is made and we all agree to it or can’t really dispute it effectively, can the Jays afford it?

The Jays currently have $40m committed to the 2017 season, half is for Troy Tulowitzki, and the other half is for Russell Martin. There are also 11 arbitration cases to be handled that year, 4 of which will be their first year in arbitration. There are 7 free agents including Cecil, with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Jesse Chavez, Michael Saunders, R.A. Dickey, and Justin Smoak joining him. All said, there’s a lot to figure out for that season.

What all of those issues point to, however, is the fact that the Jays will have a ton of flexibility in decisions to be made. They can mitigate costs through trade, player promotions, and other cost cutting measures. However, if they want to have a dominant bullpen going forward, they also need to look at the cost of the pen as a whole. So if we look at the cost there, we see the following (assuming the composition is similar to what it is today):

My point is this. Not only can the Jays afford to extend Brett Cecil financially, but they need to afford him because the rest of the pen lacks the depth of experience that he has and can bring going forward. Of all the relievers the Jays have in-house today, he’s the veteran, the one who shuts things down when they get out of control. Without that financial investment, the Jays will likely need to bring someone from outside the organization in who doesn’t know any of these guys.

There’s no financial excuse to not sign Brett Cecil when you consider how he’s valued compared to the rest of the relievers in MLB and when you consider what they’re paying the remainder of the pen. No excuse.

Next: The Brett Cecil Extension: Best Case vs Worst Case

Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Brett Cecil Extension: Best Case vs Worst Case

Mat Germain –

The worst case scenario for the Jays is that they let Brett Cecil walk and he signs with an A.L. East opponent. The other worry would be if he blew out his arm or shoulder, which would nullify one of – or the majority of – his seasons under a significant contract. But that’s why you have insurance, and in the case of a reliever, recovery tends to be much quicker than a starter. It’s also less risky to invest in a reliever in terms of injury, as they tend to hold up well over time. You don’t need to look much further than Latroy Hawkins to see that!

Best Case scenario would be that he continues his progression and provides the Blue Jays with one of the best 3 LHP relievers in the MLB. If you were to ask most MLB Managers what they value most in their pen, it would be a dominant closer, followed closely by a dominant LHP reliever. If you have both of those things in your pen, you’re going to win a ton of games and keep the leads you have more often than most. With Roberto Osuna potentially poised to be a closer long-term, having Cecil back there with him would ensure the team has a dominant pen for years to come at an overall affordable cost.

Jim Scott –

I don’t see it as a “worst case”, but I believe that a more realistic scenario is that Brett’s 2015 season is an outlier and that he starts to regress back to a true talent level in 2016 and beyond. Remember that Brett’s outstanding 2015 was made up of a first half with a 4.66 ERA and .320 wOBA and a second half with an ERA of zero. I find it hard to believe that the zero ERA represents Brett’s – or any player’s – true talent level. And Brett’s 2015 PITCH/fx ratings for his sinker and change were hugely higher than in any prior year.

So suppose that Steamer is right, and that Brett regresses to a 2.90 ERA, making him a top-50 reliever entering his 30s. That is still very good, and well worth having, but it makes for a very different discussion than the top-10 reliever Mat describes.

And appreciate that this is far from a worst case. There are many cases of relievers experiencing substantial declines in a single year – Heath Bell with the Marlins, Jim Johnson with the A’s and Tigers, Joe Nathan with the Tigers.   While the risk of a similar Cecil meltdown in 2016 is low, it is not zero.

Next: The Brett Cecil Extension: The Intangibles and Indirects

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Cecil Extension – Intangibles and Indirects

Jim Scott –

As I noted in the financial section, it is likely that the only way to get Brett to re-sign is to overpay.  That is obviously troubling in its own right, but it also has implications elsewhere in the organization.

Mark Shapiro has supposedly been hired to bring small-market-team efficiency to the Jays. The extensions he signed in Cleveland for Carlos Carrasco, Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Grady Sizemore, and Victor Martinez were all signed early in the players’ careers and at team-friendly terms. A generous extension for Brett this early in Shapiro’s tenure would not only be inconsistent with his mandate but would send a very different message to other players, both existing team members and free agents.  How would a generous Cecil contract affect negotiations with Bautista and Encarnacion – not to mention more junior players?

This signing could also send a negative message to potential trade partners.  The Jays are rumoured to be currently looking to acquire bullpen help through trade. What happens to the price of a Carson Smith, or a Zach McAllister – not to mention an Aroldis Chapman – once teams see the price that the Jays are willing to pay for bullpen arms?

In brief, I think that signing an expensive extension for a relief pitcher at this time sends too many of the wrong kinds of messages.

Mat Germain –

The Toronto Blue Jays are at a point where they need to decide who their leaders are and who will take them forward as they have so many players headed towards FA. Sure, we get to look forward to years of Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez, but the Jays do need a veteran presence who can help guide the pen and keep it focused when needed. When I think of the Jays pen and who the leadership is there, I think of Brett Cecil. And the thought of replacing him with another veteran presence that may not perform as well just to save a few bucks doesn’t make any sense to me.

Cecil has always been a Jay, and if the brass is smart they’ll keep it that way. He loves playing in Toronto, he’s performed extremely well vs. the A.L. East which isn’t easy to do, and as a LHP he provides them with dominance that’s hard to get and keep around.

The Jays know Cecil as well as they possibly could. His personality, his medical status, and what he can provide the team. They know he tore his calf muscle, the injury which kept him out of much of the playoffs, and that he had shoulder fatigue earlier in the season. They also know how well he rehabilitated from those issues and how great he was after the shoulder issue. With his reliance on a curve ball via the fastball, you can envision Cecil having a long and relatively injury-free career.

Cecil’s part of the Jays family and taking on another unknown at this point doesn’t seem to make sense. There’s going to be risk involved in any replacement the Jays find. The Jays may be better off going with the risk they know more thoroughly than the risk they don’t know well at all. He’s beloved by his teammates, he gets along well with everyone, and he’s worked extremely hard for the Jays since the day he was drafted.

Next: The Brett Cecil Extension: Closing Arguments

Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

The Brett Cecil Extension: Closing Arguments

Mat Germain –

The case we just went through can be summarized fairly easily. Brett Cecil is a career-long Blue Jay. He managed alright as a starter, but really found a niche as a reliever, where he’s provided the Jays with a dominant LHP to count on game-in, game out.

There’s a 3 year track record to go on, and aside from blips on the radar early on in 2015, he’s outperformed the majority of MLB relievers and matched some of the very best. The finances are there to extend him, and if we assess he’ll match what’s expected to be handed to O’Day, he is well-worth the investment.

Keeping him around provides stability and experience for a pen that sorely needs a larger veteran presence. Allowing that presence to walk away without an extension doesn’t seem to make sense and the intangibles point to him being an extremely important part of the team’s success long-term.

If you really try hard enough, I believe you can pick apart some flaws and use examples of some relievers who don’t live up to their contracts once they earn them. But in Cecil’s case, he’s been able to overcome so much as a Blue Jays pitcher and still come out on top, ready to battle, that you can’t expect a let-down to occur. If anything, I expect it to be entirely the opposite and that he’ll relish the veteran role he’d be handed.

As I said before, I really don’t believe it will cost as much as some think for the Jays to keep Cecil around. However, with the argument I’ve made above, I believe he’s more than worth that kind of investment anyhow. Therefore, my advice is an extension as a similar average cost (most likely slightly less) to what O’Day will earn in 2017. Not signing Cecil to an extension risks the effectiveness of the pen as a whole and short-changes Cecil and fans who deserve to see him remain in Toronto as an important and cherished part of the team.

Jim Scott –

Brett Cecil is a good player, and I hope that the Jays manage to keep him. But there are many red flags about his 2015 performance – his wildly inconsistent splits (first half opponent wOBA of .320 and ERA of 4.66), his sudden jump in pitch values for his sinker and change-up, and his clearly unsustainable 0.00 ERA in the second half. It would be very dangerous for the Jays to pay top dollar based on a career season with so many questions.

I am also concerned with the timing. The success of the Royals, and the lack of high-quality free agent relievers, has made this a seller’s market. If ever there were a time that Brett would demand top dollar, this is it.

Now, it is entirely possible that I am wrong. Brett could agree to sign a team-friendly extension, for fewer years and for less dollars than I project. At the right price and the right term, I would extend him without hesitation. But I think it unlikely that the Jays would get that price, or that term.

To me, whether the Jays can afford to sign Brett (or any player) to a bad contract is not the right question. The better question is whether they should do so. And in my opinion, if overpaying Brett is the only way to get him to extend, the answer is no.

Next: Toronto Blue Jays Top 5 First Basemen of All Time

That completes the debate. Let us know your thoughts and ideas in the comments, as well as whether or not each point was plausible, accurate, or add to them with what we missed!

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