Toronto Blue Jays Organizational Depth: First Base

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Gulf Coast League Blue Jays

Levi Scott, 23 years old, Bats Right, 6’4″ 215 lbs

• Drafted in the 28th round of the 2015 MLB draft
• Previously drafted by the Orioles in the 21st round of the 2013 draft
• Played College ball for the University of Texas in Arlington and majored in exercise science

Stats

You have to believe the Jays expected more from Scott when they assigned him to the GCL. During his last season playing for U of T, he managed 21 extra base hits in 210 AB, showing more power than he showed us in the GCL. His .493 SLG% led his team in college and he really seemed to come on strong when he got the chance to drive in runs, resulting in a team leading 49 RBI.

It’s likely that he’ll still move up to Bluefield and get a shot to redeem himself. Or, if he has a strong enough camp he could find himself on the SS squad in Vancouver. However, he’ll need to bring out his power to remain a prominent prospect within the Jays system with so much competition to go up against.

Rookie League Bluefield Blue Jays

Gabe Clark, 21 years old, Bats Right, 6’0″ 220 lbs

• Drafted by the Jays in the 26th round of the 2015 MLB draft
• Previously played for Oregon State University

Stats

Gabe started his minors career off on the right foot and received a lot of praise for his hard work. However, his strike out rate left something to be desired and he’ll really have to cut that down to get the best out of his powerful bat. He surprised many people by signing with the Jays as a Junior as they expected him to remain with Oregon a little longer. That has to be taken into consideration when examining his performance. He’s essentially between a high school player and a College grad.

There’s reason to expect Gabe will improve on his 2015 performance next season now that he has a good amount of ABs under his belt. There’s a good chance he gets a look in Bluefield once again unless he really impresses his coaches during camp.

Christian Williams, 21 years old, Bats Left, 6’1″ 205 lbs

• Drafted by the Jays in the 16th round of the 2015 MLB draft
• Previously drafted by the Marlins in the 28th round of the 2014 draft

Stats

Williams is less strikeout centric than his teammate but lacks the pop that Clark showed us in Bluefield.  He had such a great start to his season that a promotion to Vancouver seemed to be a possibility, but he regressed and wound up spending the whole season in Bluefield. He had the following to say about the promotion when it seemed to be a possibility:

“I would love to get promoted to Vancouver if I start being more consistent and start playing better, that is the ultimate goal,” said Williams, who has enjoyed playing for manager Dennis Holmberg , who is approaching another landmark in his long career. “Playing here, I would like to win a Mercer Cup first and foremost and get Dennis’ 1,400th win, I know that is big for him.”

There’s a chance that he and Clark get promoted together once again. Whatever happens, they both have to start hitting more consistently, as he puts it, or they’ll soon get bypassed by Vladimir Guerrero and others in the organization.

Next: Our Wildcard prospect is next and stands above all others

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

WILDCARD

Vladimir Guerrero Jr, , Did not play in 2015

• Signed as an international free agent for $3.9 million
• Was the top ranked international prospect as rated by Baseball America for 2015
• Although he’s still listed as a RF and is currently being used at third base, I’d bet more heavily on 1B as a position longterm.

Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote a great article about his signing on July 2nd of this year, a must read. In particular, there’s a level of excitement about this signing that I haven’t seen out of the Jays scouting department. Even when they were able to land the highly sought after Franklin Barreto, the tone was much more muted overall.

Maybe it’s because of his father who was an All-Star for the Montreal Expos for so long, or maybe it’s just because this kid really is that special. We’re hoping for the latter, of course.

It’s pretty great when your own dad’s Baseball Academy can be the one to break the news of your signing on Twitter, as was the case with Vladdy Jr:

Within the article linked above, the best portions entail a series of quotes from the man who spearheaded the efforts to get him to sign with Toronto.

The Blue Jays director of Latin American operations, who has since headed to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Ismael Cruz, was quote as saying the following about Valddy Junior:

On his Power, Pitch Recognition, and Motivation

“Since I’ve been doing this, I haven’t seen a kid with that power,” “He has pitch recognition for the age and this kid has been playing ball all his life. This kid is not about the money. He has a lot of money. He plays because he likes it. He wants to be better than his father.”

On Senior vs Junior

“He has a better bat now than what his father had at that age, and it’s not a swing that’s going to go away,” “He’s had it for a long time and he’s always hit.” “Those guys you don’t come across very often,” “So it was either play all of your marbles on one guy or just go out and get a couple of players that are fine. For us Vladdy Jr.’s a difference-maker. He has the potential to be a very, very special kid.”

And my favourite quote of all about Vladimir Guerrero Jr,

“I don’t think it’s going to be plus speed, but it’s going to be good enough to run four bases after a home run,”

I was blessed to watch Vladimir Guerrero senior play for the Expos for years and appreciate the hand-eye coordination that allowed him to hit balls that almost nobody else could reach. If that gene was passed on to his son, there’s a very good chance that we’re in for a treat in Toronto.

Now that he’s signed a major deal with the Jays and is getting set to play his first season for them, you can expect the pressure to rise season-by-season. It’s never going to get any easier for him, just tougher. But with his father available to help guide him through the process and to support him as he can, there has to be an expectation that he’ll have the support needed to make the best of his tremendous skills.

Vladamir Guerrero Jr is described as a natural born hitter. We’re going to find out how true that is very soon. For now, he’ll remain our wildcard and may soon become the best Jays prospect we’ve ever had if all of the scouting reports are right.

All we know for certain is that self-confidence will not be an issue for this kid, as he expects to reach the majors within 2 years, a lofty goal for a kid that will be 17-years-old when the 2016 season opens.

Next: Now that we know who's best, get swept is next!

View from the pressbox (image courtesy of Charlie Caskey)

Short-Season Vancouver Canadians

Ryan McBroom, 23 years old, Bats Right, 6’3″ 230 lbs

• Drafted in the 15th round of the 2014 MLB draft
• Previously drafted by the Royals in the 13th round of the 2013 draft

Stats

McBroom displayed a ton of power for the Canadians in 2014, and only added to that in 2015 with Lansing. That performance should put his name near the top of the organizational depth at first base in the process, and he will likely begin the 2016 season in Dunedin.

There’s no doubt that his power will play at the position, but we’d like to see him turn a lot of those doubles into HRs from here on. If he’s not capable of doing that, he may be limited offensively to the numbers put up by someone like Lyle Overbay. More gap-to-gap power than HR power. There’s nothing wrong with that, but you need power elsewhere on the club if that’s going to be a fit.

So long as he keeps hitting like this, Ryan will keep getting moved up. Unfortunately for him, the next guy on the list will likely get a look at each level before he gets there, raising the bar of what’s expected offensively.

Low-A Lansing Lugnuts

 Rowdy Tellez, 20 years old, Bats Left,  6’4″ 245 lbs

• Drafted in the 30th round of the 2013 draft
• Received a record setting amount for a 30th rd pick at $850,000
• Jays spent a lot on Tellez after it was evident they wouldn’t be able to sign Phil Bickford

Stats

Without having seen Vladimir Guerrero Jr hit yet, Rowdy Tellez is my favourite 1B prospect in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. His infectious personality, his hitting ability, and even his defensive potential provide for the perfect package that you can’t help but cheer for.

He hit well enough in Lansing through 270 AB to earn a promotion to Dunedin, and he didn’t miss a beat when he got there. He actually improved his OPS after the move, going from .796 to .801, something that’s hard to do when you’re hitting in Dunedin which is notoriously pitcher friendly.

Tellez struck out so little during the 2014 season that the bar was set fairly high for him in 2015. He managed to maintain his power numbers while keeping his strikeout rates to just under 19%. I expect Tellez to begin the season in either Dunedin or New Hampshire. That decision may come down to how quickly the Jays need and want him to be ready for the majors, and how well-equipped they feel he is to handle the pressure and AA pitching.

Here’s a must watch video from both McBroom and Tellez

Next: We head to our Spring Training home next

Mar 3, 2015; Dunedin, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates and Toronto Blue Jays players stand on the field during the singing of the of the countries

High-A Dunedin Blue Jays

 Matt Dean, 22 years old, Bats Right, 6’3″ 215 lbs

• Drafted in the 13th round of the 2011 MLB draft
• Was drafted out of high school, from The Colony HS, Texas

Stats

Matt Dean’s slight performance drop going from Lansing to Dunedin is exactly the kind of small drop-off we expected to see from Tellez when he made the jump. It’s almost an accepted drop. However, in Dean’s case he was able to maintain some really decent power numbers overall and only had one real weakness in 2015, strike outs. If he’s going to be able to hit much in New Hampshire – if he gets promoted – Dean’s going to have to cut down on the strike outs and find a way to make better contact.

Still young, there’s no reason to believe he won’t get a few years to figure it all out in AA and there’s enough potential in his bat to continue to provide him with opportunities to learn.

Double-A New Hampshire

K.C. Hobson, 25 years old, Bats Left, 6’2″ 205 lbs

• Drafted in the 6th round of the 2009 MLB draft by the Jays
• Taken out of Stockdale HS, California

Stats

As you can see above, the statistical hold Hobson has been through over the years has been consistent and doesn’t inspire someone to expect him in MLB any time soon. The one area that provides him with some hope is vs RHP, where he managed a .254/.307/.370 line. It’s not a good line, but it’s not horrible either. It may be enough to buy him some more time in AA or AAA.

Hobson has been in the organization for a very long time and is coming up against the ceiling now, it would seem. As you read through the lower level guys, particularly the Dunedin and Lansing guys, you got to see what’s eventually going to push K.C. out of the way in AA. At this point, I’m not so certain that the Jays are ready to promote him to Buffalo as they may want to sign a minor league free agent or veteran to have available as MLB-ready depth.

Therefore, I don’t expect Hobson to be a part of the organization much longer. His bat just doesn’t play well for the position. I wish him all the best either way and he’s a great person to have had in the organization for so long.

Triple-A Buffalo Bisons

Matt Hague is the incumbent in Buffalo, but I’d still expect the Jays to be aggressive in adding one significant minor league free agent or MLB veteran as a depth piece in Buffalo. The leading candidates I have in mind are:

• Brandon Allen, Casey Kotchman, Neftali Soto, and Brandon Snyder

Next: We end the 1B organizational depth with our Toronto Blue Jays

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Major Leagues Toronto Blue Jays

Chris Colabello, 32 years old, Bats Right, 6’4″ 235 lbs

• Selected off waivers from the Minnesota Twins on December 8th, 2014
• The robbery was later reported to the FBI after the Twins witnessed his 2015 season

Stats

Justin Smoak, 28 years old, Bats Both, 6’4″ 230 lbs

• Signed as a free agent by the Jays after he became a free agent in 2014
• Was initially obtained by the Jays through waivers from the Mariners

Edwin Encarnacion, 32 years old, Bats Right, 6’1″ 230 lbs

• Obtained by the Jays initially through the trade of Scott Rolen in 2009
• Re-obtained by the Jays after losing him to the Athletics through waivers in 2010

The three incumbents at first base for the Toronto Blue Jays sure set the bar sky high for the prospects looking to make it to The Show in the future. They each provide something different and are all very capable defensive players. The Jays have no problem putting any of the three on the field at 1B in any game and in any situation.

It’s really a strength of the club that was enhanced greatly when they found an unexpected gem in Colabello. He’s under control for so long (through 2020) that if his breakout season wasn’t a fluke, the Jays could have 1B covered for years to come. Smoak will try to regain the edge he once had and is still young enough to do so. The fact that he’s a switch hitter doesn’t hurt, but he’ll have to improve his pitch recognition and have a better plan at the plate to get ahead of Colabello at this point.

With Edwin Encarnacion heading into a contract year, you have to expect he’ll give you 100% every single game and may hit better than he ever has. That’s a scary proposition and one of the many reasons I believe the 2016 Toronto Blue Jays will be extremely hard to stop.

Whatever the case, within the Jays organization, we seem to have 1B very well covered.

If I had to rank the non-MLB first basemen within the organization, it would be as follows:

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
2. Rowdy Tellez
3. Ryan McBroom
4. Matt Dean
5. Gabe Clark
6. Enmanuel Moreta
7. Levi Scott
8. K.C. Hobson
9. Christian Williams

Hope you enjoyed this Organizational Depth article for first-basemen within the Toronto Blue Jays Organization. There’s no shortfall of talent at this position in the system or on the Jays MLB roster. It’s going to be a strength for years to come and I don’t expect them to do anything but continue to get better over time.