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Blue Jays vs A.L. East: Positional Rankings As of 15 Nov

By Mat Germain |
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Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Blue Jays vs A.L. East Teams, As of 15 Nov ’15

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays /

Toronto Blue Jays

Throughout the offseason, I’ll attempt to keep you up-to-date about how each A.L. East team compares to the others. This will be done on a position by position basis, using the depth charts as listed on MLB.com in order to ensure the focus is on the comparison and not on who is the starter.

Scores will be kept by ranking with 1 being the best on a 1 to 5 scale. The team with the lowest score at the end has the best outlook going forward and so on.

The comparisons will be done a few times, particularly after major changes are made to one or many of the lineups. Hopefully this will help provide an assessment of where things stand and how each team is doing in shaping its roster heading towards the 2016 MLB season.

Next: Comparing Backstops

CATCHERS

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The Jays continue to have the most established and best 2-way catcher of the bunch but others are likely catching up (pun intended). McCann is always going to be an offensive force, while Swihart in particular could take a big step forward this season for the Red Sox. Curt Casali came out of nowhere last season to give the Rays some unexpected pop from behind the plate, and Wieters returns to Baltimore with the hopes for a healthy season after two hard seasons.

Side Note: We should all remember that Josh Donaldson can also get behind the plate if the Jays are in a pinch. He has over 3508 innings behind the plate in the minors through 6 levels and managed a .981 fielding percentage, throwing out 38% of runners overall. The subject came up during the playoffs when the Jays were in extra innings, had already used Martin, and Navarro was hit by a pitch.

Ranking: 1. Martin, 2. McCann, 3. Wieters, 4. Swihart, 5. Rivera

Next: How Does 1B Stack Up?

Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

FIRST BASEMEN

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The Jays and Yankees dominate the first base position within the A.L. East. There’s no doubt about that. Hanley Ramirez can’t be the answer there for the Red Sox long-term, but there’s really no where else to put him. It would be interesting to see if they could deal him and sign Chris Davis, but that’s a long shot considering his salary and makeup. The Rays are sound with Loney there and recently added Morrison who can DH as well.

Side Notes: The situation gets worse for the Red Sox when they play without the DH since they’re forced to use David Ortiz or go without his bat for the majority of the game. On the flip side, all of the three top options for the Blue Jays have the ability to play above-average at first base, giving them plenty of depth to mitigate injuries and still getting a great bat regardless of which one is playing each day. As for the O’s, they may be able to bring back Davis which would move them up significantly, but at this point it could go either way.

Ranking: 1. Teixeira, 2. Colabello, 3. Ramirez, 4. Loney, 5. TBD

Next: Ranking AL East Second Basemen

Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

SECOND BASEMEN

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There’s going to be a lot of arguing about whether the Jays should trade Devon Travis or keep him and use Goins as a utility player, but either way the Jays may get the best defensive player at the position. IF Travis earns the job and his bat is as advertised, he could give Pedroia a run for his money as the top 2B in the A.L. East. The surprise from last season was the performance of Forsythe who really took over the position for the Rays and had a great year overall. If he can replicate that, he’ll take 2nd or 3rd in the division.

Rob Refsnyder was supposed to earn the 2B job in NY to begin the season but lost the opportunity to Stephen Drew who provided some pop but not much else. When he did get his shot, he made the most of it with a .302/.348/.512 line in his short stint (47 PA). He could be a difference maker for an infield that needs to get younger in NY.

Side Note: Jon Berti was listed as the 3rd option for the Jays but has yet to play in MLB. He played all positions last year except for 1B and RF, indicating that the Jays may be preparing him to fulfil a utility role. If the Jays deal either Goins or Travis, he could earn a bench spot. His highlight in use offensively would be his effectiveness vs LHP, as shown by his .373/.431/.475 line in AA.

Ranking: 1. Pedroia, 2. Travis, 3. Schoop, 4. Forsythe, 5. Refsnyder

Next: Ranking Shortstops in the AL East

Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

SHORTSTOPS

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This is the position where the Jays made their biggest jump in recent years. In two trades, they went from having one of the most obscure SS in MLB to one of the top 3-4. If he stays healthy for the majority of the season, Tulo gives the Toronto Blue Jays a big edge at SS. Bogaerts will be giving Tulo his best competition, and the Rays obtained Miller in hopes that the best is yet to come for him. He does have pop in his bat. Meanwhile, I think the Yankees were hoping for more offensive output from Didi when they traded for him, but with his getting closer to his prime, he could also surprise many in 2016.

Side Note: The Orioles played Machado at SS often at the end of 2015. I’m not saying he’ll begin the season there as of today, but if they can acquire a 3B – a FA or someone like David Wright – he could shift to the position he grew up playing. If he does, he becomes the best SS in the A.L. East, without contest.

Ranking: 1. Tulowitzki, 2. Bogaerts, 3. Hardy, 4. Miller, 5. Gregorius

Next: How Does the Hot Corner Stack Up?

Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

THIRD BASEMEN

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Possibly the strongest position for the A.L. East, it highlights the importance of having a great player at the hot corner. The bringer of rain showed everyone how it’s done, and close behind him is the just mentioned Machado. If that’s not enough star power, the Rays have their stud in Evan Longoria who can hold his own when healthy. Bringing up the rear are Sandoval and Chase Headley who didn’t have the greatest of seasons in 2015 but could turn it on in 2016. It’s a lot of fun to watch the top 3 play and we’re blessed to have such great competition at the position.

Side Note: As if the allure of a possible World Series win isn’t enough, Josh Donaldson is going to be playing for another huge raise this season. If he’s set to make $12.9m as advertised in his 2nd year of arbitration, how much will he make in his 3rd and 4th years? It’s a good thing the Jays have lots of money coming off the books after this season ($36 million if they let their big 3 walk) because he’s going to cost them quite a bit.

Ranking: 1. Donaldson, 2. Machado, 3. Longoria, 4. Headley, 5. Sandoval

Next: Ranking Out in Left Field

Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

LEFT FIELDERS

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Left Field is another area of strength for the A.L. East as each team has a great incumbent at the position. All of them can hit, all of them defend well, and each has a big role to fill in their lineup. There’s no clear winner or leader in this category and even ranking them is pretty difficult to do. However, based on a balanced player, I would put Revere and Bradley at the top of the heap.

If we could guarantee that the Gardner of the first half of 2015 would play as such in 2016, we could put him in there with them. However, his slide in the second half of the season really tempered expectations. And finally, both Jennings and Reimold have dealt with injuries in recent years that have set them back. Each can get back to form and play with the best of them if fully healthy.

Side Note: The difference for the Jays may be the depth they now have with a hopeful return of Michael Saunders to the lineup. With his LHB, and Pompey to share time with, there’s a decent chance that Revere actually gets moved so that the Jays can add another big starter to the rotation.

Ranking: 1. Bradley Jr, 2. Revere, 3. Gardner, 4. Jennings, 5. Reimold

Next: Straight Away Center Field

Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

CENTRE FIELDERS

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When you begin the conversation with Kiermaier, Pillar, Betts and Jones, you’re talking about four Gold-Glove caliber centre-fielders that provide highlight reel catches weekly. Add Ellsbury to that group and you’re not going further down if at all. It’s the strongest position in the A.L. East through all 5 teams and there isn’t much that gets by these guys. As such, we rank them but know that they all have the ability to be the best on any given night. Aside from the age and health of Ellsbury, the remainder are expected to lead their teams up-the-middle without question.

Side Note: Aaron Hicks who was picked up by the Yankees may get a chance to start for them in the OF. If he does, there’s a chance that he forces Ellsbury over to LF. With his 5-tool ability and semi-breakout season behind him, he may be the best bet to unseat any of the 5 listed above.

Ranking: 1. Jones, 2. Betts, 3. Kiermaier, 4. Pillar, 5. Ellsbury

Next: Who's the Best RF in the AL East?

Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

RIGHT FIELDERS

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There’s no controversy about which team has the best RF in the A.L. East as Jose “the flip” Bautista leads the way. Behind him we find the power of Souza who missed some time to injury, and the complete game of breakout candidate Castillo. Beltran takes the last spot but may be replace by Gardner if Ellsbury shifts to LF and Hicks is able to take over CF. In that case, he still winds up last of the 4 so it doesn’t change much. The Orioles, meanwhile, have a lot of work to do in the OF if they’re going to compete in 2016. Look for them to be extremely active on the FA market.

Side Note: The Orioles don’t have a valid RF in their roster and they certainly don’t have anyone at the upper level of the minors waiting to step in. Of all the A.L. East teams, they need to invest big time in their lineup or they’re going to plummet in the standings like a lead weight. They are apparently taking a long hard look at Ah-seop Son of South Korea.

Ranking: 1. Bautista, 2. Souza, 3. Castillo, 4. Beltran (Gardner), 5. TBD

Next: Is Edwin the BEst DH in the East?

Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

DESIGNATED HITTERS

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There was a time when DH in the A.L. meant David Ortiz and then everyone else. But as the 2015 season wore on and it was obvious that the Jays were better off resting Encarnacion, he became their stud at the position in the lineup. Then we have the surprise start of Alex Rodriguez who I still hate to even write about because for all I know he’s still cheating his way to millions of dollars. Morrison or Butler for the Rays and Paredes for the Orioles take the last 2 spots and are pretty weak options at that spot on their respective clubs.

Side Note: There’s a very good chance that A-ROD will share time next season at DH with Carlos Beltran. With both of them playing at the 40 and 38 age marks respectively, they’re going to need to get used to even less time on the field than both stars are used to getting. There’s no telling how it will impact their timings at the plate, but it will definitely be an adjustment for both of them.

Ranking: 1. Encarnacion, 2. Rodriguez/Beltran, 3. Ortiz, 4. Morrison, 5. Paredes

Next: Who's the Ace of the East?

Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

STARTING PITCHER #1

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I will be the first to admit that I believed Tanaka’s arm was going to fall off after it was announced that he had a partial tear of his UCL. He wound up pitching 154 innings of sub 1.00 Whip and won exactly half of his starts. As miraculous as that was, it doesn’t come close to Stroman’s rise to the playoffs after he tore his ACL and returned to action within the same season. That’s why I have him ahead of the others, he’s all heart and talent.

And that’s why whenever the Jays had trade talks, despite the injury every single team asked for Stroman first. Cobb’s a great ace for the Rays while Tillman is more than capable of shutting down any opposing team. Only Buchholz stands out like a sore thumb on this list. He’s the outlier and there’s no way he remains their top option going into the 2016 season.

Side Note: It’s doubtful that David Price goes to Boston since he isn’t likely to be effective in the A.L. long-term when his fastball velocity diminishes. Therefore, I’m thinking they’re likely to target either Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, or Jordan Zimmermann on the FA Market. Expect one of those 3 in Boston soon, in which case they’d likely slot 1st or 2nd on this list.

Ranking: 1. Stroman, 2. Tanaka, 3. Cobb, 4. Tillman, 5. Buchholz

Next: Ranking the AL East #2 Starters

Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

STARTING PITCHER #2

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It’s funny how only those who saw Estrada’s performance throughout the season and playoffs appreciate how much his game grew and how dominant he was. There’s one major reason the Jays want to bring back Dioner Navarro and he’s it. That combination baffled hitters all season long. After all, if I told you an A.L. East pitcher would throw 181 inning and only give up 134 hits, who would you name first?

Most wouldn’t name Estrada within their first 7 guesses, but that’s what he did. His 1.044 Whip was also outstanding. Still, it’s not enough to beat out Chris Archer who struck out 252 hitters over 212 innings of work. Pineda is up and down like a yo-yo and the other two would be 5th starters or pen options on most clubs.

Side Note: Again, the Red Sox – and Orioles – are looking to add to their rotations and are likely to address their shortcomings there. With new management in Boston, one that’s aggressive about setting up it’s top 3 SP options, there’s a chance they’ll add two of the top five SP options on the FA market. Until then, this is how things stand.

Ranking: 1. Archer, 2. Estrada, 3. Pineda, 4. Gonzalez, 5. Porcello

Next: Ranking Mid-Rotation Arms

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

STARTING PITCHER #3

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Drew Smyly may be the most under-rated pitcher in the A.L. and is well ahead of the others on the #3 list. He dealt with injuries through part of 2015, which limited his innings, but his 3.11 ERA and 1.17 whip were good enough to earn top spot on this list. Although, if Dickey can replicate his second half of the season from 2015 and make it a season long thing, he could surprise many. Jimenez is really even with Dickey on this list as both are volatile at this point. Eovaldi could eat up innings for the Yankees and Miley, well, is Miley.

Side Note: Dickey may be old but he’s durable and seems to find a way to get the job done no matter what. He’s going to be a critical piece to the Jays season and he knows it may be his last with the Jays as he becomes a FA after this season. As a knuckleballer, he can put in a few more years easily and still be effective. The point here is that he’s going to be extra motivated to both win a World Series and set himself up for a new contract.

Ranking: 1. Smyly, 2. Dickey 3. Jimenez, 4. Eovaldi, 5. Miley

Next: Who is the Best #4 Starter?

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

STARTING PITCHER #4

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Maybe it’s just me but I consider Eduardo the best pitcher the Red Sox have. In fact, if the Jays and Red Sox were to merge their rotations and keep the best 5 only, he would be the only one to make the cut from Boston. They have a horrific rotation and he is the only highlight. The Rays, meanwhile, can enjoy the likes of Odorizzi in the 4th spot with his 3.35 ERA and 1.15 Whip over 28 starts in 2015. A wealth of SP in Tampa? That’s an understatement.

Meanwhile, the Yankees join the Red Sox with a seriously questionable rotation so far. Look for both teams to make big additions and changes before the season begins. The Jays don’t really have a 4th starter unless they plan on extending Sanchez well beyond his innings limit, so they could add another starter. Gaussman may be the biggest question mark on this list. He could be a stud or a dud, time will tell.

Side Note: As we all know C.C. has been dealing with some personal issues that we all hope he gets through and comes out on top of. However, his issue doesn’t really have an impact on these rankings since whether it’s him or the likely replacement – Ivan Nova – we like each less than all of the other options at #4.

Ranking: 1. Odorizzi, 2. Rodriguez, 3. Gaussman, 4. Sanchez, 5. Sabathia/Nova

Next: Ranking the 5th Spot in the Rotation

Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

STARTING PITCHER #5

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If the Jays could somehow trade for Severino, I would ask them to. This kid has a tremendously high ceiling and is set to open up a lot of eyes in 2016. His 1.20 Whip was a sneak peak at what he’ll accomplish in the near future and he may very well open up the season as their #2 starter once Spring Training is in the books. Ramirez could be replaced by Matt Moore if he can return to form after dealing with injuries, but for now, he’s their best option in the 5th spot.

If it wasn’t for this performances at home, Hutchison would be last on this list and I would not be surprised at all if he’s forced to earn his way back into the role with lots of competition in camp. Kelly has some promise for Boston but still gives up too many runs while pitching in the A.L. Wright will likely face too much competition to keep this spot when the season opens.

Side Note: I’m expecting Henry Owens to be the in the Red Sox rotation when the season opens and if he is, he’d slot in 3rd on this list ahead of Hutchison. The Lefty’s got some real promise and will join Rodriguez to revamp the Red Sox pitching staff that was an embarrassment in 2015, as well all predicted.

Ranking: 1. Severino, 2. Ramirez, 3. Hutchison, 4. Kelly, 5. Wright

Next: Putting a Call to the Bullpen

Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

BULLPENS (EXLUDING SETUP AND CLOSERS)

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I wanted to avoid looking at these guys as individuals since I believe that their value is entirely depended on how the pens are built amongst their respective teams. This is an area where the Red Sox and Rays dominate. They each have high quality long-relief options, great lefties, and a group that offers different arm angles and looks. Meanwhile, the Yankees have great pieces like Shreve and Warren who can eat up innings when needed.

The Jays continue to frustrate me by not investing enough money in this portion of the team, particularly when it’s obviously their biggest weakness at this point. It was most evident by the lack of confidence Gibbons showed in all of them during the playoffs. The loss of O’Day for the Orioles really kills their depth in this area.

Side Note: This is one area of these teams that is 100% going to be altered often between now and when the season opens. We’ll evaluate them more closely when the season nears, but at this point, the standings are as listed below.

Ranking: 1. Red Sox, 2. Rays, 3. Yankees, 4. Jays, 5. Orioles

Next: Who's the Best at Setting Up?

Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

SETUP

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Betances continues to lead this group but is now joined by Uehara who dealt with injuries for much of 2015. The acquisition of Kimbrel really shortened the games for the Red Sox and gives them as dominant a duo as the Yankees enjoyed in 2015 with Miller and Betances. The Jays, meanwhile, had youth in that role and now face some uncertainty there and in the rotation. Matusz took a long time to get established in MLB but now looks very comfortable in the pen. If always healthy, there’s no doubt McGee could close on most teams, he just hasn’t been able to put many healthy seasons together to prove himself.

Side Note: Injuries derailed the end of the season for Cecil but he’s expected to be fully healthy in 2016. However, if the Jays acquire another significant SP, he may cede his setup spot to Aaron Sanchez as he’d likely return to the pen unless he unseats Drew Hutchison in the 5th starter spot. Either way, the Jays are well positioned in the setup role.

Ranking: 1. Betances, 2. Uehara, 3. Cecil, 4. Matusz, 5. McGee

Next: Who's the Best Closer in the AL East?

Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

CLOSERS

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I’m very tentative about placing Kimbrel ahead of Miller and others who are A.L. tested but his stuff is so good that you have to expect for him to be as effective as usual. All five teams have outstanding options at closer and there’s really no shame in being 5th amongst this group. One thing’s certain when you face A.L. East teams, you better have the lead heading into the 9th inning because if you don’t, you’re unlikely to tie it up or make a comeback.

Side Note: There’s a decent chance that the Jays look to bring Osuna back to the rotation because of his repertoire and easy delivery. If that’s to happen, look for them to add a very significant closer before the season begins, someone like Aroldis Chapman or Mark Melancon.

Ranking: 1. Kimbrel, 2. Miller, 3. Osuna, 4. Britton, 5. Boxberger

Next: How Does All of This Add Up?

Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

FINAL THOUGHTS AND RANKINGS

If we tally up all of the position scores, we end up with the following rankings (lowest number is best):

  1. Blue Jays 38
  2. Red Sox 48
  3. Rays 53
  4. Yankees 53
  5. Orioles 64

Next: Blue Jays Bring Back Entire Coaching Staff for 2016

If the season were to open today, that’s what I’d put up as my expected standings at the end of the season. I put the Rays ahead of the Yankees only because I trust their pitching more than the Yankess pitching.

Things are already looking good for the Jays if we base things on what I listed in this article. Hopefully they address the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation and strengthen their pen. If that happens, this team may be unstoppable in 2016.

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