Blue Jays offseason: 5 realistic free agent starters

Entering the 2016 season, the Blue Jays face many questions with their starting rotation. R.A Dickey and Marcus Stroman will resume where they left off in 2015. With Mark Buehrle retiring and Marco Estrada and David Price headed towards free agency, those vacant spots will need to be addressed in the offseason. Regardless of whether the Blue Jays promote Aaron Sanchez or Roberto Osuna to a starting role, there are some free agent options the Blue Jays should consider.

Jeff Samardzija

Signing The Shark might be a risky pickup. So lets look at the positives and negatives of his potential signing.

Positives –

1. Was regarded as one of the best available  pitchers two seasons ago
2. His recent play has brought his asking price down

Negatives –

1. His performance this year…

Samardzija, in 2014, pitched 219.2 IP with an ERA of 2.99 and a 4.1 WAR. At a tad younger than 30 years old, Jeff was playing his best baseball in his prime years. In the 2014 offseason, Samardzija was traded to the revitalized Chicago White Sox. He was regarded as the number one starter for Chicago entering a contract year, but like most things regarding the White Sox this year – things didn’t go as planned. Samardzija pitched 200+ innings again but would post a 4.23 ERA.

More from Jays Journal

• Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays advance to the Championship Series
• Blue Jays: Comparisons for Alek Manoah’s Second Season
• Blue Jays: Adam Cimber, the unlikely decision King
• Toronto Blue Jays: Has the Shift Killed Kevin Gausman’s 2022 Cy Young Hopes?
• Blue Jays: What Yusei Kikuchi’s latest stumble should mean

A lot of fans were shocked with the level of play they saw out of Samardzija this year. With a FIP of 4.23, we can’t blame his entire poor season on the lackluster White Sox defense. Samardzija’s strikeout stuff seemed to vanish from the start of the season (K/9 2014: 8.28 – 2015: 6.86). In 2014, Samardzija loved working from side to side in the strike zone. With an amazing cutter/slider combo, Samardzija was able to keep batters on their heels, swinging at pitches way outside the zone, contributing to his high 2014 GB% of 50.2%.

Samardzija also carries a mid-90s four-seam fastball which he can locate just about anywhere for strikes. Coming through the minor league system, one of Samardzija’s huge areas of concern was his fastball control, but he seemed to fix that in 2014, which was a contributing factor to his success.

In 2015, it seemed like those fastball control problems may have snuck back into Jeff’s game. Throughout the season, Samardzija started relying more on his breaking balls. His fastball was used 15.6% less in 2015, and his two seamer, (one of his best pitches in 2014) was used 15.3% less. With just breaking balls, Samardzjia became predictable the second and third time through the order.

*Samardzija’s pitch value comparison

Samardzija did have some glimpses of his old self. Against the Blue Jays in Chicago, he’d pitch a complete game shutout, and against the Tigers later in the year throwing a one hitter. The White Sox have extended a qualifying offer to Samardzija, who might be a great candidate to be the first person to accept. Samardzija could take the $15.8 Million, prove his ace status under a one year contract and sign that big contract like he was expecting to entering this year. Samardzija did post a WAR of 2.7 this year, but giving him big money over a long period of time with this huge inconsistency year to year might be risky. However, at the right price, Samardzija might be worth that risk.

Next: One of this market's top value arms from Texas...

If you can’t beat them, sign them! Yovani Gallardo has been impossible for the Blue Jays to figure out in the past. Against the Blue Jays, Yovani posts a regular season record of 3-0/19.4IP/3ER. The Blue Jays aren’t the only team Gallardo beats up on, posting a sub-4.00ERA six out of seven seasons he has pitched at least 150 innings. Gallardo will be one of the most steady free agents to hit the market this year, and will certainly gain a lot of attention from teams.

In 2014 with the Texas Rangers, Gallardo would post one his best years to date, pitching 184.1 innings with a 3.42 ERA and 2.5WAR. In the offseason, the righty Gallardo will turn 30 years old, and some indications of wear and tear are starting to pop up in Gallardo’s numbers. In the past four years Gallardo’s K/9 has dropped an average of .88 per year (nearly a strikeout a game) which is huge for a starter who throws a low-90s fastball and has some pretty inefficient off speed pitches. This can be scary for a pitcher known to be susceptible to giving up a lot of home runs. We said the same thing about Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, and Marco Estrada, and they have seemed to handle the somewhat home-run-happy Rogers Centre pretty well.

The Rangers have extended a qualifying offer to Gallardo, which he will most likely decline in the next few days, as he is most likely going to get a great pay check this offseason. Signing for four or five years at twelve/thirteen million a season, due to his age, Gallardo will most likely have a team option attached to that contract. This is a heavy price to pay if you ignore some of the trends that are happening in Gallardo’s numbers but it’s the price you have to pay for consistent starting pitching.

Next: If the Jays look for a lefty, Brett on this guy...

The lefty Brett Anderson had a breakout year pitching with the Los Angeles Dodgers, filling out the back end of their rotation behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. This past year Anderson pitched 180.1 innings to a 3.69ERA and a 1.7 WAR. As a starter, Anderson has a career 3.72 ERA in 674.1 innings pitched. With infield defense being a strong suit for the Blue Jays now, that plays right into Anderson’s style of play.

With that lifetime ERA at 3.72, Anderson has a FIP of 3.63 and the highest ground ball percentage in the MLB in 2015 at 66.3%! As mentioned before, Toronto boasts a ton of fly ball pitchers, so in a ball park that is home run prone, it would be nice to see that amazing infield defense play such a big impact on Anderson’s game.

More from Toronto Blue Jays News

• Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays advance to the Championship Series
• Blue Jays: Comparisons for Alek Manoah’s Second Season
• Blue Jays: Adam Cimber, the unlikely decision King
• Toronto Blue Jays: Has the Shift Killed Kevin Gausman’s 2022 Cy Young Hopes?
• Blue Jays: What Yusei Kikuchi’s latest stumble should mean

Anderson does come with a lot of red flags as well. Anderson’s fastball, which averages in the low-90s, has been one of his most inconsistent pitches year in and year out. Dipping down to a wFB -4.8 this year, Anderson lives using his fastball/slider combo as his two off speed pitches have been consistently negative pitches every year. Anderson’s numbers this past year were still stellar even with his shaky fastball, relying heavily on his slider, (wSL 8.3) a dip in that slider efficiency could be devastating for him.

The main concern here is that Anderson will turn 28 years old in the offseason, and in his short time in the majors, Anderson has been on the 60-day disabled list five times with almost every injury imaginable. This season with the Dodgers was Anderson’s first healthy year. The worst kind of pitcher is the one who doesn’t show up every fifth day, especially in such an uncertain Toronto rotation. (The main reason why R.A. Dickey is so effective here)

When signing any player, teams go into extensive research regarding past health problems. Maybe since Anderson has injured in so many different ways it could be chalked up to bad luck? With that history though, it might scare off a lot of teams willing to offer Anderson a longer term deal. Assuming the Dodgers don’t show off how big their pockets are, the Blue Jays have the potential to sign Anderson for a two or three year contract worth around twenty-five to thirty million dollars.

Next: Next up? The priciest of the realistic options...

Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Leake might be the best bang for your buck on this list. The number eight pick in the 2009 draft has logged a ton of solid innings over the past three years. Leake might not be blowing up the radar gun, or racking up strike outs like some of the other pitchers in this list, but with his average BB% of 5.9% and his average of .99 HR/9 over the past three season, Leake eats through innings while avoiding a lot of trouble.

In 2015 Leake would put up another solid season. Pitching with both the Cincinnati Reds, and San Fransisco Giants, Leake posted a 3.70ERA in 192 IP. Leake relies heavily on his sinker, which he can throw in the low nineties for consistent strikes. With a cutter, curve, slider, change, and the occasional four-seam fastball, Leake can throw all of his pitches for consistent strikes, attacking the zone early in the count and inducing some weaker contact in the following pitches. Leake has proved to be a consistent pitcher in small ballparks like Great American Ballpark, making his possible transition into the Rogers Centre smooth.

Leake hasn’t headlined many free agent discussions thus far this off season, but at only 27 years old, Leake has the potential to become an All-Star in this league. Leake will most likely get deal worth $14-17 million annually.