Blue Jays offseason: 5 realistic free agent starters

Entering the 2016 season, the Blue Jays face many questions with their starting rotation. R.A Dickey and Marcus Stroman will resume where they left off in 2015. With Mark Buehrle retiring and Marco Estrada and David Price headed towards free agency, those vacant spots will need to be addressed in the offseason. Regardless of whether the Blue Jays promote Aaron Sanchez or Roberto Osuna to a starting role, there are some free agent options the Blue Jays should consider.

Jeff Samardzija

Signing The Shark might be a risky pickup. So lets look at the positives and negatives of his potential signing.

Positives –

1. Was regarded as one of the best available  pitchers two seasons ago
2. His recent play has brought his asking price down

Negatives –

1. His performance this year…

Samardzija, in 2014, pitched 219.2 IP with an ERA of 2.99 and a 4.1 WAR. At a tad younger than 30 years old, Jeff was playing his best baseball in his prime years. In the 2014 offseason, Samardzija was traded to the revitalized Chicago White Sox. He was regarded as the number one starter for Chicago entering a contract year, but like most things regarding the White Sox this year – things didn’t go as planned. Samardzija pitched 200+ innings again but would post a 4.23 ERA.

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A lot of fans were shocked with the level of play they saw out of Samardzija this year. With a FIP of 4.23, we can’t blame his entire poor season on the lackluster White Sox defense. Samardzija’s strikeout stuff seemed to vanish from the start of the season (K/9 2014: 8.28 – 2015: 6.86). In 2014, Samardzija loved working from side to side in the strike zone. With an amazing cutter/slider combo, Samardzija was able to keep batters on their heels, swinging at pitches way outside the zone, contributing to his high 2014 GB% of 50.2%.

Samardzija also carries a mid-90s four-seam fastball which he can locate just about anywhere for strikes. Coming through the minor league system, one of Samardzija’s huge areas of concern was his fastball control, but he seemed to fix that in 2014, which was a contributing factor to his success.

In 2015, it seemed like those fastball control problems may have snuck back into Jeff’s game. Throughout the season, Samardzija started relying more on his breaking balls. His fastball was used 15.6% less in 2015, and his two seamer, (one of his best pitches in 2014) was used 15.3% less. With just breaking balls, Samardzjia became predictable the second and third time through the order.

*Samardzija’s pitch value comparison

Samardzija did have some glimpses of his old self. Against the Blue Jays in Chicago, he’d pitch a complete game shutout, and against the Tigers later in the year throwing a one hitter. The White Sox have extended a qualifying offer to Samardzija, who might be a great candidate to be the first person to accept. Samardzija could take the $15.8 Million, prove his ace status under a one year contract and sign that big contract like he was expecting to entering this year. Samardzija did post a WAR of 2.7 this year, but giving him big money over a long period of time with this huge inconsistency year to year might be risky. However, at the right price, Samardzija might be worth that risk.

Next: One of this market's top value arms from Texas...

If you can’t beat them, sign them! Yovani Gallardo has been impossible for the Blue Jays to figure out in the past. Against the Blue Jays, Yovani posts a regular season record of 3-0/19.4IP/3ER. The Blue Jays aren’t the only team Gallardo beats up on, posting a sub-4.00ERA six out of seven seasons he has pitched at least 150 innings. Gallardo will be one of the most steady free agents to hit the market this year, and will certainly gain a lot of attention from teams.

In 2014 with the Texas Rangers, Gallardo would post one his best years to date, pitching 184.1 innings with a 3.42 ERA and 2.5WAR. In the offseason, the righty Gallardo will turn 30 years old, and some indications of wear and tear are starting to pop up in Gallardo’s numbers. In the past four years Gallardo’s K/9 has dropped an average of .88 per year (nearly a strikeout a game) which is huge for a starter who throws a low-90s fastball and has some pretty inefficient off speed pitches. This can be scary for a pitcher known to be susceptible to giving up a lot of home runs. We said the same thing about Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, and Marco Estrada, and they have seemed to handle the somewhat home-run-happy Rogers Centre pretty well.

The Rangers have extended a qualifying offer to Gallardo, which he will most likely decline in the next few days, as he is most likely going to get a great pay check this offseason. Signing for four or five years at twelve/thirteen million a season, due to his age, Gallardo will most likely have a team option attached to that contract. This is a heavy price to pay if you ignore some of the trends that are happening in Gallardo’s numbers but it’s the price you have to pay for consistent starting pitching.

Next: If the Jays look for a lefty, Brett on this guy...

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

After signing five different contracts in six year with the Washington Nationals, Jordan Zimmerman looks to get a bit more job security entering this offseason. Zimmerman was offered a qualifying offer by the Nationals, but will most likely decline the offer – you can only play so long in a constant string of contract years looming over your every pitch. Zimmerman has been nothing but the epitome of a consistent starting pitcher. Some of his numbers would suggest he’s nearing an ace-level status, but not even at thirty years old yet, Zimmerman is still looking for that dominating break-out season.

Since 2012, Zimmerman has made at least 32 starts a year pitching an average of 202.1 innings per season. In that time, Zimmerman’s ERA has been below 3.00 on two different occasions and the two time All-Star has posted a consistent WAR of 3.8 (average) in that four year stretch.

Zimmerman, in 2015, posted another solid season. Pitching to a 3.66ERA in 201.2 IP, Zimmerman had solid numbers despite having poor performance from his fastball, arguably his best pitch. From 2011-2014 Zimmerman’s average wFB was 9.2, but in 2015, that number dipped all the way to -10.6. Although his Slider and Curveball remain consistent year in and year out, that fastball performance is what will take Zimmerman to that next level of dominance.

Zimmerman will attract mid-to high level money from a lot of teams. At the end of 2013, Zimmerman signed a short term/big money contract, getting twenty-four million over two years. Zimmerman is going to be a hot topic over the next few weeks of the offseason. His value could potentially flirt with $20 million per season.

Next: Looking to patch a hole? Add a Leake...

Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Leake might be the best bang for your buck on this list. The number eight pick in the 2009 draft has logged a ton of solid innings over the past three years. Leake might not be blowing up the radar gun, or racking up strike outs like some of the other pitchers in this list, but with his average BB% of 5.9% and his average of .99 HR/9 over the past three season, Leake eats through innings while avoiding a lot of trouble.

In 2015 Leake would put up another solid season. Pitching with both the Cincinnati Reds, and San Fransisco Giants, Leake posted a 3.70ERA in 192 IP. Leake relies heavily on his sinker, which he can throw in the low nineties for consistent strikes. With a cutter, curve, slider, change, and the occasional four-seam fastball, Leake can throw all of his pitches for consistent strikes, attacking the zone early in the count and inducing some weaker contact in the following pitches. Leake has proved to be a consistent pitcher in small ballparks like Great American Ballpark, making his possible transition into the Rogers Centre smooth.

Leake hasn’t headlined many free agent discussions thus far this off season, but at only 27 years old, Leake has the potential to become an All-Star in this league. Leake will most likely get deal worth $14-17 million annually.