Blue Jays offseason: 5 realistic free agent starters

If you can’t beat them, sign them! Yovani Gallardo has been impossible for the Blue Jays to figure out in the past. Against the Blue Jays, Yovani posts a regular season record of 3-0/19.4IP/3ER. The Blue Jays aren’t the only team Gallardo beats up on, posting a sub-4.00ERA six out of seven seasons he has pitched at least 150 innings. Gallardo will be one of the most steady free agents to hit the market this year, and will certainly gain a lot of attention from teams.

In 2014 with the Texas Rangers, Gallardo would post one his best years to date, pitching 184.1 innings with a 3.42 ERA and 2.5WAR. In the offseason, the righty Gallardo will turn 30 years old, and some indications of wear and tear are starting to pop up in Gallardo’s numbers. In the past four years Gallardo’s K/9 has dropped an average of .88 per year (nearly a strikeout a game) which is huge for a starter who throws a low-90s fastball and has some pretty inefficient off speed pitches. This can be scary for a pitcher known to be susceptible to giving up a lot of home runs. We said the same thing about Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, and Marco Estrada, and they have seemed to handle the somewhat home-run-happy Rogers Centre pretty well.

The Rangers have extended a qualifying offer to Gallardo, which he will most likely decline in the next few days, as he is most likely going to get a great pay check this offseason. Signing for four or five years at twelve/thirteen million a season, due to his age, Gallardo will most likely have a team option attached to that contract. This is a heavy price to pay if you ignore some of the trends that are happening in Gallardo’s numbers but it’s the price you have to pay for consistent starting pitching.

Next: If the Jays look for a lefty, Brett on this guy...

The lefty Brett Anderson had a breakout year pitching with the Los Angeles Dodgers, filling out the back end of their rotation behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. This past year Anderson pitched 180.1 innings to a 3.69ERA and a 1.7 WAR. As a starter, Anderson has a career 3.72 ERA in 674.1 innings pitched. With infield defense being a strong suit for the Blue Jays now, that plays right into Anderson’s style of play.

With that lifetime ERA at 3.72, Anderson has a FIP of 3.63 and the highest ground ball percentage in the MLB in 2015 at 66.3%! As mentioned before, Toronto boasts a ton of fly ball pitchers, so in a ball park that is home run prone, it would be nice to see that amazing infield defense play such a big impact on Anderson’s game.

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Anderson does come with a lot of red flags as well. Anderson’s fastball, which averages in the low-90s, has been one of his most inconsistent pitches year in and year out. Dipping down to a wFB -4.8 this year, Anderson lives using his fastball/slider combo as his two off speed pitches have been consistently negative pitches every year. Anderson’s numbers this past year were still stellar even with his shaky fastball, relying heavily on his slider, (wSL 8.3) a dip in that slider efficiency could be devastating for him.

The main concern here is that Anderson will turn 28 years old in the offseason, and in his short time in the majors, Anderson has been on the 60-day disabled list five times with almost every injury imaginable. This season with the Dodgers was Anderson’s first healthy year. The worst kind of pitcher is the one who doesn’t show up every fifth day, especially in such an uncertain Toronto rotation. (The main reason why R.A. Dickey is so effective here)

When signing any player, teams go into extensive research regarding past health problems. Maybe since Anderson has injured in so many different ways it could be chalked up to bad luck? With that history though, it might scare off a lot of teams willing to offer Anderson a longer term deal. Assuming the Dodgers don’t show off how big their pockets are, the Blue Jays have the potential to sign Anderson for a two or three year contract worth around twenty-five to thirty million dollars.

Next: Next up? The priciest of the realistic options...

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After signing five different contracts in six year with the Washington Nationals, Jordan Zimmerman looks to get a bit more job security entering this offseason. Zimmerman was offered a qualifying offer by the Nationals, but will most likely decline the offer – you can only play so long in a constant string of contract years looming over your every pitch. Zimmerman has been nothing but the epitome of a consistent starting pitcher. Some of his numbers would suggest he’s nearing an ace-level status, but not even at thirty years old yet, Zimmerman is still looking for that dominating break-out season.

Since 2012, Zimmerman has made at least 32 starts a year pitching an average of 202.1 innings per season. In that time, Zimmerman’s ERA has been below 3.00 on two different occasions and the two time All-Star has posted a consistent WAR of 3.8 (average) in that four year stretch.

Zimmerman, in 2015, posted another solid season. Pitching to a 3.66ERA in 201.2 IP, Zimmerman had solid numbers despite having poor performance from his fastball, arguably his best pitch. From 2011-2014 Zimmerman’s average wFB was 9.2, but in 2015, that number dipped all the way to -10.6. Although his Slider and Curveball remain consistent year in and year out, that fastball performance is what will take Zimmerman to that next level of dominance.

Zimmerman will attract mid-to high level money from a lot of teams. At the end of 2013, Zimmerman signed a short term/big money contract, getting twenty-four million over two years. Zimmerman is going to be a hot topic over the next few weeks of the offseason. His value could potentially flirt with $20 million per season.

Next: Looking to patch a hole? Add a Leake...

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Mike Leake might be the best bang for your buck on this list. The number eight pick in the 2009 draft has logged a ton of solid innings over the past three years. Leake might not be blowing up the radar gun, or racking up strike outs like some of the other pitchers in this list, but with his average BB% of 5.9% and his average of .99 HR/9 over the past three season, Leake eats through innings while avoiding a lot of trouble.

In 2015 Leake would put up another solid season. Pitching with both the Cincinnati Reds, and San Fransisco Giants, Leake posted a 3.70ERA in 192 IP. Leake relies heavily on his sinker, which he can throw in the low nineties for consistent strikes. With a cutter, curve, slider, change, and the occasional four-seam fastball, Leake can throw all of his pitches for consistent strikes, attacking the zone early in the count and inducing some weaker contact in the following pitches. Leake has proved to be a consistent pitcher in small ballparks like Great American Ballpark, making his possible transition into the Rogers Centre smooth.

Leake hasn’t headlined many free agent discussions thus far this off season, but at only 27 years old, Leake has the potential to become an All-Star in this league. Leake will most likely get deal worth $14-17 million annually.