Blue Jays offseason: 6 questions to answer before 2016

Aug 1, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos talks with Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons (right) during batting practice before a game against the Kansas City Royals at Rogers Centre. The Kansas City Royals won 7-6. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays are in offseason mode, like it or not. This will be a quick flip of the switch for the front office, who have been holding meetings regarding free agent and trade possibilities for some time now. Every offseason will have question marks, but this time around in Toronto, they’re of a different variety.

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For two decades, the Blue Jays brass sought out ways to overtake the mighty Yankees and Red Sox in the American League East. Toronto operated from a starting point of ‘zero’ most offseasons, trying to get something going. Anything. Now, their starting point is finally an advantageous position. Instead of building, the Blue Jays must now adjust and tinker their already-strong roster.

Ahead, we’ll look at six questions that must be answered before first pitch is thrown in 2016. Before any of those are addressed, though, Blue Jays ownership and incoming president Mark Shapiro will need to determine who exactly will be handling them. General manager Alex Anthopoulos is likelier to return than not after a season that saw him become a star in Toronto, but until we see the press conference, there will be uncertainty.

The majority of Toronto’s roster is due to return, including nearly every member of their league-best offense. The pitching rotation, however, is another story. Let’s start with that question, and work our way towards the debate I expect to spend much of the offseason on…

Next: Q1: Questions abound in the starting rotation

Oct 21, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marco Estrada (25) reacts after leaving the game during the eighth inning against the Kansas City Royals in game five of the ALCS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Q1: Who joins Marcus Stroman and R.A. Dickey in the rotation?

Stroman is the only guaranteed holdover from the season-ending rotation in 2015, but I’m confident that the $12 million option on R.A. Dickey will be picked up by the club fairly quickly. First off, the Jays will look to their three departing arms.

Mark Buehrle is unlikely to return to Toronto even if he continues his Major League career, but expect the organization to hone in on both Marco Estrada and David Price. With Estrada, Toronto could opt to extend a qualifying offer to the 32-year old coming off a breakout season.

This is a risky proposition considering the high potential for regression, but if the offer is given to Estrada, the only two outcomes for the Jays are rotation security or a high draft pick. Estrada has expressed a desire to return to Toronto, too, so the club could also work on a multi-year extension.

While offering up $25-$30 million annually to David Price may go well for the first half of the contract, so many of those mega-deals turn sour in the latter half and tie the hands of franchises. Frankly, it’s impossible to forecast the state of a franchise six years down the road. Toronto will be in a  crowded derby there, and while his time in Toronto could help, my expectations are fairly low.

Then, there’s the in-house options. The AAA and prospect ranks don’t offer many arms ready to push for an MLB spot, but Aaron Sanchez should quickly thrust himself into the competition. Things were finally beginning to click for the right-hander before his injury earlier in the year, and an offseason of positional certainty could benefit him.

There’s also Liam Hendriks, who enjoyed a career breakthrough as a reliever in 2015, bumping his velocity like none of us expected. I’d prefer to leave well enough alone, but the temptation will be there. Perhaps no conversation will be more polarizing than the one surrounding Roberto Osuna, though. More on that later…

Next: Q2: Making sense of the backup backstop

Sep 22, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Dioner Navarro (30) batting in the fourth inning against New York Yankees at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

Q2: Who backs up Russell Martin at catcher?

The Toronto Blue Jays enjoyed one of the league’s strongest catching duos in 2015, but Dioner Navarro‘s expiring contract makes the backup job the only positional blank entering 2016. If at all possible, re-signing Navarro needs to be a priority.

Organizational depth is thin at catcher as we continue to clench our teeth and wait for former first rounder Max Pentecost to even begin realizing his potential. Josh Thole will exist on as long as R.A. Dickey does, but outside of catching the knuckleball, he represents a dead spot on the roster.

Navarro offers up bench value as a switch-hit bat, but his work with Estrada and Buehrle in 2015 again displayed how underrated he is behind the plate. He did enjoy a career year against the opposing running game, but it is Navaro’s excellence in game management and pitch calling that sets him apart.

The biggest stumbling block here will be Navarro’s interest from elsewhere, as he’s surely looking to find one more shot at a starting gig. There’s a reason that Toronto struggled to find a trade partner early in the season, however, and with the young catching talent across the league currently, Navarro’s market could last well into free agency. If that’s the case, Toronto would be wise to re-invest in him. Besides, Russell Martin has some big money remaining on that deal, and he needs protecting.

Next: Q3: The logjam in the outfield

Oct 23, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Toronto Blue Jays left fielder Ben Revere (7) catches a fly ball at the wall hit by Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (not pictured) in the seventh inning in game six of the ALCS at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Q3: How will the logjam in left field sort itself out?

Left field is lining up to be a good problem for the Blue Jays, but with at least three quality options, it could be one of their more difficult seasons. For the sake of discussion, let’s work on the assumption that all three of Ben Revere, Michael Saunders and Dalton Pompey remain with the Blue Jays until the Winter Meetings. Will any of these names be floated in trade talks?

Pompey will be an obvious target if the Blue Jays take to the trade market in search of an impact starter, while Revere’s value could allow the Jays to re-allocate assets elsewhere, perhaps a depth starter or bullpen help. Saunders, at this point, may not have the value to produce a worthwhile net return.

If the three remain throughout the entire offseason, there’s also a chance the Jays keep Pompey in AAA to continue his development. Revere showed his limitations this season, but if his bat is kept towards the bottom of the lineup, he’s an excellent option. Saunders, if healthy and given regular at-bats, could have some dark horse potential. Don’t forget about a man named Anthony Alford, either, who represents another blue chip outfield prospect behind Pompey.

The rumblings of moving Jose Bautista to first base will always exist, but I don’t think that’s something we’ll be seeing next season, or ever. Kevin Pillar‘s defense alone should help him stay an impact centre-fielder, so let the game of musical chairs in left field begin…

Next: Q4: Will the back end be back again?

Oct 21, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Chris Colabello (15) hits a home run during the second inning against the Kansas City Royals in game five of the ALCS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Q5: Will the Blue Jays consider adding another bat?

This question should be the one most easily met with “Huh!?”, but I feel there’s a legitimate discussion to be had here. At the time of the Troy Tulowitzki trade, Anthopoulos made a point of saying that a run added is just as good as a run saved, so could the Blue Jays attempt to send their offense into overdrive by adding another bat, possibly to the 1B/DH position?

I’ve already heard the Chris Davis suggestion more times than I can count, which is a beautiful pipe dream but little more. Will the Jays be satisfied with Chris Colabello and Justin Smoak manning the other half of the 1B/DH dynamic with Edwin Encarnacion, though? I hesitate to believe that Smoak is capable of starting every day in this lineup, and Colabello doesn’t have the longest track record of sustainable success.

Considering both Encarnacion’s injury tendencies and the fact that he’s entering the final year of his contract (an option year), the Jays could always choose to put themselves ahead of the game. Even a depth bat could be an option, as that’s exactly how Colabello began his career with the Jays.

One place I’m confident the Blue Jays will add positional depth is in the middle infield. With Cliff Pennington hitting free agency and Munenori Kawasaki just not the answer, Toronto will look to bolster their AAA depth behind Tulowitzki, Goins and Travis. MLB-ready prospect depth at those positions is not strong, so expect to see some veteran additions.

Next: Q6: The hot-button topic of the offseason

Oct 14, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Roberto Osuna reacts after defeating the Texas Rangers in game five of the ALDS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

Q6: Will the Jays be tempted to start Roberto Osuna?

Roberto Osuna was a surprise addition to the Blue Jays 25-man roster out of spring training, and even then, Miguel Castro was expected to outshine the young Mexican right-hander. Instead, Osuna proved to be potentially the highest-ceiling young arm in the Blue Jays organization.

Appearing in 68 regular season games, Osuna recorded a 2.58 ERA, striking out 9.7 batters per nine innings and saving 20 ball games once being moved into the closer’s role. At just 20 years of age, and not turning 21 until February, it’s difficult to wrap your head around the career trajectory here.

The temptation will be there to move Osuna into a starting role, and I can hear the worn-out line already: “Why wouldn’t you want 200 innings of this guy?”  Innings aren’t the issue here, the issue is quality. Osuna came up as a starting pitcher, and I’d trust him to move into the role with great maturity, but is this another spot where Toronto needs to leave well enough alone?

The Jays have a closer with truly elite potential, a small salary and years of team control. The 2015 season taught us that the closer’s role truly isn’t for everybody, but Osuna consistently rose to the occasion. I’d love to see him remain in the role and even be used more freely by John Gibbons going forward.

Regardless of the decision, though, my one wish is that the Jays stick with it. Starter or closer. Don’t jerk Osuna around.

Next: Blue Jays 2015 season is a step forward, and that's OK

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