Blue Jays: 5 ways the Royals will push Toronto in the ALCS

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The ALDS comeback certainly proved to Blue Jays fans that, if this team wasn’t a legitimate favorite before, they are now. Game five was one of the greatest Blue Jays games in history, and will hopefully not be the last memorable game of the 2015 season. Now is not the time to reminisce about the ALDS, it’s onto the next one for the Blue Jays!

We took a similar look at how the Texas Rangers would push the Blue Jays in the Division Series, so while I don’t appear to be a Blue Jays fan, I can assure you I am! Entering the Rangers series, I really was a bit worried about an early exit. Obviously I was proven wrong – you should see how my preseason guess of a Mariners vs Nationals World Series is looking about now.

The Jays, however, could match up much better against the Royals, but that does not mean this series is going to be a walk in the park. The Royals are a very very good team. They were the most consistent ball club in the American League throughout the season, and they were a hit away from winning the World Series just a year ago. So with first pitch nearing, here are some reasons why the Blue Jays should be worried.

Next: History of Bullpen Success

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The Potential of KC’s Bullpen

The Royals dominated the entire 2014 postseason with their lockdown bullpen. During that time, the Royals basically played 6 inning games with the strongest back end of the bullpen in the MLB.

Unfortunately for the Royals, their primary closer Greg Holland, who helped that amazing 2014 run, required Tommy John Surgery this September.

You can see that in 2014 Holland was one of the best relievers in the MLB. Starting out 2015, Holland wasn’t pitching with the same consistency. Holland’s K% dropped 12.1%, with that his BB% increased 5.2%. GB% and FB% stayed the same but the effectiveness of Hollands’ fastball and slider dropped significantly. His fastball velocity dropped 2.1mph, and was being hit for harder contact. Holland definitely struggled in 2015, most likely feeling the early effects of his impending Tommy John Surgery. With Hollands injury, it not only weakened the bullpen, but forced other players to step up into higher leverage roles.

Even without Holland, the back end of the Royals bullpen still remains strong. In the setup role is the hard throwing Kelvin Herrera. Although Herrera hasn’t been as sharp this year, (1.41ERA in 2014, 2.71ERA in 2015) his extremely effective four seamer, which touches 100mph at times, and deadly changeup can stump the best of batters. On the upside for the Blue Jays, Herrera has had his struggles against righty bats this year. In 2014, Herrera was a righty expert and struggled with lefties, but in 2015 Herrera has done a complete 180.

In the closers role is probably one of the best relievers in the game, Wade Davis. Unlike Holland and Herrera, Davis’ stats have remained consistent year to year and throughout the playoffs this season. Davis posted a 0.94ERA in 67.1IP in 2015. In the 2015 postseason, Davis has pitched in 3 games, going 4IP, only allowing 2 base runners on one hit. Neither of those base runners scored. The only true way to beat Davis is by making sure that bullpen door doesn’t open late in the game.

Next: Those Royals have Got Glove

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Kansas City’s Team Defense

When you look up and down the Blue Jays batting lineup, you would think it’s a fantasy team, with everyone batting 1-6 a power threat, and 1-9 being all strong bats. I get the same feeling when looking at the Royals defensive alignment.

With four Golden Gloves on the field, the Royals will make plays that will shock you.

The Royals ranked the 10th best team ERA in 2015 at 3.73 (looking at the FIP numbers for five of their pitchers including Edinson Volquez, Wade Davis, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, and Franklin Morales). Those pitchers on average improved their ERA .608 just by the players standing behind them. Wade Davis had the biggest improvement with a FIP of 2.29!

Without the historically amazing defence of the Royals, the pitching staff might be one of the worst in the league.

Next: A strategy that promotes consistency

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A Strategy that Promotes Consistency

In the “5 Reasons the Blue Jays Should Fear the Rangers” article from the ALDS, I referenced how many IP and AB’s the total Rangers team had, and how valuable that could have been to their success. As I was watching the series I thought to myself ,“Experience in the playoffs means absolutely nothing unless it’s QIP or QAB (Quality Innings Pitched and Quality At Bats).”

History and the Baseball Gods

Just because something happened 30 years ago doesn’t mean it isn’t fun to talk about it. These two teams have playoff history, back in 1985 when they played in the ALCS against each other. This 1985 series was a true heartbreaker for the Jays. The 1985 Jays won a franchise-record 99 games and they were making the playoffs for the first time since their expansion. The Blue Jays would take a commanding 3-1 series lead, scoring 3 runs in the top of the ninth to win game four and be one win away from going to their first World Series.

Led by George Brett and the rest of the 1985 Royals team, the Royals would go onto win the next 3 games and take the series 4-3. It would take the Blue Jays 4 more seasons to get back into the playoffs, while the Royals would go onto beat the Cardinals in seven games, in the “I-70 series”, for their first and only World Series. The Royals were a dominant team during the late 70’s and early 80’s, and they seem to be that same dominate team of the American League now.

I know these teams two teams probably don’t care too much about history (I know the Cubs certainly don’t entering the NLCS) but it is fun to look back at the battle these teams once had. Will history repeat itself, or can Toronto turn the tables?

Next: Will home field advantage haunt the Jays?

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Will home field advantage haunt the Jays?

Personally I wasn’t a huge fan of the Jays posing as the Bisons for the last games of the season. I understand that it’s a long season and some of the position players like Josh Donaldson and Kevin Pillar have logged 1000+ innings, and you fear the risk of injury in games that don’t mean TOO much. But the poor performance in the last series against Tampa Bay allowed the Royals to gain home field advantage.

The simple fact is that the Blue Jays are a better team when they play in the Rogers Centre, and the same rules applied this year for the Royals. The Blue Jays were 53-28 at home and 40-41away, while the Royals 51-30 at home and 44-37 away from Kauffman.

The Blue Jays have proved to us this Post Season that where they play, even with their backs against the wall, doesn’t seem matter at all. The Royals have shown the same in the past two post seasons, coming up with clutch wins on the road, winning the Wild Card game in Oakland, and sweeping the ALDS and ALCS. If this series stretches to a seventh game, there will be some fans that are unhappy to see it played in KC.

Stats Provided by Fangraphs

Next: 5 Reasons NOT to Fear The Royals

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