Blue Jays: 5 reasons not to fear the Kansas City Royals

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Oct 14, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays players celebrate on the field after defeating the Texas Rangers in game five of the ALDS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

With a wild ALDS behind us, the Blue Jays look to take on the American League leading Royals for the ALCS. The Rangers proved to be quite the opponent, and no doubt a new rivalry has been forged between the two teams. The Royals were also able to vanquish a Texas team by taking a pretty commanding win of their own in Game 5. Now, the Blue Jays are in Kansas City to determine whether or not Royals will be repeat American League Champions. It’s a tall order, but the as the Blue Jays proved with the Rangers, you should never count Toronto out.

The Royals bring a team that has never had to worry about their positional standings this season. They emerged as the best team in the AL Central right out of the gate, dispatching any notion that the Tigers would continue to reign. They then quickly asserted themselves as the best team in the AL, as the West and East Divisions proved to be more competitive than they have in years past.

That said, the Royals had their struggles down the home stretch. The additions of Cueto and Zobrist provided a minimal difference to team. Fortunately for them, their early successes made up for their late season shortcomings. Yet, in a time where the Jays consolidated themselves and proved to be a team with few weaknesses, the Royals showcased their flaws and how pronounced they are. The first of which is their frontline starters.

Next: Rotation Woes?

Sep 3, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitchers Johnny Cueto (left) and Jordano Ventura (right) look on from the dugout against the Detroit Tigers during the sixth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Starting Rotation

While the Blue Jays’ pitching saw a resurgence in the second half that left Toronto with one of the best starting rotations for the latter half of the season, the Royals spent the year being middle-of-the-road rotation and struggling to find a true ace. Johnny Cueto was brought on to be that Ace. Yet, the Ace who pitched to a 7-6 record with a 2.62 ERA saw his time in KC be less favorable as he posted a 4-7 record with an ERA of 4.76.

While Cueto has shown flashes of brilliance as a Royal, he has not been the remedy that the Royals so desperately needed. Instead, their rotation continued to struggle down the stretch. A part of the Royals’ success has been removing their starters early and let their dominant bullpen do the rest. This has already proven problematic for the Royals this post season, as their starters simply aren’t used to going deep into games. So while their bullpen might be commanding, their starting rotation won’t be as much a problem for the Jays as an entirely right handed staff should.

Elsewhere in their rotation they have Yordano Ventura, Kris Medlin, and Edison Volquez who have all been hit or miss all year. Where Cueto was supposed to provide a calming effect, much like David Price did for the Blue Jays, his continued struggles only made the difficulties of the Royals’ rotation more pronounced.

When the Jays laned their Ace, their luck changed. Price is sensational, Dickey rebounded and pitched some of the best two months of his career, and Estrada continued to baffle batters and statisticians alike. When your Ace no longer comes with the clout and fear of one, it’s time to wonder if the Royal’s rotation can hold up. If they can’t, the bullpen will see even more work.

Next: Cracks in the armor of the Royals' Pen?

Oct 12, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Ryan Madson (46) reacts after Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) hits a two-run home run during the seventh inning in game four of the ALDS at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Breaking the Bullpen

Heading into this season, many believed that the Royals’ biggest strength as a team was their bullpen. While it might still be, there are underlying fractures in the armor that led the Royals to the World Series last year. Since August, key relievers have struggled to get their jobs done. The normally rock solid duo of Herrera and Hochevar allowed opponent’s OPS’ of .857 and .806 respectively during the last moth of the season. The Royals lost their closer in Greg Holland and were forced to promote Wade Davis to the role. A job he’s done well, but by forcing the #1 set up man in baseball to take over the duties as closer, your new setup man isn’t the #1 set up man in baseball.

Indeed the postseason has not been kind to many of the Royals’ relievers. Ryan Madson and Danny Duffy had ERA’s of over 9 during the course of the ALDS. Duffy figures to be a key matchup pitcher as he’s the key lefty on an all right handed pitching staff. While right handed pitchers fare better against the Blue Jays than their southpawed counterparts, you don’t want your matchup pitcher to have an ERA of 13. While some are calling for the pen to be the downfall for the Jays, these cracks in the armour mean they’re far from doomed. Especially if an overworked relief corpse begins to break down.

Next: Martin guns down runners

Sep 18, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Russell Martin (55) throws to first base to force out Boston Red Sox third baseman Brock Holt (not pictured) in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals Run

The Royals had a robust Team Stolen Base count of 104, good enough for fifth best in the MLB, second best in the AL (the dispatched Astros were first). The Royals are a scrappy team able to turn runs out of singles. So while they don’t have the collective power of the Jays, they take advantage of each and every hit. The Royals have the second, third, and seventeenth best baserunners in the AL in Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, and Alcides Escobar. The only current Jay to crack that mark was Kevin Pillar in fifth.

Yet while the Royals’ running game is nearly unmatched, Martin’s cannon and control is a force to be reckoned with all on its own. Russel Martin boasted a .444 Caught Stealing Percentage, which tied him with Wilson Ramos as first on that list. Martin is a weapon against the opponents running game as his total Stolen Bases Allowed of 40 ranks him third best in the Majors and his total Caught Stealing of 32 is good enough for second in the Majors. So while the Royals like to run, Russell Martin has firmly established himself as a strong stopper to a running team. The Royals may still run, but at their own risk.

Next: We'll bring the bats

Oct 14, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista hits a three-run home run against the Texas Rangers in the 7th inning in game five of the ALDS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

We Have the Bats

While the Royals can certainly manufacture runs, the Jays are no slouches when it comes to putting up numbers. The Royals are heralded as being efficient, but the Blue Jays are heralded as being deadly. It will come as no surprise that the Blue Jays rank ahead of the Royals in most offensive categories. While the Royals come ahead of the Jays in total hits over the course of the year, the Blue Jays make up for with plate discipline.

The Jays led all of Baseball with 570 walks. The Royals, on the other hand, ranked 29^th in the Majors. So it’s clear that no strategy is superior to another strategy. Scoring runs is all that matters, and you’ll take them anyway you can get them.

Yet the Blue Jays have the clear upper hand when it comes to the long ball. The trio of Morales, Moustakas, and Hosmer might be offputting, but the trio of Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion is downright terrifying. In fact, the combined numbers put up by these three (252 Runs, 62 HR’s, 191 RBI’s) is closer matched to the trio of Martin, Smoak, and Pillar (196 Runs, 53 HR, 192 RBI’s) than it is to the murders row perched atop the Blue Jays lineup. So while the Royals get contribution from all parts of their lineup, so do the Jays. It’s telling when batters 2-4 stack up closer with batters 5-7. That’s how you know you’ve got a good club.

Next: Home away from home

Oct 11, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (2) celebrates with right fielder Jose Bautista after defeating the Texas Rangers in game three of the ALDS at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Home is Just a Word

Earlier this week when the Blue Jays were down 0-2 heading into Texas, it seemed like our luck had finally run out. We all know that wasn’t the case, taking both games in Texas before winning the fifth in Toronto. So while the Royals may be able to begin the series at home, that doesn’t entitle them to any form of “home field advantage”. In two games in Arlington, the Blue Jays outscored the Rangers 13-5. In three games in Toronto, the Rangers outscored the Blue Jays 14-13. Granted it is a small sample size, but it proves that the Blue Jays are just as capable of playing on the road as they are at home.

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