5 Reasons the Blue Jays Will Win ALDS Game 5

Oct 12, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Roberto Osuna (54) celebrates with catcher Russell Martin (55) after defeating the Texas Rangers in game four of the ALDS at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Blue Jays won 8-4. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are going back to Toronto to play the final game of the ALDS. Just days ago this was a feet few thought possible. With a day of rest we are left to reflect on the last four games, and how they will impact game 5. While there is frenzy over the Price as relief situation that unfolded in last night’s game, the fact remains the same. We won the Baseball game. There will be time enough to worry about that decision when the Jay’s season is over. Which it isn’t.

While our collective hearts have been racing during the past few days, today’s do or die game will take the cake. Every pitch will be important, and our hearts will be working over time trying to manage the stress and excitement that comes with this level of game. In games three and four we saw our Blue Jays, after a couple days of adjustment it finally looks like the Jays we grew accustomed to during August and September are back. Just in time too.

The Blue Jays have the momentum in Game 5, and I believe it is their game to lose. They have so much going for them, the first of which is actually Cole Hamels…

Next: Cracking Cole Hamels

Oct 9, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Cole Hamels throws a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays in the second inning in game two of the ALDS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Cole Hamels

Betsided

Yes, Cole Hamels is the undisputed Ace of the Rangers club this post season, but Cole Hamels is also a lefty. Over the course of the year the Blue Jays compiled a Team Average of .278, with an OBP of .354 and an OPS of .818. In other words, the Blue Jays are very good against Left Handed pitchers. While Hamels has been strong all season, and was especially strong in Game 2, he did show signs of weakness. He let up 4 runs (2 earned) over seven innings.

While that’s overtly a strong stat line, he was pitching against a rather unorthodox Blue Jays strategy, swing-or-bust, which as we know, didn’t really work out in our favor. That said, the Blue Jays have made multiple strides over the last two games to get back to the team we know them to be. Hopefully Monday’s 8-4 win is a sign of more to come.

Like all pitchers, Hamels has the occasional odd start. Given that the Rangers have won his last 11 decisions, odds would state he’s due for that odd start sooner rather than later. Pitching against the Jays in Toronto with everything on the line might just be what makes the Rangers’ Ace crack. If the Jays do get to him early, as I believe they will, there isn’t a lot of support for the Rangers behind him.

Next: Breaking the Bullpen

Oct 9, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Roberto Osuna throws a pitch against the Texas Rangers in the 9th inning in game two of the ALDS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Beleaguered Bullpen

Toronto Blue Jays

I expect we’ll see something akin to Game 4 happen in Game 5, this time for the Rangers. If Hamels isn’t himself, I expect the Rangers will try to yank him early and put in Yovani Gallardo as a stopper. This prospect is a frightening one, as scoring runs against Hamels and Gallardo is a daunting task. That said, it’s the last best chance for the Rangers. Friday’s Game 2 saw both teams go deep into their bullpen, having to pitch a combined 7 innings after each of their starters went 7 innings into the game. With Saturday’s rest day, both teams had the chance to rejuvenate.

However over the last two games in Texas, the Rangers have relied on their bullpen (not including Colby Lewis’ relief appearance from last night) for a total of 8 innings spread between 6 relievers. On the other hand the Blue Jays needed to use relievers a total of 3.2 innings spread between 4 relievers (also excluding Price’s relief appearance last night). Should the game go long, or Blue Jays pry deep into the Rangers pen, the odds look good for the Blue Jays.

While it’s likely we should expect Hamels into Gallardo for the game today, the Rangers should expect seeing Stroman into Price/Estrada/A primed bullpen. Meaning the Rangers must not only be on their defensive and pitching games, but they’d need to crack a very tough nut in the Blue Jay’s rested and ready to go Bullpen. Which is good if we look at the team splits.

Next: Home, Sweet Home

Oct 9, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson (20) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Texas Rangers in the first inning in game two of the ALDS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Blue Jays are Better at Home

Betsided

While this series currently defies that statement, through the 2015 regular season the Blue Jays posted a Home record of 53-38 and an Away record of 40-41. This should give all Jays fans tremendous confidence as the Blue Jays take Game 5 back to Toronto. Not only do they have the momentum of winning both the away games, they have the history to prove that home games are where they win. That said, the Rangers splits are the opposite. They had a home record of 43-38 which is worse than their away record of 45-36. That said, the Blue Jays home record is a good 6 games above the Rangers’ away record.

Putting the stats aside, we can see a bevy of other factors that would all indicate the Jays as the favorite to win today. They have home field advantage, have the ability to walk off a tie game, are used to playing on Rogers Centre turf, and most importantly, have an entire nation backing them.

If the Rangers were nervous or jittery during the first two games, those nerves and jitters will be magnified tenfold as they have to stop a two game losing streak while similarly not letting the roaring of the Jays faithful get to them. A tall order, one I’m glad the Jays don’t have to contend with.

Next: Time for the Stro-Show

Oct 9, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marcus Stroman (6) throws a pitch against the Texas Rangers in the first inning in game two of the ALDS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

The Stro-Show

Toronto Blue Jays

Marcus Stroman resilience and dedication got him back to the season when no one thought he would. Once he arrived in the lineup he immediately made an impact, to the tune of a 5-0 record with an ERA of 1.67 in 27 innings of work. While he had a bit of a hiccup on Friday night, he still managed to go 7 innings letting up only 3 earned runs, and was in line for the win until the bullpen coughed up the lead.

Marcus Stroman hasn’t pitched against slouches either. His first appearance came in the Bronx against the Evil Empire, and he let up 3 runs over 5 innings as the Jays ended up winning it 10-7. During his five starts this season, the Blue Jays won those starts with a combined score of 35-10. His first outing was the only outing in which Stroman didn’t go at least 7 innings.

With multiple weapons in his arsenal, including a devastating curveball, (a pitch the Rangers are not good at hitting), the focus should not be on whether Stroman can outduel Hamels, but if Hamels can outduel Stroman. Stroman has the electric stuff that has made him a bona fide Ace. The question today will not be whether he can support his team, but whether his team can support him like they have all season. His story is not over, nor is the Blue Jays.

Next: The Blue Jays are on an Historic Run