5 Reasons the Blue Jays Shouldn’t Fear the Rangers

Oct 2, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher David Price (14) smiles in the dugout during the fifth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Pitching

Both teams went shopping for an ace and both teams got one. The Rangers were able to land Cole Hamels prior to the July 31^st Trade Deadline. Hamels has gone 7-1 in 12 games pitched for the Rangers with a 3.66 ERA along the way. While that’s all well and good, pitching remained an issue for the Rangers in the second half. The Rangers team ERA for the 2015 season was 4.24, which ranks them 23^rd in the Major Leagues.

Birds Watcher

By contrast the Blue Jays who’s pitching improved on all fronts ended the season with a team ERA of 3.80 which was good enough for 12^th in the Majors. So while Cole Hamels has been a fine contributor for the Rangers. He didn’t ignite a wave of efficiency and change the way David Price has.

The Rangers will also be taking at least two lefties against the Jays, something that’s music to the ears of Jay’s fans. Colby Lewis, the original choice for the Ranger’s fourth starter has faltered down the stretch, not making it out of the 5^th in his last two starts of the season. Both ended in losses for the Rangers. This could force the Rangers to choose Martin Perez, another leftie, as their fourth starter instead. Neither is an appealing choice.

Especially given that Derek Holland struggled down the stretch pitching with a 2-3 record in September with a monthly ERA of 6.60. This makes Yovani Gallardo, whose been magnificent against the Blue Jays all season, the only favored pitching matchup the Rangers have against the Blue Jays. If I was a betting man, I’d bet on Price, Dickey, Estrada, and Stroman to go the distance over Gallardo, Hamels, Holland and Lewis any day of the week. Of course, not all the damage is the Pitching staff’s fault…

Next: Too Many Errors?

Sep 28, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor (12) cannot field the ball hit by Detroit Tigers third baseman Andrew Romine (not pictured) during the third inning at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Defense

The Blue Jays have had the benefit of seeing highlight reel plays from every member of the starting 9. The Rangers, not so much. This season the Rangers committed 119 Errors which ranks them third in the league. The Blue Jays on the other hand are tied for Nineteenth with the playoff bound Mets and Royals with 88 Errors for the year. The Rangers’ offense score runs often, but the frequency of their defense is much scarcer.

Toronto Blue Jays

Taking it a step further, the Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) for the Rangers is a lack luster .689 which ranks them 17^th in the Majors. The Blue Jays are tied for first with an impressive .908. DER is a statistical tool that compares the efficiency that balls hit in play (not Home Runs) to how they are handled. Thus a team like the Jays, that has been defensive juggernaut of late, not surprisingly is at the top of the list.

The Rangers’ team just isn’t particularly savvy at playing solid defense. Normally fantastic defenders, Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus are responsible for 39 Errors overall. Add in Rougned Odor’s 17 at second and the trio of Ranger’s infielders committed 56 of the team total. That’s near half. Add in the defensive limitations of often injured Josh Hammilton and Shin Soo Choo, and it’s clear to see that the Rangers won’t be laying it out there. Like we see Pillar, Revere, and Goins do daily.

This isn’t to say they can’t get the job done, they often do. But there is a clear disparity between the two teams and their ability and willingness to go all in. Look at Donaldson feverishly trying to run out the ball to first during the 14-5 blowout last month in Arlington. I don’t think we’ll see Hammilton or Fielder be doing that anytime soon. Speaking of big bats…

Next: How great is that offense?

Sep 30, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) celebrates with teammates after hitting a solo home run in the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Toronto Blue Jays defeated Baltimore Orioles 15-2 and clinched the A.L. East division. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

How Big Are Those Bats?

It’s no secret that the Rangers have a talented offense. They have plenty of big bats throughout their starting 9. And quite a few guys who can come off the bench and do it too. The Rangers as a team made it to the playoffs with a resurgence of their offense and revitalization of their pitching. But how potent is that offense really? The Rangers scored a total of 751 runs this season which is good for third place among all teams.

Birds Watcher

This is of course behind the Jays’ ridiculous 891 runs scored. So pretty even match? The Blue Jays not only mashed runs all season, but they did so with a run differential of 221 runs. That’s still good for first. The Rangers? Their run differential is 18. Which ranks 14^th in the Majors. So while the Rangers can mash, they sure let their opponents do as well.

If we are looking at an arms race of big bats, let’s look at the big three from each team. The trio of Fielder, Moreland, and Choo combined for 223 Runs, 68 Home Runs, and 265 RBI’s. Let’s contrast this to our own big three (you know who they are), who compiled 324 Runs, 120 Home Runs, and 348 RBI’s.  The numbers put up by the Rangers’ big three resemble the number the numbers that our 4-6 guys do.

The Rangers feature some profile and powerful heavy lifters, but the bottom their order as struggled mightily to contribute. The Rangers have also struggled with more than their share of injuries this year as well. Which has limited their plate appearances and as mentioned before their defensive capabilities. They’ve also proven that when the going gets tough….

Next: As streaky as they come

Oct 2, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Ryan Goins (17) slides into third base as he hits a 2-RBI triple against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Rangers are Streaky

Up until now I’ve used a lot of statistics and numbers, but the Blue Jays gifted them to us, it would be a shame not to mention them. Every player experiences a slump, a light bat, a ‘dead arm’ whatever you’d like it to call it. The Rangers over the past two months have been firing on all cylinders, but even then they lost games due to people failing to contribute. If the Rangers are on, they are on, and represent the team that deservedly won the American League West Pennant. When they are off, they look more like the team that we saw them back in April.

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The Rangers don’t always rebound after a loss, in fact they dropped multiple games in a row 35% of the time during the second half. Meanwhile the Blue Jays only suffered back to back losses three times during the second half, showing a remarkable resilience to bounce back. The Rangers have had their share of success, but when they are down, they are down. The Blue Jays have suffered no such profound dip in productivity. They’d brush off a loss and come charging into the next day.

Furthermore if key Rangers are slumping, it has a pronounced effect on the lineup. The Blue Jays rarely run into that issue. If Bautista or Donaldson is slumping, Smoak or Pillar is there to pick them up. The Blue Jays as a team have the magic allure that no matter the difference, they can always come back. 2015 has seen us go from lamenting Pillar and Goins at bats, to being dazzled by them. There is no week spot in the Jay’s starting 9, and if someone’s down, someone is right there to pick up the slack. The Rangers often have a hard time holding on to the early momentum they establish. So while the Rangers are indeed hot right now, their cool offs are normally pretty profound. This will be even more amplified in the Playoffs, especially when the Rangers are playing their first two games in front of the Ninth Man.

Next: The Ninth Man

Sep 27, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays players salute fans in the third inning of their final regular season home game against Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Ninth Man

The Blue Jays will be playing in front of a sellout with all of Canada watching them. While the Rangers will probably sell out of their home games too, attention will still be split. Texans have a lot going for them right now. The Rangers in the playoffs are great, but they will be playing at the same time key High School, College, and NFL Games are going. If Texas is anything, it’s a football state.

Toronto Blue Jays

Much like the miraculous effects of the Seattle Seahawks 12^th Man, the Blue Jays get the benefit from an entire country having their back. I’d also have to imagine more than one seat in Arlington will be wearing the Jays’ blue and white as well.

When I say Ninth Man I refer to the weak spot in the Blue Jay’s Lineup. There is none. Sure Ryan Goins won’t match Prince Fielder stat by stat in the series, but Goins isn’t a weak spot in the lineup. The Blue Jays have built a franchise in which everyone draws strength from one another. The players from the players, the players from the fans, the fans from the players. Everyone is tapping into this electric energy that is Playoff Baseball.

This is an entire nation’s first taste of October ball in more than two decades. Everyone in Canada stands behind the Blue Jays, hell thousands of people in the States do as well, just look at the Blue and White that has flooded into opposing stands since August. The Blue Jays are the team to beat. They have the moment, they have the energy, and they have the strength of an entire country to back them. So come on Rangers, let’s play ball.

Next: Should the Jays bat Tulowitzki Seventh?

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