For Blue Jays, Home Field Advantage in MLB Playoffs is Key!

Sep 27, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays players salute fans in the third inning of their final regular season home game against Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays are just days away from glory. For the first time in 22 years, playoff baseball will be played by Canada’s only team. Until the season ends, this club should be giving everything they have in each contest in order to secure home field advantage. In the playoffs, this can be a huge difference maker.

Much has been made about just how important it is for the Blue Jays. The fan base alone provides a huge boost for the home team. But, in looking at the other potential playoff teams, we get the sense that home field advantage just might be more important than we thought. So, let’s look at just how much of an advantage Rogers Centre has provided in 2015. Before we do, we should also note the “small sample size” argument is obvious. But, this is just a quick look at the 2015 results, so you can take it for what it is worth.

Toronto Blue Jays

Before we get to the visitors, we should probably check in with the home team to emphasize just how much of an advantage Rogers Centre is for them. All numbers are courtesy of BaseballReference.com. At home, they are hitting .278/.351/.485 with 450 of their 857 runs scored. Now, they’ve played more games at home up to this point, but the numbers are still valid since the difference is not obscene. They’ve shown more patience at home with 46 more walks and nearly 60 fewer strike outs. They’ve also hit 23 more home runs at home and nearly 50 more doubles.

Pitching at home has certainly been a benefit for the Blue Jays. Their home record is 53-28 with an ERA of 3.22. Away from home, they have a 38-37 mark. They’ve given up nearly 50 fewer runs at home, too. Their home WHIP is 1.102, while it sits at 1.335 on the road. They are walking more and striking out fewer batters on the road. So, Blue Jays fans are hoping that they can get as much home pitching as possible.

A combination of better hitting and pitching certainly hints at an advantage at home for the Blue Jays. But, it is only an advantage of the visiting teams are not enjoying the same level of success. So, we’ll look at the likely American League playoff teams and how they’ve performed at Rogers Centre this year.

Next: The Royals Not So Regal at Rogers Centre

Sep 26, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Texas Rangers designated hitter Prince Fielder (84) is congratulated by teammates for hitting a two run RBI single against the Houston Astros in the ninth inning at Minute Maid Park. Astros won 9 to 7. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The Texas Rangers have managed to turn their season around and look poised to play playoff baseball with a slim grip on the AL West. While this might come as a surprise to some, if the Rangers do make their way to Rogers Centre, they very well could make some noise there. Remember that it is the playoffs and the “anything can happen” tag line very much applies.

This is especially so when you look at the offensive numbers the Rangers have put up at Rogers Centre this year. Small sample aside, the Rogers Centre has been pretty comfortable for them. In 3 games, they hit .252/.289/.402 with 4 home runs and 8 RBI to go with 4 doubles. Now, the key to beating them, should the Blue Jays end up facing them, is the strike out. The Rangers tallied 32 whiffs at Rogers Centre this season.

Toronto Blue Jays

Against the Blue Jays, the Rangers have put up their lowest 0.90 SO/W number of any opponent. But, that number is just the beginning. When you look at the numbers in Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays just might be OK against these guys. The Rangers surrendered 20 hits and 15 runs, including 5 home runs. They also surrendered 12 walks over the series they spent in Toronto. A patient approach combined with the power the Blue Jays possess look to give them an advantage here.

Except that Rangers’ pitching has actually done a bit better on the road. They are 45-36 away from home with a 4.02 ERA. At home, they’re just 3 games above .500. It might have a lot to do with the bullpen picking up 28 saves on the road versus just 15 at home. Obviously, this number alone does not account for the difference. But, the numbers are strange. They hold a better SO/W number on the road: 2.23. The only really difference that jumps out is the number of home runs surrendered. On the road, they’ve given up 7 more, which would favor the Blue Jays.

But, how is it that the pitching can be better on the road with numbers that are very similar to those at home? They seem to be holding batters to a lower line on the road: .258/.322/.420. In Arlington, batters do much better. So, if we set the crowd aside, perhaps, the Rangers wouldn’t mind playing in Toronto all that much. As noted, the hitters may not mind it. In this case, home field advantage might not be such an advantage. Guess, the crowd will have to make up for it, huh?

Next: Houston Astros at Rogers Centre: Is There a Problem?

Sep 17, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) watches from the dugout during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Rangers won 8-2. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros saw their lead in the AL West slip away. It’s to the point now where they very well could miss the playoffs after being a bit of a Cinderella team in 2015. But, depending on how things shake out, they could stay in the 2nd Wild Card spot and battle for a chance to play in Toronto.

Betsided

On the road, 2015 has not been good to the Astros. They’re hitting .241/.304/.400 with nearly a 40 HR difference. In fact, all of their offensive numbers are lower on the road. This is going to be a problem since the only time they’ll have home field advantage is in the World Series, should they make it that far.

At Rogers Centre, the Astros have done slightly worse this year. They’ve slashed .227/.283/.340 with 10 runs on 22 hits, 2 doubles and 3 home runs. The Blue Jays certainly were able to capitalize on almost no patience from the Astros lineup as evidenced by their 6 walks and 24 whiffs. That’s an average of 8 Ks per game! In what is normally a hitter friendly park, the Astros suffered a .268 BABIP in Rogers Centre. Obviously, dome has not been kind to Astros hitters.

Astros’ pitching has been worse on the road in 2015 as they’ve managed just a 30-46 record for their efforts to go with a 3.95 ERA. They’ve given up 20 more runs, 30 more walks and have struck out nearly 150(!) fewer batters. This is not the recipe for success, obviously. Heading into Rogers Centre, the ‘Stros will likely look back on their time in Toronto with anxiety. The Blue Jays hit .310/.386/.530 against them in Toronto. Their 1.27 SO/W ratio is their second lowest mark of any visiting stadium. The Blue Jays tagged them for 5 HR and 8 stolen bases on their way to scoring 20 runs.

The Blue Jays will enjoy an advantage over the Astros should it come down to it. Perhaps, they’ll even be cheering for them. It looks to be a matchup the Blue Jays would enjoy.

Next: LA Angels at Rogers Centre...Just In Case

Sep 23, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Los Angeles Angels first baseman Albert Pujols (5) reaches out to starting pitcher Nick Tropeano (35) after he was taken out of the game in the bottom of the fifth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The LA Angels are still hanging around. They have a shot at grabbing a post season berth in the final days of the season. It’s actually kind of cool to see 3 teams from one division battling it out. Whether they Angels emerge victorious remains to be seen. But, just to be on the safe side, let’s take a look at whether the Blue Jays hold an advantage over them at Rogers Centre.

The Home/Away splits for the Angels are eerily similar. You have to see it for yourself to truly appreciate how close it is.

Toronto Blue Jays

Is there an advantage to forcing the Angels to hit on the road? It certainly doesn’t appear that way. Except, things get a little more lopsided when you look at their numbers at Rogers Centre. The Halos are slashing .226/.277/.438 in Toronto with 31 hits, including 7 home runs. That was what we should take away from the season series in Toronto between these two clubs. If the Blue Jays can limit the long ball, the other numbers suggest that things will be just fine. Cutting down on the big hits will be key as the 2015 damage was done with 8 doubles to go with those taters.

Pitching on the road has been a challenge for the Angels. Their 34-43 record and 4.61 ERA definitely favor the home team. They’ve given up nearly 70 more runs and struck our almost 120 fewer. BAtters are hitting nearly 30 points higher, too. Unfortunately for the Angels, things don’t get much better at Rogers Centre. They have surrendered 36 hits for 10 doubles and 4 HR. The Blue Jays managed to work them for 15 walks while striking out 23 times. That’s a 1.53 SO/W ratio, which just happens to be the second lowest mark the Angels put up in any stadium this year.

Again, things look good for the Blue Jays should the visiting team be the Angels. Of course, so much can happen in the Wild Card race in the dying days of the season, so the home team will have to watch on with anticipation.

Next: New York Yankees at Rogers Centre: Does Experience Equal Success?

Sep 23, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; New York Yankees pay tribute to Yogi Berra during a moments silence prior to a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees appear to have a hold on the first Wild Card spot. Somehow, some way, they’ve managed to hang around this season. Against all odds, they look set to make yet another post season appearance, their 51st in franchise history. And, of all of these possible opponents, the Yankees would be the most familiar with the confines of Rogers Centre. They would have the most experience and offer numbers into which we can put more stock.

Much like the Angels, the Yankees have similar numbers on the road as they do at home. They’ve managed a slash line of .248/.319/.414 thanks to hitting 98 home runs. Now, we all know the home run haven that Yankee Stadium is, but we have to give credit that they’re hitting them out everywhere. And, the Yankees show a slightly different approach on the road. They walk more and strike out less. Now, the difference is not exactly huge, but it is there.

Betsided

Have they been able to be successful at Rogers Centre? Now so much. The 2015 season has seen the Blue Jays as a thorn in the Yankees’ collective side. At Rogers Centre, Yankee hitters have slashed .230/.283/.374. In total, they’ve scored 25 runs over 9 games and have 70 hits. But, the damage has been minimal. Of those 70, 18 were doubles and just 8 were home runs. Not bad considering the power that the pinstripe lineup has.

Yankee pitching actually has a winning record (42-36) on the road, despite their 4.00 ERA. They’ve actually surrendered fewer runs on the road, too. But they’ve given up more hits by 40, which isn’t so bad. It does make for a higher road WHIP, though. Their pitching at Rogers Centre has also been fairly good, considering. They’ve managed to keep the heavy hitters in the ballpark, surrendering just 7 long balls. The Blue Jays have shown an ability to be patient with Yankee pitching as they’ve walked 30 times in those 9 games in Toronto. They’ve struck out 69 times. A 2.30 SO/W ratio is not exactly encouraging, if you’re a Yankee fan. It might be for Blue Jays’ fans, though.

Toronto Blue Jays

The numbers appear to be more even, here. This might be due to the sample size being larger. It is easy to get skewed results in just a few games, like the previous examples. When we have more to work with, balancing tends to happen. While the Yankee numbers against the Blue Jays aren’t overwhelmingly encouraging, we could take solace in the fact that the home team seems to have their number.

The Blue Jays seem to be able to call on a little something extra against the Yankees this year. It is paying off to the tune of a 13-6 record. Perhaps that “something extra” will come in the form of what real “home field advantage” provides. Firstly, the last at bat is the biggest advantage. We know this. But, this year, we have seen the other factor that will certainly favor the Blue Jays in the post season. That is the fans.

Never before have we seen this level of excitement in Rogers Centre (SkyDome). Remember when Dave Winfield had to ask for noise? Not this time ’round. The Blue Jays will benefit from a capacity crowd on hand to cheer them on and carry them. The volume and passion of Blue Jays’ fans automatically tips the scale in the home team’s favor. Whether it is the Royals, Rangers, Astros, Angels or Yankees, the visiting team will certainly be at a disadvantage. And, that is why the Blue Jays need to keep fighting right until the last out of the regular season.

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