With David Price, Blue Jays Made the Right Choice

Aug 26, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher

David Price

(14) comes off the field during the fourth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

David Price is good. D’uh. He’s the ace that the Toronto Blue Jays have been lacking for a few years. In an ace, you want a guy who can stop losing streaks. You want a guy who can provide a big performance in a big game. You want a guy who provides your team the confidence it needs to take on any challenges. You want a guy who has the opposite impact on your opponents. David Price does that and has been doing it since he came to Toronto. Trading for him as a rental was a gamble. There were other options available. But, it is one that has paid off.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays were linked to just about everyone at the July 31st Trade Deadline. We heard names like Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Yovani Gallardo and Carlos Carrasco. Since then, the Blue Jays have gone on a tear with Price in tow. Their 29-9 record as of Sunday morning is a testament to that. They went an incredible 21-6 in August and look to be in good shape to make the playoffs for the first time in 22 years. On the surface, it looks like they won the trade deadline; that they made the right choice in Price.

There is a lot that goes in to winning, to be sure. But, David Price has been a huge contributor. He was clearly the right choice. But, let’s look at how he stacks up against those other names on an individual basis to see just how good a get this was. We’re solely focusing on performances since the Trade Deadline, here. So, take for what it is.

Cueto was brought in by the Royals to bolster their chances as the best team in the American League. That title is on shaky ground. The White Sox elected to keep The Shark as they felt they still had a chance to compete. Or, they didn’t like the offers they were getting. Gallardo stayed in Texas and is watching his team try to hang on that second Wild Card spot and maybe creep up to take the AL West from the Astros. Carrasco has been stuck in Cleveland with a team that has a faint glimmer of hope to challenge for said 2nd Wild Card spot.

The standings depend upon an entire team to perform. So, we might not be able to say “Player X has provided Y to his team”. But, it is certainly worthwhile to dig into each of these names and compare their individual numbers. SO, let’s get to it.

Next: A Royal Mistake?

Aug 21, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) reacts after the fifth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Johnny Cueto

The start to Cueto’s Royals career can be called average. He hasn’t exactly gone in and lit things up. His overall mark of 2-5, 4.86 isn’t exactly what they traded for. In August, he threw a total of 35 innings that resulted in an ERA of 3.86. A total of 142 batters have hit a line of .275/.298/.489. After posting two straight months where batters weren’t even hitting .200 against him, the Royals were hoping for more after the Trade Deadline. August also saw him strike out the fewest per 9 of the season: 6.43. Now, it also saw his lowest total of walks per 9. Hitters pulled more balls against him for more line drives.

Betsided

Cueto’s foray into September has been even worse. His ERA in September sits at a healthy 9.00. He’s faced 45 happy batters who have collected a line of .381/.422/.463. Part of that might be due to a .444 BABIP. After all, his FIP is a tidy 2.81. He’s also given up the highest rate of hard hit balls of the season at 33.3%

Over at Call to the Pen, Josh Sippie outlined the disappointment that Cueto has been for Royals fans. He even went so far as to suggest that perhaps the Royals might adjust their rotation. As he points out, that is not likely. But, the fact that it even comes up shows the sentiment around this deal. Sippie also points out Cueto’s playoff track record. Cueto certainly isn’t the ace that David Price is. The Blue Jays did well to avoid this deal.

Next: The Shark's Lost His Bite

Jul 28, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; A multiple-exposure sequence of Chicago White Sox pitcher Jeff Samardzija (29) during the eighth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Jeff Samardzija

The Blue Jays were linked to The Shark quite a bit, but the White Sox decided that they were going to keep him. How did that work out? Well, right now, they’re 16.5 games out of the AL Central race and 6.5 out of the Wild Card. So, not so well. That is the risk you take when you have to decide on your future with two months of baseball left.

Toronto Blue Jays

In August, Samardzija threw 33 innings and amassed an ERA of 8.82. It was, by far, his worst month of the season. 163 batters left relatively happy with their showing. Can you blame them? The collective line of .324/.401/.604 sure is nice…for a hitter. August saw The Shark’s command allude him as his walk rate went up to 8% after sitting around 4% all season.

September has been marginally better for him. In 13 innings, his ERA is at 5.54. But, his WHIP is still uncomfortable at 1.46. And, his FIP is enough to scare small children: 6.14. His fly ball rate has jumped to 44.2% in September and nearly 50% of contact is being pulled. Not a good ccombination.

Samrdzija is set to be a free agent in 2016. And, he’ll have lots of suitors. But, considering his post Trade Deadline performance, he’s one rental the Blue Jays did well to avoid. And, he hasn’t done much to help his case as a free agent. If they do like him, his price tag may have taken a hit.

Next: Texas Trade Would Not Have Worked

Aug 4, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo (49) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Houston Astros at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Yovanni Gallardo

Immediately after the Trade Deadline, Gallardo might have looked like a guy the Blue Jays really could have used. Let’s set aside the fact that they landed David Price for a minute. Gallardo had himself an August. In 27.1 innings, his ERA sparkled at 1.98. He only gave up one HR in the whole month. After a bit of a shaky July (1.88 WHIP), he saw his WHIP come down to 1.39. Hitters collected a line of .269/.342/.388. This is n’t great, but it is his 2nd best month of the season.

Betsided

September hasn’t been so kind to the 29 year old impending free agent. In 14.2 innings, his ERA sits at 5.52. He’s given up 18 hits and 9 earned runs in September. Hitters are hitting .300 against him. He’s striking out 5.5/9 and walking over 3/9. His WHIP has also crept up to 1.57. Is this the ace the Blue Jays needed? Decidedly not.

Gallardo’s Rangers are fighting for the AL West lead at 1.5 games back of Houston. They hold the 2nd Wild Card spot with several teams barking at their heals. While Gallardo is good, his team would feel much more comfortable with a true ace. That’s why they brought in Cole Hamels. Sorry, Rangers fans. Had to mention him. In 7 starts, he’s 3-1, 4.07 and hasn’t exactly started his AL experience on fire. There’s been some adjustments along the way.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays managed to avoid both of these guys and their respective issues in favor of Price. Fans of the Rangers and Blue Jays alike would surely agree that Toronto got the better of it.

Next: Carrasco Hot, Hurt and Hit Hard

Aug 21, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59) pitches against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Carrasco

The Blue Jays nearly landed the righty from the Indians. His contract is so appealing that it would have been a good deal regardless of whether he can compete with David Price’s numbers. 4 years and $22M with 2 option years? Yes, please. Having this guy until 2020, potentially, would have been a nice get for GM, Alex Anthopoulos. The deal didn’t go through and AA was able to land David Price. We won’t know exactly how much one depended upon the other, but it certainly worked out for Toronto.

Toronto Blue Jays

What has Carrasco done since the Trade Deadline? He had an amazing August. In 30 innings, his ERA was 1.47! 112 batters left feeling rather disappointed since they managed a total line of .151/.198/.238. He was downright stingy. He struck out 33 and walked only 5 on the month. That’s a rate of 33.3% and 4.5% respectively. His 0.68 WHIP is microscopic. He’s a big reason why his team went 16-12 in August and crept closer to a playoff spot.

But, just as his great August helped his club, September has not been kind to them. Thus far, the Tribe is 5-4 and 14 back in the AL Central. Their only hope is to grab a Wild Card spot that is currently 4 games away from them. IT doesn’t sound like a lot, but there are only a few more weeks left in the season and 3 other teams ahead of them for that final spot. That is a lot of moving parts. The climb is going to be difficult.

And, Carrasco’s September hasn’t exactly helped them. He’s lasted just 2.2 innings and boasts an ugly ERA of 13.50. Really, it was just one start. And, he was returning from a short stint on the shelf. He gave up two home runs for 4 earned runs and walked 3. The good news is that he struck out 5. But, isn’t this the point? If we’re comparing post Trade Deadline performances, a DL stint and an ugly outing against the lowly White Sox, of all teams, doesn’t exactly scream effective ace. Especially with your team fighting for a playoff spot.

Granted, he had a wonderful August. It’s true. But, if we’re comparing everything he’s given his club since July 31st, the Blue Jays clearly got the better deal, here.

Next: The Price is Right. So Right.