With David Price, Blue Jays Made the Right Choice

Aug 21, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) reacts after the fifth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Johnny Cueto

The start to Cueto’s Royals career can be called average. He hasn’t exactly gone in and lit things up. His overall mark of 2-5, 4.86 isn’t exactly what they traded for. In August, he threw a total of 35 innings that resulted in an ERA of 3.86. A total of 142 batters have hit a line of .275/.298/.489. After posting two straight months where batters weren’t even hitting .200 against him, the Royals were hoping for more after the Trade Deadline. August also saw him strike out the fewest per 9 of the season: 6.43. Now, it also saw his lowest total of walks per 9. Hitters pulled more balls against him for more line drives.

Betsided

Cueto’s foray into September has been even worse. His ERA in September sits at a healthy 9.00. He’s faced 45 happy batters who have collected a line of .381/.422/.463. Part of that might be due to a .444 BABIP. After all, his FIP is a tidy 2.81. He’s also given up the highest rate of hard hit balls of the season at 33.3%

Over at Call to the Pen, Josh Sippie outlined the disappointment that Cueto has been for Royals fans. He even went so far as to suggest that perhaps the Royals might adjust their rotation. As he points out, that is not likely. But, the fact that it even comes up shows the sentiment around this deal. Sippie also points out Cueto’s playoff track record. Cueto certainly isn’t the ace that David Price is. The Blue Jays did well to avoid this deal.

Next: The Shark's Lost His Bite

Jul 28, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; A multiple-exposure sequence of Chicago White Sox pitcher Jeff Samardzija (29) during the eighth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Jeff Samardzija

The Blue Jays were linked to The Shark quite a bit, but the White Sox decided that they were going to keep him. How did that work out? Well, right now, they’re 16.5 games out of the AL Central race and 6.5 out of the Wild Card. So, not so well. That is the risk you take when you have to decide on your future with two months of baseball left.

Toronto Blue Jays

In August, Samardzija threw 33 innings and amassed an ERA of 8.82. It was, by far, his worst month of the season. 163 batters left relatively happy with their showing. Can you blame them? The collective line of .324/.401/.604 sure is nice…for a hitter. August saw The Shark’s command allude him as his walk rate went up to 8% after sitting around 4% all season.

September has been marginally better for him. In 13 innings, his ERA is at 5.54. But, his WHIP is still uncomfortable at 1.46. And, his FIP is enough to scare small children: 6.14. His fly ball rate has jumped to 44.2% in September and nearly 50% of contact is being pulled. Not a good ccombination.

Samrdzija is set to be a free agent in 2016. And, he’ll have lots of suitors. But, considering his post Trade Deadline performance, he’s one rental the Blue Jays did well to avoid. And, he hasn’t done much to help his case as a free agent. If they do like him, his price tag may have taken a hit.

Next: Texas Trade Would Not Have Worked

Aug 4, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo (49) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Houston Astros at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Yovanni Gallardo

Immediately after the Trade Deadline, Gallardo might have looked like a guy the Blue Jays really could have used. Let’s set aside the fact that they landed David Price for a minute. Gallardo had himself an August. In 27.1 innings, his ERA sparkled at 1.98. He only gave up one HR in the whole month. After a bit of a shaky July (1.88 WHIP), he saw his WHIP come down to 1.39. Hitters collected a line of .269/.342/.388. This is n’t great, but it is his 2nd best month of the season.

Betsided

September hasn’t been so kind to the 29 year old impending free agent. In 14.2 innings, his ERA sits at 5.52. He’s given up 18 hits and 9 earned runs in September. Hitters are hitting .300 against him. He’s striking out 5.5/9 and walking over 3/9. His WHIP has also crept up to 1.57. Is this the ace the Blue Jays needed? Decidedly not.

Gallardo’s Rangers are fighting for the AL West lead at 1.5 games back of Houston. They hold the 2nd Wild Card spot with several teams barking at their heals. While Gallardo is good, his team would feel much more comfortable with a true ace. That’s why they brought in Cole Hamels. Sorry, Rangers fans. Had to mention him. In 7 starts, he’s 3-1, 4.07 and hasn’t exactly started his AL experience on fire. There’s been some adjustments along the way.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays managed to avoid both of these guys and their respective issues in favor of Price. Fans of the Rangers and Blue Jays alike would surely agree that Toronto got the better of it.

Next: Carrasco Hot, Hurt and Hit Hard

Aug 21, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59) pitches against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Carrasco

The Blue Jays nearly landed the righty from the Indians. His contract is so appealing that it would have been a good deal regardless of whether he can compete with David Price’s numbers. 4 years and $22M with 2 option years? Yes, please. Having this guy until 2020, potentially, would have been a nice get for GM, Alex Anthopoulos. The deal didn’t go through and AA was able to land David Price. We won’t know exactly how much one depended upon the other, but it certainly worked out for Toronto.

Toronto Blue Jays

What has Carrasco done since the Trade Deadline? He had an amazing August. In 30 innings, his ERA was 1.47! 112 batters left feeling rather disappointed since they managed a total line of .151/.198/.238. He was downright stingy. He struck out 33 and walked only 5 on the month. That’s a rate of 33.3% and 4.5% respectively. His 0.68 WHIP is microscopic. He’s a big reason why his team went 16-12 in August and crept closer to a playoff spot.

But, just as his great August helped his club, September has not been kind to them. Thus far, the Tribe is 5-4 and 14 back in the AL Central. Their only hope is to grab a Wild Card spot that is currently 4 games away from them. IT doesn’t sound like a lot, but there are only a few more weeks left in the season and 3 other teams ahead of them for that final spot. That is a lot of moving parts. The climb is going to be difficult.

And, Carrasco’s September hasn’t exactly helped them. He’s lasted just 2.2 innings and boasts an ugly ERA of 13.50. Really, it was just one start. And, he was returning from a short stint on the shelf. He gave up two home runs for 4 earned runs and walked 3. The good news is that he struck out 5. But, isn’t this the point? If we’re comparing post Trade Deadline performances, a DL stint and an ugly outing against the lowly White Sox, of all teams, doesn’t exactly scream effective ace. Especially with your team fighting for a playoff spot.

Granted, he had a wonderful August. It’s true. But, if we’re comparing everything he’s given his club since July 31st, the Blue Jays clearly got the better deal, here.

Next: The Price is Right. So Right.

Aug 26, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher David Price (14) comes off the field during the fourth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

David Price

The Detroit Tigers held out for as long as they could before moving David Price. And, Alex Anthopoulos was good to wait. Whether he had to wait because the other deals didn’t work out, or he was holding out for Price all along, we’ll never know. Regardless, patience pays off. And, the Blue Jays landed the better of all of these options.

In August, Price was 4-1 in 5 starts with an ERA of 2.28. He struck out 50 in his 43 innings to just 8 walks. 171 batters managed to scrape together a line of .209/.246/.319. They could only manage a 19.5% hard hit ball rate. Price pitched in some big games in August to bring the Blue Jays closer and closer to the division lead. On July 28th, the team was 8 games out of first place New York. As stated previously, a single starter cannot be given all of the credit for a team’s success, but Price was a huge reason they went 21-6 on the month and ended up 1.5 games ahead of the Yankees on Sept 1.

In September, Price has been just as good. He’s 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA. In his 12 innings, he’s piled up 15 strike outs. Batters still are not having much luck against him with a .205 average. What’s more, he’s stepped up his K rate to 11.25 per 9 innings. His WHIP is a tidy 1.17 and his FIP sits at 1.89.

When all is said and done, the Blue Jays got the better starter at the end of July. And, this might not come as a surprise to Blue Jays fans. But, a look at the numbers provides you with some proof of that sentiment. Top performance and health from Price have given the Blue Jays the ace they needed. It not only provides them with the ace to start a series, stop a losing streak, or to give an advantage in a playoff game. The acquisition of Price has given the Toronto Blue Jays a confidence boost. It has given them the belief that they are nearly invincible. None of the other options listed here would provide such a feeling.

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