Series Preview: Blue Jays Head to New York with Season on the Line

Sep 8, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson (right) celebrates after scoring a run against the Boston Red Sox with center fielder Kevin Pillar (11) during the tenth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

It is a bit worrisome to see how the Blue Jays and Drew Hutchison fared in the rubber match in Boston. It is the type of game all teams go through, but that was truly one to forget. I hope the guys have a very short memory because the Yankees are stumbling a bit themselves. If the Jays keep their focus, the Yanks could be ripe for the picking. It’s time to take the division!

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All of the stats and analysis are great fuel, but to the guys in Blue Jays’ blue, it should mean nothing. If they can look each other in the eye and say they played to the greatest peaks of their ability, then there is nothing to do but win this pivotal series. Winning is the only stat that matters.

Don’t expect many games like the one yesterday, but it just gives an inkling of wonder as to whether there is one more little offensive downturn before October. If so, do the Blue Jays have the pitching to get through such a dry spell? Steve Delabar did nothing to help his cause and Jeff Francis gave up some hard hit balls, while Aaron Loup is just Aaron Loup. It’s almost as if the Jays used their game to allow some of the September callups to get some action in good ol’ historic Fenway Park. Thankfully, that leaves their strongest bullpen options well rested.

Next: A look across the diamond at the New York Yankees

Sep 5, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher David Price (14) pitches against Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

Game 1: David Price (14-5, 2.43 ERA) vs Luis Severino (3-2, 2.04 ERA)

The best way to look past a terrible game is to have your stopper ace hold down the fort. Price hasn’t been the best against the Yankees this year, though. His opposing slash line against them in 2015 is .324/.383/.432.  However, he has the guts and the drive to give his best each time out. With much more riding on this game Price should be primed and ready to take control. The Blue Jays lost their first game under Price in his last start so the law of averages says this should be a dominant outing. Overall, Price has gone 5-1 with a 2.15 ERA since the trade.

Severino has been the key component to the Yankee rotation since his call up. Basically, he is the Marcus Stroman of the Yankees. He has disappointed no one and has been every bit as good as the Yankees hoped. They could have traded him for some big name pitcher at the deadline but instead he is pitching like the guys he would have been traded for. Last time out against the Blue Jays he fanned 9 batters over 6 innings. Those are numbers the Blue Jays cannot come close to hitting again this time out.

Next: Game 2 Preview: Estrada tackles Friday night

Sep 6, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marco Estrada (25) throws a pitch during the first inning in a game against the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Game 2: Marco Estrada (12-8, 3.18 ERA) vs Ivan Nova (6-7, 4.50 ERA)

Estrada has become that guy. That guy that comes out of seemingly nowhere to anchor down a rotation that had been in a state of flux. What can you say about Estrada? He is locked in and has full command of his pitches. He hasn’t given any indication that his arm is tired or that he can’t handle the added pressure.

Aside from some crooked numbers against Carlos Beltran (3 HR against) Estrada has dealt with the Yankee hitters about as good as you could have expected. He will surpass his previous season high in innings (150.2) set last year in Milwaukee during this game….hopefully.

Nova has the capabilities to take down the vaunted Jays line up. He has a 5.49 ERA in his last 7 starts and one wonders if fatigue on his arm setting in.  He hasn’t pitched extremely well at Yankee Stadium either where his ERA is almost two runs worse than it is when he is pitching elsewhere. He is still giving up a decent AO/PO of 1.41 so he has the stuff to temper the power bats of the Blue Jays. If he can stay out of the big inning he could keep the Yankees close in this game.

Next: Game 3 Preview: HE'S BACK!

Mar 9, 2015; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marcus Stroman (6) pitches during the first inning of a spring training baseball game against the Houston Astros at Florida Auto Exchange Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Game 3: Marcus Stroman (0-0. 0.00 ERA) vs Michael Pineda (10-8, 4.15 ERA)

The saviour of the season in some people’s eyes takes the mound Saturday in the always-energetic Stroman. He has come back in less than 6 months from an injury that should have knocked him out for the year. If he is anywhere close to 100% and being the pitcher he was last season it will be truly remarkable. Long-term he looks like a closer to me (a la Tom Gordon), but for now, he is the guy who could give the rotation the boost it needs to get through the last few weeks of the season.

Pineda keeps chugging along after a year off from Tommy John. In his last 7 he is doing alright with a WHIP of 1.14 giving up a hit an inning and in 40+ innings has given up 37 strikeouts and 6 walks. After the all-star break he has struggled overall with a 6.11 ERA . He has had more time on the DL and has been ok since getting off of it. He has the killer breaking ball but he isn’t commanding it too well. He gives up his share of home runs which bodes well against the killer Blue Jays offense.

Next: Game 4 Preview: Dickey closes out the series

Sep 8, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher R.A. Dickey (43) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Game 4: R.A. Dickey (10-10, 4.01 ERA) vs Masahiro Tanaka (11-6, 3,57 ERA)

Dickey has earned the respect he deserved to have when he first got here. He has truly commanded the attention of the other side by pitching the way he did when he won the Cy Young in 2012. The Jays have won his past ten starts and not because of the vaunted offense. It is because Dickey has been the pitcher the Blue Jays expected him to be when they traded future ace Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud. Against the Yankees he has given up only 3 earned runs in three starts.  He is locked in for September with 2 wins, an ERA of  1.20 and a WHIP of a ridiculous 0.60. Those are numbers an ace would have.

Tanaka hasn’t been lights out for the Yankees but he is the best of what is an uneven Yankees rotation. He is as good before the all-star break as after and just keeps giving solid innings. His WHIP is a killer 1.01 ERA and he struck out 10 Orioles in his last start. He has proven to be a gamer and a bulldog who is able to eat up innings. His BAA against is a decent .222  and his K:BB is almost 5:1. He has pitched OK against the Blue Jays and has given up his fair share of home runs overall (22) so it is tough to see which way he is going to go.

Feb 23, 2015; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marcus Stroman (6) warms up during morning work outs at Bobby Mattick Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Player to Watch

Marcus Stroman. I hate putting so much pressure on Stroman but his start could have a domino effect on the rest of the starting rotation. A rotation that seems to be struggling in some facets with three weeks left to go.

If Stroman gives Toronto a boost, perhaps he can fill in for the rest of the rotation when they need some rest. If he is the Stroman of old perhaps he shuffles Hutchison to the bullpen for the remainder of the season. I get loyalty to who got you there and Hutch has 13 wins, but he sure didn’t earn a lot of them. Stroman is definitely the apparent X-Factor of the Blue Jays season.

Prediction

If things keep along the same course you can expect this to be a split. It would be nice to get out of New York with a sweep or winning 3 of 4 but that doesn’t seem all that realistic given how closely matched these teams are. If the Blue Jays pound Yankee starters there is a pretty good bullpen waiting for them.

They will miss C.C. Sabathia this time around and this year that is a shame. Severino is proving to be what the Blue Jays hope Stroman will be. The team should be ready for an offensive outburst they didn’t se in Boston but it isn’t going to be easy to come by. Getting out with a split and a 1.5 game lead is nothing to sneeze at.

Next: Is Dickey Finally the Man?

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