Troy Tulowitzki Joins Star Filled Toronto Blue Jays Lineup

Jun 24, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (2) throws back to first base in the eighth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field. The Diamondbacks defeated the Rockies 8-7. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

FIELDING %

Tulo has a .985 career fielding %, Reyes has a .972 career fielding %, However, Reyes is down to .953 (he’s actually been worse than this, saved many times by his 1B and 2B), and Tulo is still at .977 this year.
Tulo gets the edge defensively as a result, and with the Jays going to natural grass in the near future, he could feasibly remain a SS for a while yet.

WAR

Reyes last 3 years of War: 2.2, 3.4, 1.2
Tulo last 3 years of War: 5.3, 5.3, 1.4

It’s important to note that Fangraphs has Tulo’s Batting and Base Running value going from 22.1 in 2013, to 30 in 2014 and a mere 1.3 so far in 2015. Simultaneously, his fielding value has dropped from 11.9 in 2013, to 6.8 in 2014 and -0.6 in 2015. However, I attribute much of this to the state of the Colorado Rockies franchise and his state of mind while playing for them. This was the first year Tulo became vocal about his frustration of playing in Colorado and it took its toll on his performance numbers. I expect him to return to the 5 War levels or high 4s with the Jays, something Jose Reyes was never able to accomplish. 

Birds Watcher

As a result, Tulo gets a big edge here. His War is also more sustainable since he has the better bat overall and can move to DH if need be, something Reyes wouldn’t be able to do and protects the investment the Jays have made in taking on Tulo’s salary long-term.

POWER vs SPEED

Reyes has stolen 39, 40, 15, and 30 bases his last 4 years, and 16 so far in 2015.
Tulo has hit 30, 8, 25, and 21 home runs his last 4 years, and 12 so far in 2015.

It’s impossible to compare apples to oranges, or power and speed. Each is a different ingredient that a lineup needs to balance. In the end, getting runs across the plate is the goal of every team, and I think that when they’re in the lineup, both players provide their teams with Elite energy in their roles. So in terms or power vs speed, which is really what Tulo vs Reyes is about in the lineup. There’s still a chance that Tulo can carry his skills forward into the future while Reyes’ speed will diminish and make it tough to substantiate keeping him at the lead off spot. With that in mind, I give Tulo an edge here, but a very slight one and one that is dependent on his being able to remain healthy as he approaches age 35.

Next: A Tale of Hitting Stats

Jul 14, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; National League shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (2) of the Colorado Rockies at bat against the American League during the sixth inning of the 2015 MLB All Star Game at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

BATTING AVG, OBP, and PITCHES TAKEN

Last 3 years:

Tulo: .312, .340, .305 BA / .391, .432, .353 OBP / 1967, 1430, 1364
Reyes: .296, .287, .285 BA / .353, .328, .322 OBP / 1548, 2308, 1077

This is where Tulo creates the most separation from Reyes. His ability to hit, to get on base, to make pitchers work, and to move runners along and drive in runs is well above anything Reyes can provide at the top of the lineup. Not only are the abilities of Reyes deteriorating defensively, but his line is starting to fall as well, which is why I think the Jays ultimately pulled the trigger on this deal.

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Just as the Yankees and Red Sox like to work pitchers hard to get pitches they like and to wear them down, adding Tulo to a lineup that has recent additions like Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin ensures their lineup may become one of the toughest to navigate.

What I like about adding Tulo to the Jays lineup is that he is great whether he faces LHP or RHP and provides the Jays with the best 2-3-4-5 in the majors. If you thought Josh Donaldson saw too many fastballs before, he could see even more now that Tulo will likely hit behind him. While Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion provided power this year, both lacked in average and left their fair share of runners on base as a result. I believe all four will now be better off and could see their numbers go up significantly, a scary proposition for opposing pitchers.

Tulo’s value in the Jays lineup also opens up the possibility of moving one of the four to another team for the pitching the Jays sorely need to make a push in 2015, something I’ll elaborate on next along with my overall impression of the trade.

OVERALL TULO vs REYES

Ok, so I’m a much bigger fan of Tulo than Reyes. I think that’s obvious and it’s not my issue with this deal. The Jays just got a true leader, a top 20-30 MLB player, and traded away a declining older defensively challenged SS. BUT, we also have to remember that the positive energy Jose Reyes brought to the team was also excellent, was an embraced part of the team, and that he filled the lead off role for them, something the Jays lack now that they trade Reyes.

Still, if this were where the deal ends, I would give the Jays and Alex Anthopoulos an A+.

However, in this deal, to compensate for the edge the Jays got in Tulo over Reyes, they agreed to deal 2 extremely promising players along with Reyes, with severely alters the makeup of this trade.

Next: What Did it All Cost?

Apr 13, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Roberto Osuna (54) and Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Miguel Castro (51) walk to the bull pen before the home opener against the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre. The Tampa Bay Rays won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

PROSPECTS

I know prospects are prospects and nothing is guaranteed, but Jeff Hoffman was a potential top 3 in the draft the year he was selected in the draft and he has recovered fully from injuries that had him sidelined since the draft. This being the first year he pitches since undergoing surgery, he is already up to AA, doing better than expected when working through getting his arm strength back. 

Toronto Blue Jays

Overall, he has 67 IP, 68 HA, 17 BB, 46 Ks, and a 1.26 Whip this year between HiA and AA.

With his build, pedigree, and arsenal, he will be ready for MLB action sometime in 2016 and will likely become a strong #3 at a minimum, with the possibility of becomes a #2.

Miguel Castro made it to MLB as a reliever at 20 years old. He may have faltered and been sent down for some work on his stuff, but let’s remember that even Roy Halladay had to be sent back down to HiA before he found his stuff and worked his way back to MLB. Castro is back up to AAA and has only allowed 1 ER over his last 7 games. At 6’5″ 190 lbs, he’s going to be durable and a workhorse in the pen
with the potential to become a setup – more than likely a closer – at some point in the next 5 years.

The prize in this equation is definitely Hoffman, but Castro can’t be understated as well. Between him Aaron Sanchez, and Roberto Osuna, the Jays could have had the youngest and most affordable back end in all of MLB. They all get along, all grew up together in the system, and Osuna and Castro are best friends off the field. Now the Jays not only trade Castro away, irking Osuna, but got a 42 year old in return who may not be effective at all pitching in the AL. The last time he threw in the AL was for the Angels in 2012 and he wound up with a 1.381 whip and 3.64 ERA. In one word, ugly.

There are 2 reasons I dislike this deal for the Jays. The first is that they not only didn’t address their areas of need (pen and rotation), but they dealt away pieces that could have helped them there in August or September (Hoffman and Castro) in return for a 42 yr old ineffective vet. Can anyone explain that one to me?

The second reason is that while their lineup got better overall with Tulo in it, the Jays now have little to no speed, no lead off guy, and are way too RHB heavy. The Jays are going to miss their switch hitting lead off guy. So while I love the death row of Donaldson, Tulo, Bautista, Edwin, it is not going to be as effective as it could be with a true lead off hitter.

Next: The Verdict

Jul 3, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (2) looks on prior to the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

FINAL THOUGHTS

I love the fact that the Jays now have a face of the franchise beyond Jose and Edwin, both of which may be gone within 2 years. I also think that this deal opens up the possibility of the Jays dealing either Jose or Edwin for pitching. More than likely Edwin, since he has Justin Smoak, Danny Valencia, and Chris Colabello sitting on the sidelines waiting to take over 1B. The Jays lineup can now sustain the loss of Encarnacion. I expect them to attempt to move him to a team like SD in return for pitching.

However, the Jays continue to deal Elite pitching to other teams. Let’s see so far they’ve dealt Noah Syndergaard, Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Nicolino, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, Henderson Alvarez, and even sold Jesse Chavez to the A’s in 2012. 

Toronto Blue Jays

And now they need pitching more than ever. Doesn’t anyone ever notice how the Cards and Giants have won their World Series rings anymore? Pitching and excellent D. That’s what wins. With that in mind, I get the D upgrade with Tulo, but the P downgrade hurts……it hurts a lot. Not only now, but in 2016, 2017, 2018…….ect…..

It’s hard to argue that getting one of the best leaders and players in MLB is a bad thing. I can’t go that far. But if it’s the only thing the Jays do this trade deadline, it will be extremely disappointing since it doesn’t come close to address their real needs. They’ll simply continue to blow leads, to allow way too many runs, and to have the worst 5 SP in all of the AL.

I certainly hope they’re ready to watch Hoffman and Castro improve the Rockies pitching for years to come. That said, there’s no reason to expect the Jays to be done at this point, and I fully expect them to continue to add pieces now that they’ve show us they mean business in 2015 and are not going to let dealing high-end prospects stand in their way.

If there’s one thing Jays fans that will criticize this deal can’t say about Alex Anthopoulos and the Jays at this point is that they’ve done nothing, which is more than they could say in 2014 when Jose Bautista watched the season drift by without any moves made.

For this reason and the franchise face value that Troy Tulowitzki provides the Jays for years to come, I give this deal an A minus. Had they not dealt so much high-end pitching, it may have warranted an A plus.

Next: What's Left for Blue Jays to do?

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