Blue Jays & MLB Trade Deadline: 5 Things that NEED to Happen

Major League Baseball’s July 31st Non-Waiver Trade Deadline is fast approaching. If we were so inclined, we could count it down in hours now. For fans of the Toronto Blue Jays, there is bound to be a few days of nervous energy as they look for their team to end the longest active playoff drought in baseball. Heading into play on Tuesday, they sit 6.5 games out of first place in the American League East and 3 out of the Wild Card spot. And, even though they were closer to glory last season at this time, it feels as though there is more pressure on management to pull off a big deal.

It would seem that the pressure is not intimidating as the Blue Jays pulled off a mega trade in the wee hours of Monday into Tuesday by trading Jose Reyes, Jeff Hoffman, Jesus Tinoco and Miguel Castro for Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins. While there very well may be more info to come about this deal, it is certainly does indicate the direction this club is heading. They look to be going for it. But, have they even done anything to address their actual needs?

For weeks (Or, is it months?) we’ve been hearing links to just about every possible pitching target out there. Whether the Philadelphia Phillies are looking for Cole Hamels to waive his “no trade” clause, or the Chicago White Sox are looking to get something for Jeff Samardzija, the Blue Jays seem to have been linked. They have also been linked to David Price. At one point, the rumor that they were “in” talks for Johnny Cueto refused to die. We even wondered if Scott Kazmir would be a fit. It seems there has been no shortage of Blue Jays rumors to keep us hungry for a move.

Until a deal actually happens, or doesn’t happen as the case may be, we won’t know to what degree the Blue Jays are actually engaged in trade talks. But a common thought is that the Blue Jays are indeed looking for pitching help in an attempt to compete in 2015. And, with a large proportion of their games in September against division rivals, it would make sense that they operate this way. There are a total of 23 games in September against AL East opponents, including 7 against the division leading New York Yankees.

So, if this Blue Jays team is going to make some noise this year, there are 5 things they need to do. In baseball, there is no miracle cure for anything. There is no magical elixir. But, for the Toronto Blue Jays, there are some very obvious things that need to happen. Without these things, Blue Jays fans could be looking at another year without playoff baseball.

Next: Do the Blue Jays Know What They're Doing?

Jul 13, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos during batting practice before their game against the Cleveland Indians at the Rogers Centre. The Indians beat the Blue Jays 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Make a Decision

The very first thing that needs to happen for the Toronto Blue Jays in the coming days is that they need to make a final decision about whether they are going to commit to winning this season. For years, we’ve been hearing that GM, Alex Anthopoulos is dedicated to building a “sustainable winner”. To that end, he’s poured a great deal of effort into drafting and signing international free agents. He’s been building the farm system for years now with that goal in mind.

And, it is a noble, logical goal. But, there is an issue with that: it never ends; it’s not an end point. A team should never stop working this way. It is not like one day, they put their feet up on their desk and exhale deeply in satisfaction saying, “There. I’ve done it!”. No, this type of system building continues year after year, regardless of winning or losing. So, is that a realistic goal?

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Let’s pretend that it is. OK. Anthopoulos has done a good job of building up the Blue Jays’ system. And, part of that “building a winner” approach means signing big contracts and bringing in impact players when the time is right. This past winter, that was done. Russell Martin was signed. Josh Donaldson was brought in. And, now here we are at a pivotal point in the season. Will the Blue Jays continue the bold moves?

Well, the trade with Rockies is a bold move. And, it is one that indicates that the Blue Jays will be trying to improve; trying to compete. And, that is a good sign. But, if they really want to compete and make a push, a deal for pitching is what they need to do. Otherwise, they just spent a lot of capital to move Reyes. That’s about it. This team still has needs.

Thus far, in his tenure, it would seem that Anthopoulos is targeting team friendly contracts first. He nearly had a deal in place to acquire Carlos Carrasco from the Indians, but it fell through at the last minute. And, why not? The 4yr/$22M price tag is a steal. It is exactly the kind of team friendly contract Anthopoulos loves. It is the type of deal that sets the team up for an improvement this year and in the next few as well. It makes sense.

Except this kind of deal is rare on the market. What is available are generally short term fixes meant to give a shot in the arm to a hopeful team. Are the Blue Jays that team? They need to decide. And, quick. The trade market for starting pitching (or any other help for that matter) is going to fade quickly. If they take too long, they’ll be stuck with what’s left instead of what’s best. And, that may not solve their needs.

Next: The First Real Move the Blue Jays Need to Make

Get a Starter!

This seems obvious. Currently, the Blue Jays sit 23rd in all of baseball with a 4.07 ERA. Part of that has to do with the bullpen, which we’ll get to a bit later, but it is not pretty. According to BaseballReference.com, the starters are responsible for an ERA of 4.38 and a WHIP of 1.354. It’s bad. Those of us who have been watching starts like most of Drew Hutchison‘s road outings or Matt Boyd‘s 2nd start have been screaming for pitching help. 

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Perhaps, Alex Anthopoulos is very much all in and he is not done shopping in the coming days. Today’s announced trade certainly indicates an “all in” approach, but still doesn’t actually bring in a pitcher that they need.

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. The Blue Jays entered Spring Training with optimism around a rotation that featured, Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison, R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle and Daniel Norris. But, what is it they say about the best laid plans? It fell apart as quickly as an ACL can tear. Stroman’s absence called into question the depth this team had. Then, Daniel Norris struggled after dealing with ‘dead arm’. Aaron Sanchez was added to the rotation after some wavering back and forth with the bullpen (again, more on that in a bit). In fact, none of the exciting youth has been reliable this season.

Instead, the Blue Jays have been relying on Buehrle’s consistency and Dickey’s unreliable knuckleball. Something needs to be injected into this rotation if this team is going to compete this year. This club cannot compete while relying on the above veterans and a collection of makeshift starters like Felix Doubront. No, they need an impactful improvement. Fast.

What happens if they actually do make a run at a Wild Card spot? There is not a Blue Jays fan around who would be comfortable starting a one game playoff with any members of the current rotation. This club needs a better starter.

Next: Is a Starter Enough to Help Blue Jays?

Aug 2, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher

R.A. Dickey

(43) sits in the dugout after being pulled from the game during the eighth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. The Astros defeated the Blue Jays 8-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Get Another Starter!

This sounds greedy and unrealistic, but it isn’t. The Blue Jays are not in a position where they can be comfortable with this rotation moving forward. They’ve removed Aaron Sanchez from the rotation, so they’re down another option. Drew Hutchison has been a mystery wrapped in an enigma. It is not an exaggeration to say that Mark Buehrle is the only pitcher they have that is going to give anything resembling a predictable start. There are just too many question marks.

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So, the Blue Jays should be looking at injecting another starter into this rotation. And, at this point, just about any reasonable option would be an improvement. There are ways to consider this. They could look down to AAA Buffalo and ask themselves if Daniel Norris is ready to return. Though, given his continuing struggles with command he is not a safe bet. He started Monday night and went just 5 innings, walking 4 and giving up 5 hits in 98 pitches. Matt Boyd is certainly another option. Though the mere mention of his name brings back memories of his last start where he couldn’t even get an out before he gave up 7 earned runs against the Texas Rangers.

So, the Blue Jays need to look outside the organization. If there is one thing that has been apparent this Trade Deadline season is that there is quite a bit of available pitching. And, if the Blue Jays actually decide that they are going to upgrade their pitching, there will be options available.

Perhaps a team like the San Diego Padres can be reached out to for one of the starters they’ve been rumored to have made available. Could the Blue Jays pull off a big deal and reel in two fish? They certainly need to. Yes, it will be costly, but if they’ve indeed decided that they are going to compete this year, they need to accept that they are going to have to pay. And, that is only to do a couple of the things they need to do. There’s more!

Next: The Blue Jays Need to Address their Bullpen

Jun 5, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher

Aaron Sanchez

(41) pitches in first inning against Houston Astros at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

Get a Real Closer!

If there is a source of frustration on par with, or even greater than, that of the rotation, it is the Blue Jays’ bullpen. Their ERA sits at 3.47, which isn’t terrible. It isn’t great, but it may not scream at you. What does is the 12-19 record the bullpen has compiled. They have just 16 saves all season. In save situations, BaseballReference.com tells us that the bullpen has an ERA of 6.09! Opponents are hitting .260/.321/.419 in games with a score within 3 runs, .263/.325/.424 within 2 runs, .261/.325/.418 within one run and .268/.328/.421 in tie games. In fact, if you look at high leverage situations, the Blue Jays are allowing opponents a .278/.343/.438 line.

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This is not a recipe for success. And, what has the answer been? The Blue Jays have had success with Roberto Osuna in the closer’s role after struggling to find an answer. But, he’s 20 and was supposed to be a starter. Obviously, he won’t be this season. He certainly is not the best option for a bullpen. He’s just the best option they have right now.

Then they decided to move Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen upon his return from the DL. That might help the club avoid future injuries to their prized flame thrower. It also might provide them with a short term improvement out of the ‘pen. But, ultimately, it does not fix anything. Sanchez is a starter. He’s not a Band Aid, which is what the team is using him as right now.

What about LaTroy Hawkins? Is that the answer? A 42 year old reliever with a total of 126 saves since 1995. That’s it. There are others who have shown themselves to be a true closer in a much shorter amount of time. Even though this seems to be a deal to address bullpen concerns, it still doesn’t really solve them once and for all.

The answer is to bring in a proven closer that will have an impact and actually provide some stability and insurance in those tight moments when a game is on the line. Where would this team be if the bullpen’s record were even reversed? They’d have 7 more wins than they do right now. That would put them 2 games ahead of the Yankees and in first place!

With Craig Kimbrel and Jonathan Papelbon being out there, the Blue Jays do have options. That is not even mentioning any other club who finds themselves looking at the wrong end of the standings. Whomever the Blue Jays call in the next few days, they need to discuss a closer. Addressing all of their pitching needs might be very costly. But, winning doesn’t come cheap. The last thing they need to do by July 31st does, though.

Next: A Cheap Move the Blue Jays Need to Make