Blue Jays Starters vs Trade Targets: Is There Even a Need?

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May 31, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Drew Hutchison (36) pitches in the sixth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The Minnesota Twins beat the Toronto Blue Jays 6-5. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Hutchison vs The Big Fish

Drew Hutchison has been putting up a strange season. He’s the owner of an 8-1 record, but an ERA of 4.99. Home at the Rogers Centre, Hutchison has a 2.12 ERA (batters are hitting .242) while on the road, it jumps to 8.92 (batters are hitting .321). One night, he’s on fire. The next, he struggles to put forth a quality start. On the surface, one would say that while there is so much potential in Drew Hutchison, the Blue Jays should be looking for a more consistent starter to lead this club.

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Despite his Jekyll and Hyde season, Hutchison has managed to put up 1.4 WAR, which is nearly identical to Kazmir, but below the others. His night and day act this season leaves no guarantee as to what the club us going to get from night to night. In fact adding -0.37 probability of winning is not encouraging. Imagine heading into a tie breaker game looking at that kind of probability of winning.

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His fastball has been worth 4.2 runs above average but his slider has been costing him twice as many at -8.8. It is just another aspect of the up and down season Hutchison has been providing.

Drew Hutchison has tremendous value to the Toronto Blue Jays. He has all the makings of a an effective ace. Whether he lives up to that may be a different story. He certainly has the potential to go out there and put forth a gutsy performance that could send the Blue Jays  to the playoffs, or to secure them a playoff win.

But, at this time of year, the Blue Jays are looking to make a move that will increase their chances of winning in these situations. IF they’re going to pull off a move and fork over the package that would be required to do so, it will be for a pitcher that is going to provide a higher value and probability of winning. That is not to say that WPA is the be all, end all. Rather it is to say that the Blue Jays will be looking for a player who provides them with that greater chance of winning. Drew Hutchison is good. No question. But, he doesn’t provide enough that the Blue Jays can feel comfortable.

Next: Sanchez vs The Big Fish