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Blue Jays can learn prospect lessons from Bautista, Smoak

By Keegan Matheson |
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May 31, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Toronto Blue Jays designated hitter Jose Bautista (19) waits in the on deck circle in the second inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The Minnesota Twins beat the Toronto Blue Jays 6-5. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

With the calendar flipping to July, the Toronto Blue Jays have begun to take an inventory of their prospect portfolio. Rival GMs have, too. If the Blue Jays are going to make a push for the big arm that fans crave, it’s going to cost the organization several of their top young players.

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Baseball has become the great game of measurements, every possible facet being measured and analyzed, but the world of scouting and prospects remains volatile. We cannot place a number on a prospect like Dalton Pompey, or run their Minor League performance through an algorithm that tells us there is a 71.4% chance that he will produce an average 2.0 WAR at the next level.

This uncertainty causes a love affair with prospects, always fearing that they will hit their sky-high ceilings and haunt the team for the next decade. These hesitations come up whenever you mention the name “Jeff Hoffman” to a Blue Jays fan in trade talks. This July, the Blue Jays may need to accept that they are receiving a known commodity in exchange for assets whose potential talents are unpredictable and somewhat out of their control.

Alex Anthopoulos doesn’t need to look far to see both ends of this spectrum. In the Blue Jays lineup alone, Jose Bautista and Justin Smoak represent what happens, and often what fails to happen, in the world of prospects.

Next: Justin Smoak's long and humbling road

Jun 19, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak (14) hits an RBI single in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

1B Justin Smoak  –  Round 1 (11th), 2008

Justin Smoak was a high pick of the Texas Rangers in 2008 and entered the league as one of the top left-handed power prospects in the game. By the end of the 2009 season, Smoak had risen to the number 13 prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America, one spot ahead of Madison Bumgarner.

At that time, Baseball America recognized Smoak as the organization’s best hitter for average, best power hitter and owner of the best strike zone discipline, along with naming him the top defensive first baseman in the Pacific Coast League.

In July of 2010, Smoak was the centrepiece of a deal between the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners for Cliff Lee, who at the time was 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.945 WHIP. From that point on, Smoak has regressed from a marquee prospect into the bargain bin depth player now employed by the Blue Jays.

For Toronto, and all MLB clubs, this represents the dice-roll that teams take in any deal involving a top-10 prospect. While a Jeff Hoffman or Daniel Norris could easily hoist a future Cy Young award, the harsh reality of professional baseball is that they could just as easily flame out of the league. This is not a condemnation of their games, but simply the nature of their profession.

Next: Jose Bautista and the road less travelled

Jun 19, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) scores in the first inning behind Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters (32) as home plate umpire CB Bucknor looks on at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

RF Jose Bautista  –  Round 20 (599th), 2000

You read that right, one of the greatest Blue Jays of this generation was the 599th overall selection in 2000. The Toronto Blue Jays held the 598th pick in that 20th round, so thankfully things came full circle. In Bautista, the organization can see the lottery-ticket value that exists in any prospect, whether it be their own or one from another system.

After floating around the top-15 organizational prospect lists of the Pirates and Orioles from 2001 to 2005, Bautista was thrown into the MLB blender in 2004. This is an important time period to discuss because at 23, Bautista was near the same age that Smoak was when his career ultimately began to fizzle.

In a period of  two months across June and July, Bautista wore four different MLB uniforms. After being claimed on waivers by the Rays from the Orioles, the Kansas City Royals purchased Bautista from Tampa. Soon after, he was traded to the Mets for Justin Huber in a one-for-one deal. Huber last appeared in the Major Leagues in 2009.

Bautista would finally return to the Pirates in a  larger deal with the Mets, where he would stay until 2008. That season, Toronto acquired Bautista for a player to be named later, which turned into Robinson Diaz. Diaz also has not seen an MLB field since 2009, and is currently playing in AAA with the Brewers organization.

Justin Smoak took streets lined with gold to arrive on Toronto’s bench, while Jose Bautista was cast off by team after team before rising to superstardom. What does it all mean?

It means go for it. The eternal worry of a prospect coming back to bite a club often causes general managers like Alex Anthopoulos to take pause, but Smoak and Bautista’s stories highlight the uncontrollable and unmeasurable side of baseball.

If Anthopoulos is able to align a deal that he deems to be somewhere in the neighbourhood of “fair”, pull the trigger. While the Jays may be handing over a future star, there’s an equal chance that they are selling high on a prospect that will never truly pan out, much like the Texas Rangers once did with Justin Smoak for Cliff Lee. In 2010, Lee went 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in two playoff starts, helping the Rangers to reach the World Series.

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