Blue Jays Series Preview: Twin Killing Would do Just Fine

Seriously kids, we know it is a long season and so far there has been more drama than Blue Jays fans could possibly want. Whether you are in the DL Jose Bautista camp or the let him DH camp or the Steve Delabar should close camp or the Marco Estrada is wasting Daniel Norris time in the rotation camp or the Kevin Pillar needs to be benched camp or or or or or. It is all part and parcel of a very long season. Hopefully with some improved performances in the bullpen, a turnaround for Mark Buehrle and the return of a rejuvenated Daniel Norris to the rotation we can start to see the fruits of the laborious first couple months of the season.

The opponent this time is the somewhat surprising Minnesota Twins who are 10 games over .500 and in the thick of the AL Central. They aren’t excelling at any one thing as a team (10th in ERA, 5th in BA, 6th in fielding).  No regular is hitting above the .280 sported by Torii Hunter and the rotation, aside from Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey who’s ERAs are under 3, is rather ordinary. With numbers like these it seems the Twins will not be able to sustain their record and are doomed to fall further down the AL Central ladder behind the robust Royals, Tigers and even Indians. Seems like a team that is ready to be teached (thank Lenny Kravitz for that line…)

May 23, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Mark Buehrle (56) delivers a pitch against the Seattle Mariners at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Game 1: Mark Buehrle (5-4, 5.13 ERA) vs Trevor May (3-3, 4.95 ERA)

Buehrle is slowly starting to get himself where he is supposed to be. He was giving up hits at an alarming rate to start the season but over the last three starts he has given up less than a hit per inning and his BAA against has dropped for the last five starts…though it is still at a needs-to-be better .312. His walks are higher than usual as well but not to the point of worrisome. Just something that needs to be kept in check. He usually was able to get the big out when needed and that is how he is able to keep his ERA in check. 2015 is a bit different. His ERA with runners on 2nd and 3rd is 33.75! Just at 3rd…20.25. With runners in scoring position….11.88. Here is where the problems lie. Buehrle needs to get the big outs and get them soon or else his season may well doom the Blue Jays.

May 23, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Trevor May (65) delivers in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Trevor May is still finding his groove in the majors. He had an ERA just a wee bit south of 8 over ten starts last season and this season he has definitely improved…to an ERA just south of 5. He seems to be considered a big part of the future in Minnesota but he best be turning it around quick or he may be bullpen bound. He has yet to make it out of the 7th inning and has given up his fair share of hits. The intriguing part about May is that in 43.2 innings he has walked a grand total of 8 while striking out 36. He has the same yips as his counterpart in that when there are runners in scoring position…they score (ERA of 18.62 with RISP).  Get the key out and watch the ERA fall…

May 24, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher

(41) pitches in the second inning against Seattle Mariners at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

Game 2: Aaron Sanchez (4-4, 3.98 ERA) vs Kyle Gibson (4-3, 2.72 ERA)

There was a while there where Blue Jays fans were wondering if Sanchez might have needed a bit more time in AAA (A la Daniel Norris). Well aside from the 5 run blip against Baltimore, Sanchez hasn’t been too bad…if you take out the walks. Lately, he is doing just that too! Sanchez seems to slowly gaining his command of his fastball and has started to get a little further into games thanks to a lower pitch count….derived from the afore mentioned lessening of the walks. Next up would be to get his hits per inning under 1 consistently. His WHIP is still not great (1.52) but he is trending in the right direction. Look for his ERA to keep dropping as the season goes on and his confidence grows.

May 24, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Kyle Gibson (44) delivers a pitch during the second inning against the Chicago White Sox at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Gibson, on the other hand, has been having quite a go of it this season. He is a definite to contact type of pitcher (GO/AO of 1.73) who doesn’t strike out many batters (27 in 56.1 innings) but doesn’t walk many either (17 all season). He could stand to give up a couple less hits here and there but really he has come into his own in his age 27 season. He may not have the splashy numbers expected of a former first-round pick but his WHIP is respectable (1.21) and he gives his team a chance to win every night.

May 25, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins pitcher

(47) delivers a pitch during the second inning against the Boston Red Sox at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Marilyn Indahl-USA TODAY Sports

Ricky Nolasco was a consideration for the Blue Jays just a couple of years ago. in 2013 he had an ERA under 4 and seemed on the verge of putting it together to become a great mid-rotation starter….then he signed with the Twins. An ERA of 5.38 last season was hoped to be just a blip. His ERA of 5.12 in 2015 is showing that this blip is a little more than a blip. He is turning into that type of pitcher who does so well in the senior circuit but short circuits in the junior circuit. He can’t handle a potent 1 through 9 type of line up….at least that is what he has shown so far. His BAA against is .315 and with RISP his ERA is 13.5o. These are the numbers of a guy on the verge of getting bullpenned rather than kept in the rotation. There is no silver lining here. He just isn’t very good.

May 26, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays designated hitter Jose Bautista (19) hits an RBI double in the seventh inning against Chicago White Sox at Rogers Centre. Toronto defeated Chicago 10-9. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Player to Watch

I wanted to pick a Twin but Jose Bautista is a total beast in Minnesota…specifically Target Field. He is hitting .356 in 66 plate appearances and has also recorded 11 home runs in 14 games there. That’s just crazy right there.

Prediction

It’s time for the down swing to start for the Twins. The Blue Jays are coming off a decent home stand where their starting pitching proved they can be ok. OK should be enough against this team and I foresee a 2 out of 3 ain’t bad kind of series.