Toronto Blue Jays series preview: On the road to Houston

May 12, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Edwin Encarnacion (10) celebrates with designated hitter Jose Bautista (19) after hitting a home run in the seventh inning against the Baltimore Orioles after at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays  continue their road trip on Thursday with a trip to Houston where the upstart Astros await.  After dropping their recent series to the Orioles in Baltimore, the Toronto Blue Jays sit at 5-5 over their last 10 games and 17-18 on the young season.

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If Toronto hopes to buck their trend of hovering around .500, they will need to do so against the 21-13 Houston Astros who sit atop the AL West.  While the Astros rotation led by Dallas Keuchel has been impressive, it is the power bats that have pushed Houston out of the basement and into the spotlight.

The Blue Jays’ spotty rotation will go under the microscope again with Drew Hutchison, R.A. Dickey, Marco Estrada and Mark Buehrle taking the hill in the four game set.  Each starter has taken their lumps early and is approaching the point where they need to quiet the doubters quickly, making the Houston lineup a daunting task.  If Toronto is able to steal three games from this set, they’ll return home above .500 for a 10-game home stand.

Next: Houston Astros: A boom-or-bust offense

May 9, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Drew Hutchison (36) throws a pitch during the first inning in a game against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Game 1:  Thursday, May 17th  –  8:10 ET

Drew Hutchison will take the mound in the series opener for the Blue Jays hoping to build off a moderate turnaround in his last outing.  Hutchison’s 3-0 record could not possibly match his 6.69 ERA any less, but against the Boston Red Sox on May 9th, he managed to limit the damage to one run through 5.0 innings pitched.

Hutchison continues to lead the Blue Jays in strikeouts, but fastball control will be the key to him regaining his status as a top-3 starter in the Blue Jays rotation.  His breaking pitches have been off due to inconsistent mechanics on the mound, and he has failed to complete five full innings in four of his last six starts.

The Houston Astros will counter with veteran right-hander Roberto Hernandez, who enters the series with a 1-3 record that has been sunk by bad luck more than poor pitching.  With an ERA of 3.86 and WHIP of 1.15, Hernandez has been a steady producer for Houston by completing 6.0+ innings in each of his past five starts.

Hernandez offers a sinking fastball that will top out at 89-90 MPH complimented by a slider and change that remain in the 80’s.  He’s likely to be around the zone and his velocities won’t blow anyone away, so an aggressive approach at the plate may benefit Toronto.

Next: Game 2: Dickey looks to rebound

May 10, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays opening pitcher R.A. Dickey (43) throws the ball against Boston Red Sox in the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

Game 2:  Friday, May 15th  –  8:10 ET

R.A. Dickey will follow Hutchison on Friday night, and it’s been a worrying start to 2015 for the veteran. Dickey’s last outing against the Boston Red Sox saw him allow six earned runs over 6.0 innings pitches, but the most worrying part of Dickey’s recent struggles is his inability to record strikeouts.  In each of his last two starts, Dickey has walked three batters but struck out none.  Something needs to change for Dickey, and fast.

Dallas Keuchel will get the start for Houston, and few starters in baseball are dealing like he is through the first month plus.  Keuchel sits at 4-0 with a 1.39 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, but did have his weakest outing of the season in his last trip to the mound.  The Blue Jays have a tendency to struggle terribly against aces or pitchers riding a hot streak, so this will be a test.

Keuchel will feature a fastball with movement around 90 MPH and compliment it with a slider or changeup sparingly.  The velocity is much like Toronto will see in game one from Hernandez, but Keuchel has had several starts earlier in the season with three walks surrendered.  He’s by no means unhittable, but the Blue Jays will need Dickey to shine in this matchup.

Next: Game 3: Estrada fighting for his role

May 5, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marco Estrada (25) gets ready to throw a pitch during the first inning in a game against the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre. The New York Yankees won 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Game 3:  Saturday, May 16th  –  7:10 ET

Marco Estrada is scheduled to pitch the Saturday game for Toronto, which could be one of his final auditions to stay in a starting role.  Daniel Norris is coming off a strong start in Buffalo, and assuming there are no roster moves made before this game, Norris may need just one more start before returning to the Blue Jays on the upswing.

Estrada did well to last 5.0 innings in his last start against the Orioles after a rocky first inning which featured two home runs, but he has clearly been stronger in a  long relief role.  Estrada’s changeup began to hang in the zone, and against a Houston roster that loves the long ball, this could be a risky matchup for the Blue Jays.

Houston will roll out the 32-year old Scott Feldman who sports a 2-4 record with a 5.23 ERA.  Outside of two ugly starts, however, Feldman has been a consistent source of 6.0+ innings and has usually done well to keep the Astros involved.  This is yet another starting pitcher who hovers around 90 MPH for the Astros, and Feldman will feature a cutter heavily, turning to a curveball later in counts.

Next: Game 4: Buehrle on sweep duty?

Apr 26, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Mark Buehrle (56) gets taken out of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Game 4:  Sunday, May 17th  –  2:10 ET

The finale of this four game set will see the veteran Mark Buehrle put his surprise 5-2 record on the line.  After two very worrying outings against Cleveland and Tampa Bay, Buehrle has settled down in his last two outings to resemble his 2014 form.  Age may be catching up with Buehrle to some extent, though, as he hasn’t been grinding deep into games thus far.

Houston’s final offering will be right-hander Colin McHugh, who enters with a 4-1 record and 3.50 ERA.  McHugh is coming off a moderately rocky outing in his last start, but was consistent in his prior outings and should be a solid bet to reach the seventh inning.  The most common pitch you’ll see from McHugh is a mid-80’s slider which he compliments with a 90 MPH fastball.

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