Four pitchers the Blue Jays should target in trade talks

Apr 28, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons (5) takes the ball from starting pitcher Drew Hutchison (36) during the fifth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

We’re about 5 weeks into the 2015 MLB season, and the Toronto Blue Jays are already standing at the precipice. At 13-15, the Blue Jays have flirted with inconsistency since day one, and it really isn’t hard to see where the fault lies in the equation.

While the offense is doing what it was meant to do, averaging more than 5.3 runs per game to pace Major League Baseball, the pitching staff has fallen well short of expectations. Granted, the freak injury to Marcus Stroman didn’t help matters any, but no one could have envisioned the level of ineptitude that has been present through the season’s first month-plus.

Entering their weekend series with the Boston Red Sox, the Blue Jays currently rank 27th in starters’ ERA (5.40), 30th in FIP (5.32), and 30th in WAR (-0.1). Meanwhile, things have only been marginally better from the relief corps, with the  Toronto ranked 19th in ERA (3.91), 17th in FIP (3.99), and 21st in WAR (0.2). Those are not good numbers, by any or all stretches of the imagination.

Of course, the question remains; how do the Blue Jays correct these issues?

Thankfully, Major League Baseball has an easy way to address almost any need. Of course, trading to fill a hole is certainly a means to an end. However, that requires Alex Anthopoulos being willing to pull the trigger on a deal, or at the very least getting permission from Rogers to spend the money. Now, Alex has said that the trading likely won’t happen until after the June draft, when teams have a better idea of where they stand, but that doesn’t stop us from speculating a bit earlier.

That said, let’s suspend belief for a moment and pretend that the Blue Jays could feasibly make a deal for a pitcher. Which pitcher or pitchers would make the most sense to pursue for the Blue Jays?

Next: Cole Hamels - Philadelphia Phillies

May 2, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels (35) delivers pitch during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies

Of all the pitchers on that could become available in the coming months, Cole Hamels is the only one that could be available immediately. However, he’s also the most expensive of the bunch, both in long-term commitment and in cost of prospects. With three years and $70.5 million in guaranteed money still due to Hamels after the 2015 season and a $20 million vesting option for a fourth season, there is some comfort in controllability with Hamels, especially if he can contribute at the levels he has in years past.

So far in 2015, Hamels hasn’t lived up to that standard. He’s thrown 37 innings in 6 starts, posting a 4.14 ERA and a 5.43 FIP, but has walked nearly two batters per nine innings more than last season and has already given up 8 home runs after surrendering 14 a year ago. One has to imagine that things can only get better for Hamels if his situation improves, but the increased walks and home run rates don’t necessarily encourage confidence when talking about bringing a pitcher into Rogers Centre.

Likelihood of a deal happening:

The big consideration with a deal for Hamels isn’t necessarily the price tag he travels with, but rather lies in the cost to acquire. Ruben Amaro has made no secret that he wants a king’s ransom in order to land Hamels in a deal, as evidenced by his desire to land not only Blake Swihart from the Red Sox, but also Mookie Betts and Henry Owens. The Blue Jays don’t have the pieces to compete at that level, not without crippling both the current roster and the long-term prospects for the team. With that in mind, it is difficult for me to see Toronto in the mix for Hamels, not with others with deeper pockets, deeper farm system, and bigger needs on the prowl.

Next: Matt Garza - Milwaukee Brewers

Apr 24, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Matt Garza (22) throws a pitch during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Matt Garza – Milwaukee Brewers

Like Hamels, has the unenviable task of taking the ball every fifth day for a team that just isn’t destined to go anywhere in 2015. Also like Hamels, Matt Garza has struggled to start 2015, posting a 4.58 ERA, a 5.45 FIP, and is surrendering home runs at a 20% HR/FB rate.

However, the right-hander is likely due for a turnaround soon. Garza owns a career ERA of 3.83, an FIP of 3.97, and the HR/FB is significantly higher than his career mark of 9.8%. Additionally, Garza is currently posting a career-low in K/9 at 6.11 and is hemorrhaging walks at nearly double his rate over the last five seasons.

In terms of long-term price, Garza has a likely advantage over Cole Hamels in that he’s only guaranteed $25 million over the next two seasons and has an option that vests at $13,000,000 if he pitches 110 games over the guaranteed time span, isn’t on the DL by the end of 2017 and has pitched 115 innings that season. Those are significant riders to hit for that option to vest, and even if it does, it isn’t astronomically high.

Additionally, the cost to acquire Garza will be significantly lower than the cost to land Hamels. Milwaukee is likely looking for a couple of prospects to deepen their system, but won’t be steadfast on acquiring on that is close to Major League ready.

Likelihood of a deal happening:

The Blue Jays and the Brewers were able to find common ground on a deal this past winter (Adam Lind for Marco Estrada), and the Brewers have already let it be known that they are willing to listen on all players. The difference in this deal is that the return package would be centered around prospects for a rebuilding Brewers team. Even if the cost in prospects is lower, Garza represents significant injury concerns. He has not made 30 starts in a season since 2011 and hasn’t thrown 200 innings since 2010. With his peripherals declining each season since 2011, the Blue Jays would view him as too much of a gamble at this stage in his career.

Next: Mike Leake - Cincinnati Reds

Apr 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Mike Leake (44) fields a ball for an out at first base in the eighth inning of their game against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. The Reds won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Leake – Cincinnati Reds

Mike Leake has made himself an interesting trade candidate in 2015. In six starts, the 27-year-old right-hander has posted a solid 2.47 ERA and an ERA+ of 152. An extreme groundball guy, Leake induces ground balls in 53.1% of his at-bats or at a 1.84 GB/FB ratio.

Those are encouraging statistics for a guy pitching in an extremely hitter-friendly park (Great American Ballpark – 9th in Park Factor), especially when you talk about bringing him into another park that typically plays favorably for hitters. Given the slow carpet in Toronto, it could even play as an advantage.

Of course, there are red flags for Leake as well. While he generates a ton of groundballs, he doesn’t see a lot of swing and miss action. His 5.6 K/9 ratio is currently the lowest of his career, and the combination of low K-rates and his groundball rates have left him with a 4.10 FIP, which is more in line with his career ERA of 3.85. That foretells that Leake is likely due for regression, especially if you introduce him to American League line-ups.

Likelihood of a deal happening:

The Cincinnati Reds are the classic example that Alex Anthopoulos was referring to. At .500 entering play on Friday, the Reds are 7 games out of first place, but that’s mostly due to the excellent start the Cardinals have ahead of them. That said, the Reds are looking at a significant turnover in terms of free agents after the 2015 season. Along with Leake, Johnny Cueto is also expected to hit free agency, and with Homer Bailey having undergone Tommy John surgery and out for most of 2016, the Reds may try to extend Leake before he hits free agency. He profiles very similarly to Rick Porcello and could be a solid, if not spectacular pitcher that could be overpaid if hitting the free agent market.

That said, there’s a deal to be made here, and could be light in terms of cost due to his impending free agency, but Leake’s availability likely won’t be known until closer to the deadline.

Next: Scott Kazmir - Oakland Athletics