Four pitchers the Blue Jays should target in trade talks

May 2, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels (35) delivers pitch during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies

Of all the pitchers on that could become available in the coming months, Cole Hamels is the only one that could be available immediately. However, he’s also the most expensive of the bunch, both in long-term commitment and in cost of prospects. With three years and $70.5 million in guaranteed money still due to Hamels after the 2015 season and a $20 million vesting option for a fourth season, there is some comfort in controllability with Hamels, especially if he can contribute at the levels he has in years past.

So far in 2015, Hamels hasn’t lived up to that standard. He’s thrown 37 innings in 6 starts, posting a 4.14 ERA and a 5.43 FIP, but has walked nearly two batters per nine innings more than last season and has already given up 8 home runs after surrendering 14 a year ago. One has to imagine that things can only get better for Hamels if his situation improves, but the increased walks and home run rates don’t necessarily encourage confidence when talking about bringing a pitcher into Rogers Centre.

Likelihood of a deal happening:

The big consideration with a deal for Hamels isn’t necessarily the price tag he travels with, but rather lies in the cost to acquire. Ruben Amaro has made no secret that he wants a king’s ransom in order to land Hamels in a deal, as evidenced by his desire to land not only Blake Swihart from the Red Sox, but also Mookie Betts and Henry Owens. The Blue Jays don’t have the pieces to compete at that level, not without crippling both the current roster and the long-term prospects for the team. With that in mind, it is difficult for me to see Toronto in the mix for Hamels, not with others with deeper pockets, deeper farm system, and bigger needs on the prowl.

Next: Matt Garza - Milwaukee Brewers

Apr 24, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Matt Garza (22) throws a pitch during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Matt Garza – Milwaukee Brewers

Like Hamels, has the unenviable task of taking the ball every fifth day for a team that just isn’t destined to go anywhere in 2015. Also like Hamels, Matt Garza has struggled to start 2015, posting a 4.58 ERA, a 5.45 FIP, and is surrendering home runs at a 20% HR/FB rate.

However, the right-hander is likely due for a turnaround soon. Garza owns a career ERA of 3.83, an FIP of 3.97, and the HR/FB is significantly higher than his career mark of 9.8%. Additionally, Garza is currently posting a career-low in K/9 at 6.11 and is hemorrhaging walks at nearly double his rate over the last five seasons.

In terms of long-term price, Garza has a likely advantage over Cole Hamels in that he’s only guaranteed $25 million over the next two seasons and has an option that vests at $13,000,000 if he pitches 110 games over the guaranteed time span, isn’t on the DL by the end of 2017 and has pitched 115 innings that season. Those are significant riders to hit for that option to vest, and even if it does, it isn’t astronomically high.

Additionally, the cost to acquire Garza will be significantly lower than the cost to land Hamels. Milwaukee is likely looking for a couple of prospects to deepen their system, but won’t be steadfast on acquiring on that is close to Major League ready.

Likelihood of a deal happening:

The Blue Jays and the Brewers were able to find common ground on a deal this past winter (Adam Lind for Marco Estrada), and the Brewers have already let it be known that they are willing to listen on all players. The difference in this deal is that the return package would be centered around prospects for a rebuilding Brewers team. Even if the cost in prospects is lower, Garza represents significant injury concerns. He has not made 30 starts in a season since 2011 and hasn’t thrown 200 innings since 2010. With his peripherals declining each season since 2011, the Blue Jays would view him as too much of a gamble at this stage in his career.

Next: Mike Leake - Cincinnati Reds

Apr 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Mike Leake (44) fields a ball for an out at first base in the eighth inning of their game against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. The Reds won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Leake – Cincinnati Reds

Mike Leake has made himself an interesting trade candidate in 2015. In six starts, the 27-year-old right-hander has posted a solid 2.47 ERA and an ERA+ of 152. An extreme groundball guy, Leake induces ground balls in 53.1% of his at-bats or at a 1.84 GB/FB ratio.

Those are encouraging statistics for a guy pitching in an extremely hitter-friendly park (Great American Ballpark – 9th in Park Factor), especially when you talk about bringing him into another park that typically plays favorably for hitters. Given the slow carpet in Toronto, it could even play as an advantage.

Of course, there are red flags for Leake as well. While he generates a ton of groundballs, he doesn’t see a lot of swing and miss action. His 5.6 K/9 ratio is currently the lowest of his career, and the combination of low K-rates and his groundball rates have left him with a 4.10 FIP, which is more in line with his career ERA of 3.85. That foretells that Leake is likely due for regression, especially if you introduce him to American League line-ups.

Likelihood of a deal happening:

The Cincinnati Reds are the classic example that Alex Anthopoulos was referring to. At .500 entering play on Friday, the Reds are 7 games out of first place, but that’s mostly due to the excellent start the Cardinals have ahead of them. That said, the Reds are looking at a significant turnover in terms of free agents after the 2015 season. Along with Leake, Johnny Cueto is also expected to hit free agency, and with Homer Bailey having undergone Tommy John surgery and out for most of 2016, the Reds may try to extend Leake before he hits free agency. He profiles very similarly to Rick Porcello and could be a solid, if not spectacular pitcher that could be overpaid if hitting the free agent market.

That said, there’s a deal to be made here, and could be light in terms of cost due to his impending free agency, but Leake’s availability likely won’t be known until closer to the deadline.

Next: Scott Kazmir - Oakland Athletics

Apr 24, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Scott Kazmir (26) throws a pitch against the Houston Astros during the sixth inning at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

Scott Kazmir – Oakland Athletics

Billy Beane always seems to have one of these pitchers that is heading toward free agency and if we know anything about Beane, it is that he’s always willing to make a deal happen. This year, that piece happens to be left-hander Scott Kazmir.

At 31-years-old and seemingly around forever, Scott Kazmir is the epitomy of a pitcher that has gone through it all, and he’s run hard with his second chance. Currently pitching on the last year of a guaranteed deal with the Oakland, Kazmir has put up an impressive 2.75 ERA, a 3.85 FIP, and an ERA+ of 147. Additionally, he’s striking out batters at a 9.2 K/9 ratio and is averaging about 6.5 innings per start. Needless to say, he could help a staff significantly if the right team comes calling.

Of course, the right team calling is still going to have to deal with Billy Beane, and Beane isn’t necessarily going to give Kazmir away, even if he’s pitching on a walk year. However, with Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin due for midseason returns, Kazmir could be had for the right price.

Likelihood of a deal happening:

Alex Athopoulos and Billy Beane have had a good relationship in terms of dealing, and the pair showed during this winter’s trade involving Josh Donaldson that a trade can be made without necessarily surrendering the top prospects in your system. Beane likes to think outside the box a bit and will evaluate everyone on the depth chart, looking for that diamond in the rough, and he may have to do just that with the Blue Jays farm system. The Blue Jays may not want to mortgage the farm system for a short-term rental, but it is possible a deal could be made with lower level talent.

Next: Scott Kazmir - Oakland Athletics