Toronto Blue Jays look to rebound in Boston

Apr 22, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Hanley Ramirez (13) is congratulated after he scored a run during the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Across the Diamond

The Red Sox haven’t gotten to 10-9 with dominant starting pitching, so that’s something that the Blue Jays will need to expose early and often.  It was an offseason of great change for the Boston rotation, and their performances are sure to level out shortly, but Toronto’s lineup of right-handed hitters will be aiming high to left field.

Offensively, Boston has been led by the newly acquired Hanley Ramirez, who has smacked 8 home runs for 17 RBI already in the young season, including two deep flies last night.  Pablo Sandoval got off to an underwhelming start after coming over from San Francisco, but hit his first home run with the Red Sox last night, as well, moving his slash line on the season to .273 / .377 / 348.

Past the two newcomers, along with Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts, the Red Sox lineup has seen some struggles. David Ortiz is still waiting for his bat to awaken as he sits with a .194 average, while fellow power threat Mike Napoli enters play at .169.  Mookie Betts, Allen Craig and Daniel Nava all sit below the .200 mark, as well, so the Toronto Blue Jays will be hoping that those cold streaks extend a few games longer.

Next: Game 1 preview: Can Sanchez shine?

Apr 11, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Aaron Sanchez (41) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Game 1, Monday:  Aaron Sanchez vs. Joe Kelly

Aaron Sanchez enters play with a 1-2 record and an ERA sitting at 5.14.  Despite not allowing more than 3 earned runs in any of his outings, the numbers could be much worse than they are, especially considering the 7 walks he issued in his last start.  This is a statement start for the young Sanchez, and a deep appearance would help to quiet the calls for his demotion or move to the bullpen.

Sanchez must learn to trust his stuff and avoid nibbling around the edges, which balloons his pitch count early.  He has the raw talent to beat MLB hitters with strikes, especially given the movement on his fastball.  This won’t be easy in Boston, however, with veteran bats like David Ortiz waiting to wrap a hanger around the short foul pole in right.

Joe Kelly will counter for the Red Sox, and has been their top starter to date.  Kelly did allow 5 earned runs over 5.0 innings pitched in his last outing, but managed 7 strikeouts compared to just 1 walk against the Tampa Bay Rays.  In 2015, he’s seen his velocity climb to 95-97 MPH, which is a big reason that he leans on his fastball or two-seamer on nearly 75% of his pitches.  Kelly also features a slider and curveball that is used sparingly.

Next: Game 2: Hutchison looks to stay hot

Apr 23, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Drew Hutchison (36) delivers a pitch against Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Game 2, Tuesday:  Drew Hutchison vs. Clay Buchholz

Drew Hutchison has sandwiched two poor starts in between his opening day outing and most recent appearance against the Baltimore Orioles.  His 2-0 record does not match up with his 5.48 ERA, but he showed signs of a true turnaround in his last start.

Hutchison’s fastball command looked much improved, which returned the “bulldog” mentality that we sometimes know and always love from the 24-year old.  His velocity had taken a subtle downturn early in the season, but his pitches looked much more alive against the Orioles.  For a pitcher capable of posting over 9.00 K/9, the Boston lineup could be ripe for a big day from Hutchison.

The Red Sox will counter with Clay Buchholz, who has had a similar season arc to that of Hutchison.  Buchholz looked stellar in his last outing, allowing just one run on to hits across 6.0 innings pitched, striking out 10.  Buchholz offers a fastball that sits in the low 90’s, along with a cutter, changeup and curveball that will drop down to 77-78 MPH.

Next: Game 3: Wherefore art thou, R.A. Dickey?

Apr 24, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher R.A. Dickey (43) reacts in the dugout after he gave up 4 runs during the fourth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Game 3, Wednesday: R.A. Dickey vs. Rick Porcello

Dickey takes the mound for the series finale, and recently, it hasn’t been pretty.  Entering with an 0-2 record and a 5.25 ERA, Buehrle has not been able to get hitters out in the strike zone.  His first three starts of the season saw him walk an uncharacteristic 12 batters, but his most recent start should be the biggest cause for concern.

Against the Tampa Bay Rays, Dickey allowed 9 hits and 7 earned runs over 4.2 innings pitched, but most importantly, he did not manage a strikeout.  This suggests that Dickey is not getting the movement that he needs in the strike zone.  With Hanley Ramirez and David Ortiz at the dish, Dickey’s floaters won’t stay in the ballpark long.

Boston will counter with Rick Porcello, who has allowed a whopping 18 earned runs through 25.0 innings pitched.  Porcell0 is a much better pitcher than this, of course, but his career with the Red Sox has not gotten off on the right foot.  The right-hander features a fastball that tops out around 92 MPH, along with a curveball, slider and change.

Next: Blue Jays player to watch: He's on fire!

Apr 21, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson (20) hits a double to drive in a run against the Baltimore Orioles in the second inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Player to watch: Josh Donaldson

Just when we thought it was impossible to swing a hotter bat than Devon Travis, in steps Josh Donaldson.  Donaldson has settled in beautifully to the number two spot in the order, and after Jose Reyes begins the game with his traditional 1-pitch at-bat, Donaldson’s presence brings power the plate quickly.

We’ve discussed several times that Russell Martin may not be the long-term answer at number two, suggesting at different points over the last month that one of Donaldson, Devon Travis, Dalton Pompey or Michael Saunders could succeed there.  Injury and performance have narrowed the field, but so far, Donaldson has starred.

Donaldson holds a career slash line of .412 / .577 / .588 at Fenway Park across 26 plate appearances.  Although it’s a terribly small sample size, which are only fun to use when they look good, I like the way that Fenway sets up for Donaldson.  If he can continue to stay ahead of pitchers, especially Buccholz and Porcello who throw much softer than Kelly, the Green Monster could own some new dents by Thursday.

Next: Series Prediction: Can the Jays return to .500?

Apr 25, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons (5) in the dugout during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Griffith-USA TODAY Sports

Series Prediction: 2-1 Blue Jays

With the current state of these two teams, this series could tip into a sweep from either side without much surprise.  Let’s give the Blue Jays the edge here, though, and it begins with the hope that Aaron Sanchez attacks the strike zone in game one.

Whether it comes from Jose Bautista, Russell Martin or John Gibbons himself, someone on the Blue Jays needs to assure the young pitcher that his stuff is not just MLB quality, it’s dominant.  A confident Sanchez should be able to dominate the strike zone just like he did from his 2014 bullpen role.

I like the ascending Drew Hutchison in game two, as well, especially if he can continue to lean on his great fastball.  After making some minor adjustments heading into his last start, everything seemed to click.  There’s now no need for further tinkering, and Hutchison can focus on pounding the zone early and often.

Game three is where I could see problems for the Blue Jays, especially if R.A. Dickey falls into another one of his “off” nights.  The short fence in right and Green Monster in left don’t bode well for hanging knuckleballs.  If the Blue Jays can head to Cleveland with a .500 record, it’s mission accomplished.

Next: Blue Jays poll: How would you address the bullpen?

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