Blue Jays series preview: Can Toronto answer the pitching of the Rays?

Apr 19, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Steven Souza Jr. (20) hits a 2-run home run during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Across the diamond, Tampa Bay continues to shuffle their roster heavily from year to year but still maintain success.  The usual suspects of Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings are both hovering around .200 averages, but their bats are long overdue to awake.

Tampa’s most lethal all-around bat has been the 25-year old Steven Souza Jr., who came to the club this offseason as part of a three-team deal with the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres after winning the AAA International League MVP in 2014.  In that season with Syracuse, Souza hit a sizzling .350 / .432 / .590 with 18 home runs and 26 stolen bases.  The speed and power threat is starting to click lately, and when he gets ahold of a ball, it’s a question of which deck it will land in.

Logan Forsythe and Tim Beckham continue to provide some pop from the middle infield alongside the struggling Asdrubal Cabrera (.217 AVG), but the Rays are getting some serious contributions on both sides of the ball from a 2010 31st round pick.

Kevin Kiermaier made an encouraging debut in 2014, and has lived up to his growing expectations early in 2015 with a .279 average complimented by 2 home runs, 5 doubles and a triple.  He’s given Tampa some highlight reel grabs in centre-field, too, but the Blue Jays may be catching him at the right time as he’s batting just 1-for-11 in his last four appearances.

Next: Game 1 preview: Dickey vs. Smyly

Apr 18, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher R.A. Dickey delivers a pitch against Atlanta Braves at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

R.A. Dickey takes the ball in game one, and it’s been a strange ride through his first three starts.  After a spring that saw him featuring great control on the knuckleball, Dickey has issued 12 walks in just 18.0 innings pitched.  Some of this can be brushed away as the unpredictable nature of his pitch, but not all of it.

Dickey’s movement certainly has not been lacking, so he could be in line for a strong outing in the dome if he is able to locate the strike zone a little more often.  Dickey will have a familiar face behind the plate in Josh Thole, recently recalled for the injured Dioner Navarro.

Despite the walks, Dickey enters the game with a 3.26 ERA and has allowed just 11 base hits.  His 0-1 record comes with a stronger ERA than the 3-0 Mark Buehrle, but Dickey hasn’t earned his own luck just yet.  Expect him to slowly return to his mid-season form, and give the Blue Jays 190-200 quality innings with a record in the neighbourhood of 12-12.

Drew Smyly counters for the Rays, and will make his first start for the club after coming over as part of the David Price deal last season.  He was shut down for the remainder of the year soon after arriving with the Rays due to a high innings count, and is now returning from a shoulder injury.  This should see him on a pitch count around 85-90, so the Blue Jays may be able to crack the bullpen early.

Smyly will feature a fastball that he can add cutting action to around 90-92 MPH, which he plays a quality high-70’s curveball off of.  Control isn’t often an issue with Smyly’s game, so the Blue Jays will need to avoid pitcher’s counts where the curveball can take over.

Next: Game 2 preview: Norris vs. Somebody?

Apr 19, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Daniel Norris (32) throws a pitch during the first inning in a game against the Atlanta Braves at Rogers Centre. The Atlanta Braves won 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Game two will see Daniel Norris looking for a bounce back start after some early struggles have brought the dreaded “dead arm” conversation to the forefront in Toronto.  Norris’ first two outings against the Yankees and Rays were OK, but he was rocked by the Atlanta Braves on the 19th, allowing 6 hits and 4 earned runs over just 2.2 innings pitched.

These are the outings that the Blue Jays cannot afford to have, as it eats into a bullpen that is already under question from many outside the organization.  While Norris’ velocity still isn’t showing at the levels it did during his fast rise last season, it’s his control and approach on the mound that are cause for worry.

Norris, like several Jays pitchers, is guilty of nibbling.  Instead of attacking hitters in 0-1 or 1-1 counts, Norris has been flirting with the edges of the strike zone, and never truly trusting his stuff to get the job done over the plate.  This leads to hugely inflated pitch counts, and shows the opposing hitters his entire arsenal before their second trip to the plate.

Tampa Bay has yet to announce a surefire starter for their Saturday matchup as their rotation struggles with health and performance from the 5th spot.  Erasmo Ramirez got a kick at the can against the Blue Jays on April 16th, but ended up getting his own can kicked and has now allowed 16 earned runs through 6.1 innings pitched.  Gulp.  We’ll keep you updated on the Saturday starter, but it may be another opportunity for the Blue Jays offensively.

Next: Game 3 preview: Buehrle vs. Archer

Apr 15, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Mark Buehrle delivers a pitch against Tampa Bay Rays in front of an image of Jackie Robinson during the second inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The series finale on Sunday will see the veteran Mark Buehrle looking for his fourth win in as many starts for the Blue Jays.  Through April, Buehrle has been exactly what the Blue Jays need him to be: a steady source of 6.0 innings pitched that keeps the offense within firing distance.

Buehrle has been hit hard, though, with 23 base bits pushing his current WHIP to 1.50.  He holds a 7-3 career record at Tropicana Field, however, and should benefit from pounding the strike zone against an uncertain lineup.

Unfortunately, the electrifying Chris Archer will counter for the Tampa Bay Rays and look to continue on his dominant start to the 2015 season.  Archer’s 2-2 record should be much better, as he enters play with a 1.07 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.  He’s struck out 20 batters over his last 12.2 innings pitched, and an earned run hasn’t crossed the plate.

One of those outings was his 11 strikeout performance against the Blue Jays last week, where Toronto’s hitters looked beyond baffled throughout his start.  A second look at the 2015 version of Archer should help, especially if they are able to eat into the bullpen behind him earlier in this series, but game three should prove to be a daunting task.

Next: Player to watch this weekend

Apr 23, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays left fielder Danny Valencia (23) scores as the ball gets away from Baltimore Orioles catcher Ryan Lavarnway (34) in the third inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Player to Watch:  Danny Valencia

We all knew that Danny Valencia was a lefty-masher, with a career line of .332 / .371 / .508, but he surprised on Thursday by going 1-3 with 2 runs and 1 RBI against the right-handed Chris Tillman.  Valencia also played some quality defense in left field, his first Major League appearance at the position, so his bat and versatility could be a huge factor with the injuries to Jose Bautista and Dioner Navarro.

Valencia reportedly put in some serious hours with Bautista and Encarnacion working on his game against righties, and has started out the 2015 season by going 7-13 with 3 doubles.  Although we need to see a lot more before assuming he can hit right-handed pitching in any capacity full time, Valencia represents a high-quality bench player that the Blue Jays have not always had.

While Bautista may soon return along with the recalling of Michael Saunders, Valencia should feature into the 1B/DH conversation, especially with lefties on the mound.  Look for him to be in the lineup versus Drew Smyly for the opener on Friday, and he could earn some more reps with another strong performance.

Next: Predictions for the series

Apr 22, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Devon Travis (29) throws over Baltimore Orioles second baseman Ryan Flaherty (3) during the ninth inning in a game against the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. The Toronto Blue Jays won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Series Predictions:

Game 1:  Toronto Blue Jays

Drew Smyly is a very talented pitcher, and one that I love to watch throw, but I like the Blue Jays chances of hitting the lefty in his first taste of the big leagues in 2015.  His rehab outings have been going well, but with a pitch count likely to be in place, Toronto should approach the plate with patience and get the benefit of some hitter’s counts.

The Jays’ chances will, of course, increase if Jose Bautista is able to return to the game, but the right-handed bats in their lineup should match up nicely.  Edwin Encarnacion is due to wake up, and the scorching-hot Josh Donaldson is 4-for-6 lifetime against Smyly with a home run.

Game 2:  Toronto Blue Jays

This game should be the tipping point of the series, but I trust Daniel Norris to bounce back.  While I’m not expecting a complete game shutout, 6.0-7.0 innings with 2-3 earned runs would be a great rebound.  Now that the awe of the Major Leagues has hopefully dulled to a quiet roar for Norris, he can attack the zone early and often with confidence.

We’ll have a better image of this game when Tampas’s starter is confirmed, but given that it’s not Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi, the Blue Jays should be relieved.  This will be a valuable opportunity to weaken the bullpen reinforcements before facing Chris Archer on Sunday.

Game 3:  Tampa Bay Rays

Yes, there will be times that we must pick against the Blue Jays!  After the outing that Chris Archer had in the first matchup, a lot would need to change this time around.  Toronto has struggled with hitting the wall against dominant, front-end pitching in the past, but there’s no time like the present to change course!

If they’re able to crack Archer, Dickey seems to be a small adjustment away from giving the Jays a quality deep outing.  If he does, we can crank up the talk about the benefit’s of having Josh Thole as his personal catcher again.  Can’t wait!

Next: Michael Saunders expected to return Friday

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