Blue Jays Starting Rotation Power Rankings

Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

The 2015 season is only 13 games old. That means that each starter has had 2 or 3 starts to his credit. While that is hardly enough from which to draw any conclusions, it is enough for us to start our Power Rankings. In this installment, we’ll look at how the starters are performing and rank them accordingly.

There are a couple issues when ranking the rotation based on such a small sample size. Firstly, it is such a small sample size. We all know that through the course of a season, any starter is capable of putting up 2-3  bad starts in a row and still be quite productive and valuable. As well, as is the case with Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez, we’re still getting used to seeing them on a regular basis and watching them learn to adjust to the big leagues and the quality of batters they’ll face.

Having said all of this, it has not been a great week for the starting rotation thus far. As of Monday, the Blue Jays’ rotation is 24th in MLB with a 5.14 ERA. They’re 19th with a .264 average against, 20th in strike outs (50), 29th in walks surrendered (33), 26th in earned runs (39) and 17th in innings pitched with 68.1. Granted, there is LOTS of time to turn this around, but it is not exactly a great start.

Perhaps the one good thing to cling to is that all 5 starters have made their starts. Knock on wood. Anyway, without further ado, here are our Power Rankings for the Blue Jays’ Starting Rotation. Being that this is the first one of the season, we’ll use more of a look at their numbers to decide their rank.

Next: Blue Jays Starting Rotation Power Rankings #5

Apr 16, 2015; Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

In 2 starts, Aaron Sanchez has gone 0-2. He’s only managed to collect 8.2 innings over these two starts. His K/9 rate is identical to his BB/9 rate of 5.19. And, just to make matters worse, his HR/9 rate is over 2 (2.08) and his xFIp sits at 5.00. To say that Sanchez is struggling early is obvious. Hitters are hitting .333. Now, that also includes a BABIP of .345. Perhaps what is the most scary about his numbers is that there has been a decrease in his ground ball rates from last year to this year and an increase in his fly ball rates.

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In the early goings, he’s using his fastball less in favor of his change. As well, his fastball velocity is down. This wouldn’t be a big deal if he were having success. But, where his selection of 4 seam, 2 seam fastballs and his curveball were all plus pitches last year, they are costing him runs this season. The only good news is that the development of his slider is working well for him. Sanchez is going to have to gain control of his repertoire if he is to land higher on these rankings.

All of this comes with the caveat that we’re comparing his small 2015 sample to a small 2014 sample where he came out of the bullpen. As the season goes on, we’ll be better able to make judgments. Now, this is just for fun.

Next: Blue Jays Rotation Power Rankings #4

Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Before we get into it, we should acknowledge that Norris doesn’t exactly have the track record for us to making truly meaningful comparisons. But, we can still take a look at his time to date. He started the season off very well for the first few innings in New York. But, since has had an increasing amount of struggles. In 3 starts, Norris is 1-1 through 13.1 innings. That is an average of just over 4 innings per start. While his K/9 rate is fairly good at 6.75, his BB/9 is not (4.73). Like Sanchez, he’s also giving up his share of HR at the rate of 2.03/9 innings. His xFIP sits at a monstrous 5.98. Norris has been hittable to a an average of .275. Combine that with a walk rate of 11.7% and it is easy to see why he has had a rough go since the start of 2015.

Betsided

He could benefit from inducing more ground balls as his rate has taken a dip form last year. As well, there has been an increase in his fly ball rate. If you’re not in the strike zone and you’re giving up hits, it would be preferable to  keep the ball on the ground. Batters are making contact nearly 75% of the time against him and when he’s in the zone, hitters are making contact 91.5% of the time.

Part of Norris’ struggles can be explained by his recent admission of a bout of ‘dead arm’. It would be extremely difficult to put up good numbers when you have difficulty getting a feel for the ball and control it. Hopefully, this passes and he can make a rise in these rankings.

Next: Blue Jays Starting Rotation Power Rankings #3

Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Drew Hutchison has made 3 starts, including the Opening Day match up at Yankee Stadium. Since then, he hasn’t really lived up to that honor. He’s 1-0 (the win coming in that first game of the season) through 15 innings. He’s managing just 5 innings per start. While his K/9 is great at 8.4, he’s had some issues with giving up the walks. Now, a BB/9 rate of 3.6 is not as bad as some of the Blue Jays starters, it is not good. His xFIP sits at 4.28. And, in those 15 innings, he’s given up 12 earned runs including 3 round trippers. 

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Control has been an issue for Hutch. He’s hit 2 batters and uncorked 2 wild pitches to go along with his 6 walks. Now, Hutchison is doing a good job of starting at bats with a first pitch strike rate of 62%, but he’s having trouble with the rest of the at bat. Batters are hitting .270 against him with a .304 BABIP. Interestingly enough, there has been a decrease in fly ball rates, but an increase in ground balls. But, the HR/ fly ball rate has jumped dramatically this season. When they hit him in the air, it isn’t pretty.

In the early goings, Hutch is relying more on his off speed stuff more than he did last year. His fastball usage has decreased with this change. This may not be a bad thing since right now, the only pitch that has been providing a positive value in the run saving department is his change up (5.5 runs/ 100 pitches).

Drew Hutchison seems to be hitting a wall when he approaches the 5th inning. Sometimes, he doesn’t even last until then as we saw on Friday against the Braves. He’s going to need to pick things up as the season progresses. Yes, it is early, but the Blue Jays need him if they are going to contend.

Next: Blue Jays Starting Rotation Power Rankings #2

Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

R.A. Dickey has been the hard luck starter thus far. He’s gone 3 starts and sits at 0-1 having gone 19.1 innings. That’s more than 6 innings per start. His K/9 totals are quite good thus far at 7.45. As well, his HR/9 is minuscule at 0.93 having given up 2. He’s holding batters to a very impressive .164 average. And, anyone who does get on base is being stranded 80.2% of the time. 

Betsided

What has hurt Dickey is the walks. He has allowed 12 free passes in his 19 innings. That’s a rate of 5.59/9. It explains why his xFIP is so high at 4.92. If his team is going to only score 3.33 runs per game (according to oddsshark.com) Dickey is going to have to be that much sharper with his command. Which may be asking a bit much from a guy who throws a knuckle ball.

When Dickey starts, the Blue Jays potent offense has not been helping him out like they are capable of doing. This is going to be a problem moving forward Dickey can only do so much. Asking him to control a semi-uncontrollable pitch better is unfair. Yes, his command should improve. It has to. But, for right now, Dickey is doing the best job of any one of the other starters.

Next: Have Your Say

Apr 13, 2015; Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

There you have it. Based on a very small sample size, you have the first Power Rankings for the Blue Jays starting rotation. This is obviously a fluid endeavor since there will be good performances along the way that will help some of these guys out. There will also be bad showings. As well, there may even be some other guys who make an appearance to make a spot start here or there. One never knows how the season will go. For right now, this is how the starters stack up.

 1. R.A. Dickey
2. Mark Buehrle
3. Drew Hutchison
4. Daniel Norris
5. Aaron Sanchez

Please feel free to have your say below. How would you rank the Blue Jays starting rotation?

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