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Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos and his Draft Gurus

By Mat Germain |
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Dec 9, 2013; Orlando, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos talks with reporters during the MLB Winter Meetings at the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

ALEX ANTHOPOULOS AND HIS DRAFT GURUS

Alex Anthopoulos has led the Jays through a half-decade’s worth of drafts. Most of you are probably thinking how that sounds like too many, and that it seems like yesterday that he made his draft debut and selected Deck McGuire with his first draft pick ever as a GM. Thankfully, that wasn’t the most memorable selection of his tenure. His draft gurus are led by Andrew Tinnish and include Jim Beattie, Ed Lynch, and Sal Butera. They are his trusted inner circle when it comes to scouting issues. As we get set to ramp up our thoughts of the 2015 MLB Amateur Draft, we want to rewind through past drafts and take a look at whether he and his beloved draft gurus have been out drafting others, achieving average results, or under-performing as a whole.

When he took the reigns, Alex Anthopoulos had just been part of the team that drafted newly anointed Jays ace Drew Hutchison, and followed was had been a long line of past Jays draft successes. We’ll kick things off with an Alex Anthopoulos quote about Jays strategy. He was quoted as saying:

“Instead of trying to go toe-to-toe and dollar-for-dollar in terms of player acquisition and so on – and I think one day we may be able to do that with the fan base here and the upside of the market – where we stand today, let’s go toe-to-toe with staffing, let’s go toe-to-toe in terms of employees. If we can get the best scouts, the best player development people that can come in here, the results from the players side that we’re going to see from a development and talent aquisition standpoint, whether it’s trade or drafting, should lead to great results up in Toronto.”

What did it result in? Well, as Gerry of Batter’s Box stated, it led to an “increase the size of the amateur scouting ranks from 28 to 54”, quite a jump in numbers and something that put the Jays ahead of any other MLB team at the time. I laid out what the resulting positions were in this post and updated it in 2011, both of which lay out which areas were covered, which areas were not, and the change of focus – mainly a greater attention to Latin America. After looking at the current scouting department, since 2010, one aspect I noticed is that the Jays have increased the number of International scouts from 8 to 13, and have reduced the number of scouts in Canada from 4 to 2.

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Not only did the Jays hire more scouts, but their scouts didn’t have to travel as much, they got raises, and they got to spend more time with their families. All of these things were meant to make things great for their scouts, right? Nobody really knows, however, of all of the scouting department members present when Anthopoulos had finished his first draft, only a quarter remain. Some of the ones who have remained have been promoted which does indicate loyalty, but when only one International scout remains through five years, questions do come up.

I’m sure the intent of all changes made to the scouting department were aimed at attracting the very best scouts in MLB, and to have them perform on a high level. But, when Alex Anthopoulos and his tight knit draft gurus fail to retain so many of the people they hired in 2010 it’s either a failure to hire the right people to begin with, or an indication that something is not quite right in their scouting ranks. That being said, it certainly didn’t hurt their performances, as they have consistently drafted well through the years.

Let’s kick things off with a review of their drafts so far under the guidance of Alex Anthopoulos.

2010

Pre-2010 season minors system rankings by BA:

19th. This is the same grade the Toronto Blue Jays were given in 2009 by Baseball America, and a the Jays consistently finished in the bottom third of MLB prospect talent rankings while Ricciardi was in charge.. GM. with Alex Anthopoulos advising. J.P. RICCIARDI

Then came what I coin, the Wonder Year. So many have pointed to this draft as one of the best ever for the Jays, and who can blame them when so many have made it to The Show or are very close to it. The Jays really did their homework that year and came out big winners. This was only possible after Alex Anthopoulos signed and let go Marco Scutaro (Sanchez), Rod Barajas (Wojciechowski), and had a compensation pick for failing to sign James Paxton (Syndergaard). Let’s see the list – so far:

  1. Aaron Sanchez (1s rd, 34th overall) TOR
  2. Noah Syndergaard (1s rd, 38th overall) NYM
  3. Justin Nicolino (2nd rd, 80th overall) MIA
  4. Sam Dyson (4th rd, 126th overall) MIA
  5. Sean Nolin (6th rd, 186th overall) OAK
  6. Dalton Pompey (16th rd, 486th overall) TOR
  7. Kris Bryant (unsigned) (18th rd, 546th overall) CHC

To come out of one draft with that much MLB worthy talent is outstanding. We all know the Kris Bryant story and how the Jays didn’t sign him – boy would they love to turn back the clock for that decision, but he’s not the only loss from that list. The Jays eventually traded away some serious talent, and although the Jays successfully drafted 7 MLB worthy talents, only 2 remain with the club.

Some people do question how good the draft would have been for the Jays if they didn’t have 7 picks before the end of the second round. The compensation picks definitely boosted the haul for the Jays, so was this an extremely well scouted and drafted list of players for the Jays, or was it mostly a result of having so many early picks due to compensation rules? What puts this theory to rest is who the Jays nabbed in the later rounds, players such as Dalton Pompey and Kris Bryant, who were excellent well-scouted players. With everything accounted for, you have to hand the Jays a high grade for this draft. What did the experts think?

2011

Pre-2011 season minors system rankings by BA:

4th. You have to admire just how much of a difference one draft can make for a system. To jump up 15 spots based on one draft, as well as one international signing period which saw the Jays signed <strong><a href=. GM. and his Draft Gurus. ALEX ANTHOPOULOS

What we wanted to see going into the 2011 draft was whether or not all of those extra picks were the only reason he Jays were able to draft so much great talent. Fans were already enjoying the fact that the Jays had signed the majority of their picks, unlike in 2009 when they missed out on James Paxton. In my opinion, the scouting department went beyond expectations during this draft year, selecting the following prominent prospects and/or MLB players:

  1. Tyler Beede (unsigned) (1st rd, 21st overall) SF
  2. Daniel Norris (2nd rd, 74th overall) TOR
  3. Anthony DeSclafani (6th rd, 199th overall) CIN
  4. Luke Weaver (unsigned) (19th rd, 589th overall) STL
  5. Aaron Nola (unsigned) (22nd rd, 679th overall) PHI
  6. Kevin Pillar (32nd rd, 979th overall) TOR

Within this draft, the Jays had much fewer compensation picks (5) and the four 1s compensation picks have not made much of a move since being drafted. Some, particularly Dwight Smith Jr still have promise and a chance to make it, but the climb is steep. What was more impressive about this draft was the number of late round impact picks and the obviously great selection of Daniel Norris in the 2nd rd.

Anthopoulos had invested in a bigger, better scouting department and after only two drafts, the Jays had identified a whopping 13 MLB worthy talents! Yet, the Jays wound up trading 4 of the MLB talents identified in the 2010-2011 drafts, allowing one to leave through waivers (Sam Dyson), and did not sign 4 of them, leaving them with 4 of a possible 13 in the system. Could this eventually be an issue for those working so hard in the scouting departments? After all, what the scouts saw was a first rounder left unsigned and later on many other great talents allowed to walk. Could you feel their pain?

Their draft was still an excellent one, minus the unsigned player. You can only knock the unsigned pick so much anyhow, since the Jays knew it would lead to another high pick in 2012 and that pick wound up being yet another great Jays pick, Marcus Stroman. The Jays also signed international players, such as Roberto Osuna, Jesus Tinoco, Jesus Gonzalez, Dawel Lugo, and Jairo Labourt. A great haul considering the future Osuna has with the team and the potential of Lugo and Labourt. The international scouting department had done a great job thus far under Alex Anthopoulos.

Sep 15, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marcus Stroman (54) pitches during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

2012

Pre-2012 season minors system rankings by BA:

5th. The Jays retained a great minors system ranking to this point, mostly since major deals hadn’t been completed yet, and Alex Anthopoulos and his draft gurus were proving to be a force to be reckoned with.. GM. and his Draft Gurus. ALEX ANTHOPOULOS

Heading into the 2012 draft, everyone was wondering if not signing Tyler Beede was going to be a huge issue for the Jays and whether they would regret it. At the time, I personally thought he was missing out on an opportunity and jeopardizing his career to get an education he could have paid for with his signing bonus. However, things turned out alright for Beede and he’s now in San Francisco’s system pitching for their HiA San Jose club. Well, with the non-signings of Paxton (2009) and Beede (2011) fresh in the mind of fans and media, here’s what the Jays got in the 2012 draft in terms of MLB talent or potential MLB talent:

Fans breathed a sigh of relief when the Jays signed all of their top picks, and recognized that the Beede non-signing was not as big a deal as most expected due to the compensation selection during this draft. However, this is the first draft year where the Jays did not draft, identify, or target MLB talent after the 3rd round (so far). Also, aside from Stroman, none of these guys have moved very fast. You can attribute this to the club identifying high school players (23 of 44 picks) instead of concentrating on College players.

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Was this a change in strategy done on purpose, or just their board being what it was as players were selected? Only the Jays brass know, but this is the first draft under Alex Anthopoulos that didn’t produce more than one guaranteed MLB player or pitcher. So, unlike previous years, the Jays wound up keeping all of their top draft talents, and used some of their international talent in later trades instead of drafted players.

The Jays signed three tremendous international players in 2012, Franklin Barreto, Richard Urena, and Miguel Castro – the current closer for the Jays at only 20 years of age. All of these players have bright futures and could be impactful players in MLB within 2-3 years. The international department just kept on trucking, although Barreto was recently used to get Josh Donaldson this offseason, a necessary and key piece for Oakland in that deal.

Again, this brings us back to Alex Anthopoulos and his draft gurus being able to draft and scout players effectively so that they can be attractive enough for the Jays to nab top-flight products from other MLB clubs. In this case, the Jays may not have had the pieces needed to grab what is arguably the best, possibly second best, third basemen in all of MLB. That is the true value of an enhanced and more capable scouting department. They bring you the tools to manage the team on a different level than other teams.

The investment in the scouting department was already paying dividends and it seemed that by this point in AA’s tenure, there was always going to be 2-3 MLB talent players coming out of each draft. That’s impressive.

2013

Pre-2013 season minors system rankings by BA:

22nd. In a flurry of trades, the Jays dealt Hechevarria, Nicolino, DeSclafani, <strong><a href=. GM. and his Draft Gurus. ALEX ANTHOPOULOS

Although I applaud the aggressive moves that were made as a fan that wants to see the Jays win now, I can also understand how all of these deals would frustrate a scouting department that was hoping to see waves of talent travel through Toronto’s system in very much the same way that we see it being done in St-Louis and elsewhere.

Heading into the 2013 draft, the Jays not only hoped for a bigger haul than in 2012 to replenish their system and get themselves set for years of success. What they wound up selecting in the draft – again, many of these players need time to full develop, included the following prominent players:

Whenever a scouting department drafts and signs a player the caliber of Tellez that late in the draft, you have to applaud it. In truth, the selection was made knowing full well that signing some top picks may be hard to do (Bickford). The Boyd and Graveman selections were also outstanding. However, Jays fans and media were feeling down on the team – and rightfully so – because of the team’s continued inability to draft players in the first round that they would be able to sign.

This became a worrisome trend as of 2013, and something that has plagued Alex Anthopoulos in many drafts, whether advising or at the reins, the ability to sign top talents. The Jays were lucky in previous years that AA’s brilliant strategy of signing players to small contracts in order to get compensation picks, something that kept them selecting great players. But, at this point, rules were altered, and the margin of error was therefore much smaller. The rule changes magnify the importance of nailing down a great first round pick.

I’m not sure if the Jays recognized their error or just simply decided to change focus because of the lack of compensation, but they were extremely aggressive in getting players on the international side of things in 2013, in terms of numbers that is. They signed 14 players, including Yeltsin Gudino, Miguel Almonte, and Freddy Rodriguez.

Max Pentecost- Image via bluejays.mlb.com

2014

Pre-2014 season minors system rankings by BP:

ALEX ANTHOPOULOS. 13th. We couldn’t get free access to BA’s grade for this one, so we used the one provided by Baseball Prospectus instead. The Jays had some compensation for failing to sign Phil Bickford in this draft and they got a really great piece in return in the 2014 draft. However, by this point, the Jays system – despite aggressive international additions – had fallen to middle of the road in terms of rankings. Did fans care much? Some did and still do, but I feel most would say they enjoyed the aggressive nature of the deal Alex Anthopoulos made to better the on-field product.. GM. and his Draft Gurus

We’ll focus on the best draft-year guys from this draft since most are too far away to predict success or failure:

Based on their first performances and overall package, you can see that the Jays selected a lot of players and pitcher you can envision making it to The Show. The Jays also remained determined on the international front, signing (with international ranking from BA in brackets) Juan Meza (10th), Kevin Vicuna (30th), Jesus Navarro, and Guadulupe Chavez.

It’s hard to provide a complete analysis of what the 2014 haul brought in for the Toronto Blue Jays, but one thing we know is that the guys listed above have real promise, and Hoffman in particular has a chance to become the steal of the entire draft class. There’s also little doubt that Pentecost will be an MLB catcher. At this point, it’s more of a question of whether he’ll be a starter and how great he will become. I certainly believe this class shows promise should continue the trend of AA’s draft classes to find at least a trio of MLB talents.

What will 2015 bring? Nobody can say for certain, but expert expectations are that pitching will dominate the early rounds.

Here is the Jays pre-2015 draft by BA:

10th. The Jays jumped up 3 spots from previous year’s BP ranking and was in the top third. Actually, not they don’t if you consider that 6 of the top 10 Jays prospects on BA’s list are on the active roster today!. GM. and his Draft Gurus. ALEX ANTHOPOULOS

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Despite a slight hiccup where the system fell to the lower third of the talent rankings (22nd), it has generally been able to remain in the top half of MLB. That tells us that not only have Alex Anthopoulos and his draft gurus been able to identify talent in the draft and on the international market, but they’ve dealt a ton of them and still wound up with an extremely talented system. So talented, in fact, that

6 of the top 10

made the starting roster this season and there are still near MLB ready talents waiting behind them in AA.

I know that we can all sit back and identify teams that have grabbed the Mike Trout and Chris Sale caliber players and challenge whether or not the Jays have been just as successful. I also know that fans have a right to be frustrated about missing our on some key talent, as listed above. And, finally, I also know that the scouting department definitely had the right to ask itself questions and ponder whether or not their efforts were worthwhile. After all, this is a Jays scouting department that has NEVER selected first overall, and I once wrote a piece entitled “Will Jays Ever Draft In Top 4 Again” for good reason. There’s just no comparison between what they’ve had to draft with when placed against others – such as what the Rays have had. The Rays have selected 4 first overall picks since 1999 and 8 top 4 picks in same timeframe compared to none in top 4 for Jays from 1997 on.

I do, however, want fans to picture a world where J.P. Ricciardi had stuck around and not used the compensation picks strategy and had not been as aggressive on the international side of things. Just ponder if he kept this strategy going, something that frustrated fans for a long time in Toronto:

“Ricciardi was also clear that his key asset – the club’s wealth of young pitching talent – is not a chip he’ll trade in easily. He’s banking on the usually dependable stars who didn’t fully perform this season – Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay – to return to form, while second baseman Aaron Hill, out half the season with a concussion, simply returns.”

Reluctance to deal, reluctance to realize how to improve your team, and reluctance to use your prospects to improve your team. It just didn’t work. That Jays team fell short of the playoffs every time because they weren’t willing to do the hard things that need to be done to keep the flow of prospects going while also using that wealth to better the MLB team. In fact, as he works for the New York Mets, it seems that they are using the Ricciardi way over there as well as they have been reluctant to make moves needed to bring them closer to the top.

Alex Anthopoulos and his draft gurus should be commended for doing an outstanding job. I’m not sure why the scouting department has had such a high turnover rate. It may be systemic, it may be that those people were ready for new challenges, or it may be that the Jays wanted fresh or improved talents. What I do know is that regardless of who has been doing the scouting, the Jays have been able to alter their strategy to fit the rules, picks, and bonus totals they have to work with. They’ve refocused their attention to Latin America, and they’ve been able to keep a great flow of prospects going as a result.

Which draft has impressed you the most in the tenure of Alex Anthopoulos and his draft gurus?

Eric Elliot touched on some Draft Preview items for the Jays this season here. The Jays enter the 2015 draft with a steep hill to climb as they forewent their 1st rd selection due to the signing of Russell Martin and will only be able to make their selection with the 29th overall pick. Their next pick isn’t until the 51st selection and their final top 100 selection is 91st overall. The Jays had 8 top 100 picks in 2010, 7 of them in 2011, 6 of them in 2012, 3 of them in 2013, and 4 of them in 2014. This indicates that their job has gotten consistently harder to do when preparing for the draft and forces to remain as focused as possible.

With a half decade’s worth of drafting history to go on, I’m confident Alex Anthopoulos and his draft gurus will figure it out. Enjoy the team folks and know that Alex Anthopoulos and his draft gurus have the team covered. Now let’s see what the prospects haul has in store in 2015 and see just how they’ll get maximum returns.

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