Blue Jays should look at these under the radar relief trade options

Aug 16, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Houston Astros relief pitcher Josh Fields (35) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the fifth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Josh Fields

Fields might not necessarily be on the market due to his strong underlying numbers in 2014, and he may be something that the Astros covet, but after the signings of Pat Neshek and Luke Gregerson this offseason, the Astros bullpen looks rather busy.

Following the aforementioned Neshek and Gregerson, the Astros have bullpen mainstays Tony Sipp and Chad Qualls, creating a solid back of the bullpen. Along with them, they have a number of young arms who got a taste of the bullpen last year, who look ready to take on larger roles.

Along with a full bullpen, he also got demoted to AAA in May of 2014 due to poor performance, and went on the 15 day DL due to forearm soreness. All of this combined could make him available for the right price.

Fields doesn’t look to appealing at a quick glance, with ERA’s of 4.45 and 4.97 in ’14 and ’13 respectively, but his peripherals, especially in 2014, offer plenty of value and the potential to acquire him before his ERA lowers to a number closer to his 2014 FIP.

His 2014 FIP of 2.09 led him to a 1.5 fWAR, but it was his very strong 11.52 K/9 and career best 2.80 BB/9 that show signs he could be a valuable back of the bullpen piece. His 2014 HR/FB was 2.9%, which is due to raise, but even if that raises to league average, his numbers are still strong, which is evidenced by his strong 3.15 xFIP.

The culprit for his high ERA? Most likely his very high BABIP of .343 – well above league average – and his 60.4 LOB%. If those two normalize to near league average rates, along with his HR/FB, you’re looking at a solid bullpen piece with the potential to be a back of the bullpen arm with his strikeout rate.

He relies on his cutter, throwing it 64.38% of the time in 2014, sitting at 95.33 mph and getting 17.15% of swings and misses with the pitch according to Brooks Baseball. Opponents hit .245 against it due to a .400 BABIP, which is bound to regress.

He throws his curveball 20.10% of the time, and while it doesn’t garner a high percentage of whiffs, opponents only .229 against it. He compliments those two pitches with a changeup that averaged 79.04 mph with a 10.24 whiff percentage.

The former first round draft pick in 2008, and rule 5 selection in 2012 showed dramatic improvements in 2014, and his ability to produce a high strikeout rate makes him an intriguing option. Along with that, the 29-year-old is under control for three seasons.

Next: From the Rocky Mountains to the Sky Dome?

Mar 14, 2014; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Christian Friedrich (53) pitches against the San Francisco Giants in the fourth inning at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Christian Friedrich

The former first rounder in 2008, drafted 25^th overall, pitched well in the low minors, registering strong numbers and a high strikeout rate as a starter, but he’s struggled to see that transition to higher levels and into the major leagues.

He received 16 starts in 2012 for the Rockies, and like many starters in Colorado, he struggled to put up strong numbers, and secure a rotation spot for himself. Poor performance and an ailing back limited him to four AAA starts in 2013, and 2014 saw more struggles as a starter.

But in August of last season, Friedrich was moved into the pen and he finally saw success at the major league level. The numbers he posted aren’t at all good at a first glance – 5.94 ERA, 4.00 FIP through a measly 24.1 IP – but it’s his numbers solely from the bullpen that give a glance at what he’s capable of.

More from Jays Journal

• Matt Chapman has been exactly what the Blue Jays needed
• Blue Jays: The goalposts are moving in the right direction
• Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays advance to the Championship Series
• Blue Jays: Comparisons for Alek Manoah’s Second Season
• Blue Jays: Adam Cimber, the unlikely decision King

Albeit a very small sample size out of the pen, Friedrich put up a 1.64 ERA while striking out 13 and walking only two through 11 IP. The strong ERA was supported by an even better FIP of 1.59, and a strong xFIP of 2.37. There’s no questioning his numbers are likely to rise with a bigger sample size, but there’s no doubt his stuff played up while pitching in short stints.

He all but abandoned his sinker and change after his first three appearances of the year, which were starts, and predominantly went with his four-seam and slider in his relief outings. In doing so, his velocity increased and his whiff percentage climbed, especially with his slider.

In his relief outings, he notched a swinging strike percentage of 20.7%, which could very well regress with more innings, but to put that in perspective, that number led all relievers with at least 10 IP, ahead of Aroldis Chapman who posted a 20.0% SwStr%. Dominant closers Craig Kimbrel and Greg Holland registered SwStr%’s of 16.6% and 15.0% respectively.

Of course, it’s not a rarity to see a pitchers stuff and numbers receive a sizable boost after moving to the pen; however, it’s definitely encouraging to see, and he could be a buy low option with the potential to be an asset out of the bullpen.

A fellow top prospect and first round draft pick in 2008, although much higher at 4^th overall, Brian Matusz has also seen plenty of success after moving to the bullpen, and can act as a comparison for what Friedrich could accomplish.

Matusz saw success in his rookie year in 2010, finishing fifth in the AL ROY voting with a 4.05 FIP, but followed that up with a 7.66 FIP (10.69 ERA… yikes) through 12 starts in 2011. After struggling again in 2012, he was moved to the pen. Since that move, his K% has moved from 17.6% to 25.4%, his BB% has moved from 8.7% to 7.5%, and his FIP has been a tidy 3.28 in 116 IP.

It’s no guarantee that Friedrich will be able to have success like Matusz has, but the encouraging results last year, and the increase in effectiveness of his stuff gives the potential for him to be an impact reliever.

Next: Trade in Dodger Blue for a Blue Jay?

Aug 11, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers relief pitcher Carlos Frias (77) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the ninth inning at Turner Field. The Dodgers defeated the Braves 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Frias

The Dodgers 25-year-old right-handed pitcher has spent seven years in the minor leagues, and while possessing a power arsenal, he hasn’t produced at any level that has placed him on any top prospect lists.

Despite that, and putting up mediocre numbers between AA and AAA in 2014, he was added to the 40-man roster, and received the call in August to work out of the Dodger pen, and provide a couple spot starts.

The 6.12 ERA is underwhelming, but that number was severely bloated by a spot start he made on September 17^th in Colorado in which he gave up ten hits and 8 earned runs without getting through the first inning.

His 3.60 FIP, 8.07 K/9, and 1.95 BB/9 don’t tell the entire story either, but they show what the young arm is capable of. Frias made 15 appearances last season – two of them being starts – but he’s primarily been a starter throughout his minor league career.

The aforementioned underwhelming numbers between AA and AAA last year came virtually as a full time starter – he made one appearance out of the bullpen – and that wielded a 5.7 K/9 through 123.2 IP between the two levels. His BB/9 was a solid 2.2, and that number has increased throughout his time in the minor leagues, but the lack of strikeouts and consistently high ERA and FIP totals aren’t encouraging for his ability as a starter.

He possesses a terrific arm, averaging 95.36 with his four seam, 94.43 with his sinker, and 90.08 with his cutter. Even out of the pen, he managed to mix in all his pitches while keeping his walk rate low, and generating a 20.00% whiff percentage with his power cutter.

If he were to focus on two or maybe three pitches, he could flourish in a bullpen role with his velocity and low walk rate.

The Dodgers still think enough of the young pitcher’s potential to invite him to their winter development camp. It’s unclear if he’ll be pitching out of the bullpen or the rotation, but if there’s an opportunity to acquire him in a buy low scenario and switch him to full time relief duties, it’s something the Jays should definitely consider.

Perhaps this won’t be an option until the Dodgers give him another shot. If he fails to impress in spring, or finds himself in the minors struggling to produce consistently strong results, then it could become a possibility.

Next: Could extra Cubs arms fill Jays need?

Sep 9, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Chicago Cubs relief pitcher Blake Parker (50) pitches against Toronto Blue Jays in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

Blake Parker

Parker offers an excellent buy low opportunity. Buy low is a term I’ve used plenty throughout this piece, and it’s clearly a theme here, but Parker provides a particularly interesting case. He went from being a solid reliever who provided plenty of value from the pen (0.6 fWAR) in 2013, to losing his job, and spending more than half of his time in AAA in 2014.

He doesn’t possess overpowering stuff, yet he’s always been a strikeout guy both in the minors leagues and major leagues, and his peripherals from 2013 to 2014 were similar in many ways. Of all the buy low opportunities I’ve gone through, I’m inclined to think that Parker offers the best combination of potential value and availability from the opposing club.

First off, the Cubs bullpen looks very full, which, you would think, would make him available in a trade. Justin Grimm, Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon, and Neil Ramirez are coming off strong seasons, and there spots in the bullpen should be all but guaranteed. Felix Doubront should see the bullpen as he’s on the outside looking in for the rotation, and the Cubs also signed Jason Motte, who’s expected to be in the bullpen. That leaves one available spot, and they might be inclined to give it a lefty, as Doubront is the only lefty within that group.

His strong 2013 season, saw him post a 2.72 ERA, supported by a 2.90 FIP and 3.54 xFIP, and a strong 10.68 K/9 and 2.91 BB/9. 2014 was a different story. His 5.14 ERA is ugly, but his 3.28 FIP and 3.12 xFIP suggest he could have been unlucky. His K/9 stayed strong at 10.29, and his BB/9 actually improved, going to 1.71.

The potential culprit for his struggles, perhaps the .350 BABIP he surrendered, his low LOB%, and the problems with the home run ball – 1.29 HR/9 and 10.3% HR/FB.

With the poor BABIP, and high HR numbers, you’d assume he’d have poor batted ball ratios, but they were nearly the same as 2013. His LD% was nearly identical, going from 22.1% to 22.2%, his GB% went up from 28.7% to 31.7%, and his FB% got lower, 49.2% to 46%. A 46% FB ratio is hardly good, but the dramatic spike in HR% could very well normalize to a rate similar to what it was in 2013.

His 63.0% LOB% was down from 77.4%, which also had a negative effect on his run totals. It’s another statistic that is prone to normalizing year to year.

Of course, it’s a risk to expect him to return to his 2013 numbers, but his batted ball numbers suggest it’s possible.

His repertoire essentially consists of a fourseam, curveball and splitter, all three of which had significantly reduced velocity in 2014. Despite the dip in velocity, his fourseam whiff percentage was still solid after a reduction, but his curve and splitter saw big jumps. If the velocity reduction correlated with a drop in swing and misses across the board, it would be more concerning, but he still showed the ability to miss bats.

His contact and swing rates were nearly identical as well, including his strong SwStr%, which was 11.4% in both seasons.

His AAA numbers also suggest someone who can return to his 2013 numbers. He posted a 1.77 ERA, 2.97 FIP, with a heavy strikeout total of 13.12 while saving 25 games. AAA numbers don’t always suggest he’s a capable MLB reliever, but it’s encouraging to see him get sent down and have success, unlike someone all too familiar in Steve Delabar last season.

With a full Cubs bullpen, and very similar – if not better – peripherals to his strong 2013 season, Blake Parker looks like he has a good chance to have a bounce back season, and provide value to whichever team he pitches for. If I’m the Jays, at the very least, I would be finding out the availability and asking price.

Next: Why the Blue Jays would be better off without Big Game Games