Toronto Blue Jays’ Steamer vs. Reality: Pitchers

Sep 13, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher R.A. Dickey (43) delivers a pitch against Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

As 2014 comes to a close at Jays Journal, we have been taking one final look back at the season that was for the Toronto Blue Jays.  In many discussions looking forward to the coming year, we have used Steamer projections to help forecast the potential impact that players on the Blue Jays’ roster may have.  These projections are far from the gospel, believe me, but in an effort to put their accuracy to the test, we have compiled a two-part series entitled “Steamer vs. Reality”, which puts the Toronto Blue Jays’ 2014 Steamer projections up against their real production.  Part One of the series, along with the 2015 Steamer forecasts, can be found here:

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• Steamer vs. Reality Part One: Position Players
• 2015 Steamer Projections: Pitchers
• 2015 Steamer Projections: Starting Lineup
• 2015 Steamer Projections: Second Base

These past Steamer projections come courtesy of Razzball.  Some of these projections did prove to be fairly accurate, and just as it was with the positional players, the accuracy tended to improve with veteran players who have an established record of performance.  In other situations (see: Santos, Sergio), the projections weren’t on the same planet, but at the very least, these offer an educated opinion of a players “expectations” for last season, whether they met them, and gives you a final opportunity to debrief on the year that was for Toronto Blue Jays’ pitchers.

R.A. Dickey

Dickey loses some support from fans because his default tag of “Ace” produces expectations he isn’t able to reach, but there’s no denying he had himself a nice season.  As is tradition, Dickey came on stronger in the second half and put up a great innings total, something the rotation will need desperately with uncertainties in the bullpen for 2015.

Mark Buehrle

How dare Steamer doubt Buehrle’s ability to hit 200.o IP?  The lefty took the opposite trajectory of Dickey in some ways, starting the season playing at a Cy Young level, then losing steam as the Summer wore on.  If Buehrle could post this exact same stat line in 2015, I’d be more than happy.  If he can give the Blue Jays’ lineup 6-7 innings and keep them close, Buehrle could see a couple extra wins.

Drew Hutchison

Steamer didn’t have as much confidence in Hutchison’s ability to throw a lot of innings last season, and understandably so.  Thankfully, the righty was able to be a staple in the Blue Jays rotation and flashed some very encouraging signs through 2014.  Another 30+ starts from Hutchison in 2015 would be great, especially if he can lower that ERA and keep his strikeout pitches rolling.

Next: Stroman, Happ and the bullpen