Toronto Blue Jays’ Steamer vs. Reality: Positional Players

Sep 28, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) hits a single during the third inning in a game against the Baltimore Orioles and at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout December at Jays Journal, we took a look forward to the 2015 season of the Toronto Blue Jays with Steamer projections that had been forecast for each player.  These projections compile advanced statistics from a players’ recent seasons to provide a prediction of their performance in the year to come.  The Toronto Blue Jays future projections can be found here:

• Toronto Blue Jays Starting Pitchers
• Toronto Blue Jays Starting Lineup
• Toronto Blue Jays Second Base

As we always say, Steamer projections are not an absolute science, in fact they’re far from it, but they do offer an educated opinion on the trajectory that a player could be taking.  These are valuable when looking for a player who may be trending up or down, or when looking at which statistics were an outlier from a player’s norm.  Baseball fans often discuss a player as “underachieving” or “not meeting expectations”, so allow these Steamer projections to act as a (very) rough picture of what those expectations were.

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Several readers had mentioned a curiosity in the accuracy of past projections from Steamer, so we have decided to bring you a two-part series of “Steamer vs. Reality”.  This will show you each player’s projection for 2014 along with their actual stat line.  Some soared above expectations, some floundered below, and since even a dead clock is right twice a day, some statistics were predicted perfectly.  This shows the ability for projection systems to be more accurate with veteran players who have established performance levels, such as Jose Reyes.

Included in this list are Toronto Blue Jays who played 50+ games last season, while players such as Maicer Izturis were included for their potential involvement in 2015 and players such as Dalton Pompey were excluded due to the lack of  an MLB Steamer projection entering last season.  The Toronto Blue Jays’ offseason additions are also included on the final page.  The statistics taken from Razzball have been rounded to the nearest whole number where applicable.

C Dioner Navarro

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Navarro was a pleasant surprise in most categories this past season, especially in terms of games played.  Someone get a raise for the man who projected Navarro would steal three bases, by the way.  The Blue Jays took a calculated risk with Navarro, whose ability to hold up and produce for another full season was questionable, but the move certainly paid off.

C Josh Thole

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Thankfully Thole didn’t approach this projected playing time, or the Blue Jays would have been in trouble.  We all know the holes in Thole’s game, but you get from him exactly what you expect.  With Russell Martin likely to give the knuckleball a try with R.A. Dickey this Spring, Thole may become expendable.  A move of Navarro could change this, though, and put Thole into competition with A.J. Jimemez.

Next: Catchers, 1B, 2B and SS

Aug 5, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Brett Lawrie (13) reacts to a hit in a game against the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. The Baltimore Orioles won 9-3. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

3B Brett Lawrie

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If Lawrie had of hit these projections, would he be an Oakland A?  Would Josh Donaldson be a Toronto Blue Jay?  Lawrie battled injuries, again, and is now boosting Red Bull’s stock value in America instead of Canada.  He may turn it around in Oakland, but his Blue Jays’ days will be remembered for unrealized potential.

3B Danny Valencia

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Valencia’s numbers from 2014 won’t blow anyone away, but I feel that he can be quite successful in a reserve or platoon role in 2015.  Valencia is great against left-handed pitching, and should be valuable off the bench at the very least.

3B/DH Juan Francisco

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His projections were a bit ugly, and so was his season.  After an incredible start to the year, Francisco was figured out fast by MLB pitchers, and turned into a strikeout machine.  He didn’t seem to care much, either.  Francisco is the type of “free out” AB that the Blue Jays need to remove from their lineup going forward.

LF Melky Cabrera

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This shows very well just how good Cabrera’s season was, as he blew his projections out of the water in most areas.  Many fans are still sour about not having Melky back, but would he be able to put up these numbers again, or does an overachieving season like this suggest he’ll trend downward in 2015?  Time will tell.

LF Kevin Pillar

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Fairly accurate across the board for Pillar, who is the lead dog for the 4th OF position with the Blue Jays next season.  If he could take a walk at the MLB level, I think he could be just fine.  Between having Rookie Dalton Pompey as his main competition in CF and Michael Saunders’ injury history in LF, Pillar could see a big role in 2015.

CF Colby Rasmus

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The power was there in 2014, but Rasmus’ inability to get on base consistently was his downfall.  He surely has the ability to turn it all around, he’s still young, but it won’t be as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays.

CF Anthony Gose

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Now gone to Detroit in exchange for Devon Travis, it’s too bad that Gose never found his ceiling in Toronto.  If he had of developed a line-drive stroke he could have really clicked, but that’s the Tigers’ problem now.  Here’s hoping they can get a helmet that fits him, or a chinstrap.  Pompey takes over with similar speed to Gose, but the potential for a much better approach at the plate.

RF Jose Bautista

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When a player of Bautista’s calibre exceeds his projections this much, you know it was a good season.  Bautista’s health was very encouraging this season, and his veteran approach at the plate had him one step ahead of opposing pitchers all season long.  2015 could be an exciting year for the Blue Jays’ star.

Next: The New Guys

Nov 20, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Russell Martin (left) shakes hands with general manager Alex Anthopoulos after Martin was introduced at a press conference at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

C Russell Martin

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Martin went above and beyond expectations in 2014, and turned that into a nice little contract with the Toronto Blue Jays.  I’m not sure how much room there is between here and his ceiling, but here’s hoping he finds some.  Between Bautista and Martin, the Jays will have two players coming off a .400+ OBP season.

1B Justin Smoak

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Smoak is coming off an ugly season, but there’s always the glimmer of hope with a former top prospect.  Smoak’s power could play well in the Rogers Centre, and he has every opportunity to get well into the 20’s with HR’s, but his AVG and OBP must get up to an acceptable level.

3B Josh Donaldson

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Donaldson performed right around expectations in 2014, even a little over in some areas, and I’d be happy if that’s exactly what he did this season.  The Rogers Centre should also be a huge boost to Donaldson’s power stroke, and he could get comfortably into the mid-30’s with deep flies.

LF Michael Saunders

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In terms of statistics, Saunders was trending the right way in 2014.  The only issue is his games played, especially when put on the turf in Toronto, so that will be something to keep a close eye on.  He has big shoes to fill, but possesses the ability to do so.