Toronto Blue Jays: Who is the Ace?

As of right now, it looks as though the Toronto Blue Jays are content to enter 2015 with the starting rotation it has. Granted, a lot can happen in the next 2+ months of the winter, but right now, it looks as though the rotation will include (in no particular order): R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Drew Hutchison, Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez. At first glance, it would look as though they do not have an ace to lead this staff. Now, leadership can take many forms, but on field performance is what makes an ace. The Blue Jays do not appear to have one.

We could debate whether Aaron Sanchez, or Marcus Stroman for that matter, has the potential. But, I’m not interested in potential, here.

Betsided

I’m talking about right now. Come Opening Day, there is no clear choice as to whom manager,

will give the ball. But, one question nags at me:  If they are not going to bring in an ace, just who would fill that role for the Blue Jays? Who is the ACE of the Blue Jays pitching staff?

In order to answer this question, I went searching for the definition of an “ace”. I came across a beauty of an article from Zachary D. Rymer at BleacherReport.com. He outlines what makes a true #1 starter and what separates the big guns from the merely ‘good’. In this piece, Rymer points to a few categories of statistics that define an ace. I’m going to use that as my basis for this discussion. We’ll look at a pitcher’s stuff, their consistency and their ability to dominate a game. Let’s look at how each Blue Jays starter matches up. All the info I used is from both Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com. These sites are amazing!

The Right Stuff?

In order for a guy to be called an ace, he has to bring the goods. He has to have dominating weapons to throw at hitters.  In looking at each starter’s “stuff”, we’ll dig into their velocity (ideally, an ace sits mid 90s- Dodgers Ace, Clayton Kershaw‘s career velocity is 93.1mph), runs saved with their #1 pitch per 100 pitches (wFB/C for example), their secondary pitch, their command and their overall repertoire.

R.A. Dickey-

Now, this is a bit unfair to judge Dickey on since his ‘honey pitch’ is his knuckler, but his fastball (which is actually his secondary pitch) sits at a declining 81.6mph. You want your ace to sit at least mid 90’s. But, Dickey’s knuckleball is an animal of its own with an average velocity of 76.3mph. An ace needs to have his go to pitch save runs. So, Dickey needs his knuckleball to be effective. It hasn’t. His wKN/C has a value of -0.13. That number should be positive. It tells us that the knuckleball hasn’t saved any runs at all. Quite the opposite, in fact. The fact that he can adjust the speed of it dramatically helps makes it deadly. That is, IF he can control it.

His strike out percentage averages at 17.1% for his career and he reached 18.9% last season. He threw 65% strikes last season with a first pitch strike percentage of 62.6%. His walk percentage was 8.1%. According to the Rymer piece, these numbers show really good command; the command of top hurlers. If you also take into account the fact that he’s doing it with a knuckleball, it makes it much more impressive.

Dickey’s repertoire features the knuckler, a fastball and a change. It is hardly the Roy Halladay bag of tricks. You pretty much know what you’re going to get from Dickey. The only thing that makes it more difficult is the change in velocity on his knuckleball; a soft and a hard version. Can we count that as like having another pitch?

Mark Buehrle–

Before we even look at the numbers, we know Marky Mark doesn’t throw hard like an ace should. At all. But, just for fun, let’s take a look. While a true #1 starter has a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Buehrle’s sat at a declining 83.9mph last season. He’s lost 3mph since 2007. Last season, his fastball actually cost runs. His wFB/C value was -0.28.  But, he’s never been a hard thrower. He’s had to rely on his other stuff. He’s used his changeup as his secondary pitch. It was his only pitch that saved a positive amount of runs (wCH/C of 0.46). But, it may lose its effectiveness if the two pitches become so close in velocity.

Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

He’ll have to rely on command to be effective. Buehrle’s K% sits at 13.8% for his career and 13.9% last season. He threw 64% strikes last season with a first pitch strike % of 59%. His walk percentage was 5.4%. All of these numbers are eerily consistent over his career. Indeed, we can see that command is what allows Buehrle to enjoy the success he has. He can command his pitches. The addition of Russell Martin should help Buehrle with this given the fact that Martin adds strikes to his pitchers’ performances.

Buehrle features an arsenal of Fastball, change, cutter and curve. The 4 pitches are good tools to have for an ace. They are what help Buehrle keep hitters off balance. That he can throw any of them for strikes at any time allows him to get the most out of his ‘soft stuff’.

Drew Hutchison–

After having Tommy John surgery and missing 2013, the Blue Jays were not sure what they would get from #HutchShow. Early returns are good. In fact, his fastball velocity in 2014 was higher at 92.2mph than in 2012. While good, his velocity is not the mid 90s you’d like from your ace, but it is respectable. His fastball did not save him any runs last season. His wFB/C value was -2.1. His secondary pitch is his slider, which sits at 84.5mph and actually helped saved him nearly a run with a wSL/C value of 0.64. It was his only pitch to do so. Again, an ace has to have a huge pitch he can rely on. Hutch doesn’t seem to have one.

He struck out 23% last season, throwing nearly 64% strikes- 59% of which were first pitches. His walk percentage last season was 7.7%. Again, these numbers are good. They show his ability to control his arsenal. Perhaps the problem for Hutchison was the 87.4% contact rate of balls in the zone. Perhaps, he could benefit from not catching so much of the zone with his arsenal.

#HutchShow brings a fastball, slider and a change. While he can have success with this mix of pitches, an ace may possess more in the tool box to rely on. Granted, he does throw a two seamer with his ‘regular’ fastball. So, that makes 4 pitches. The difference in velocity from his fastball to his change is just 7mph. A more dramatic difference in speeds could help him be more devastating. As of right now, his change is costing him nearly 3 runs per 100 pitches (wCH/C=-2.96)

Marcus Stroman–

Many have questioned Stroman’s ability to dominate due to his small 5’9″ throwing plain. His height will impact the ‘flatness’ of his pitches. But, #StroShow silenced a lot of critics last season. Let’s take a look at whether he is an ace, though. His velocity of 93.6 is near that mid 90s mark for an ace. His two seamer sat at 92.6. His fastball was a huge asset for him as it yielded a wFB/C value of 1.12. That means in 100 pitches, he saved 1.12 runs by using his fastball. That’s ace type stuff. It’s below Clayton Kershaw’s 1.27 mark, but  4 TIMES that of Felix Hernandez‘ 0.28 mark. His secondary pitch- the curveball (16.2% of his pitches) has a wCB/C value of -0.96, which is not good in a secondary pitch. Stroman may want to consider throwing his slider more as it has saved him 0.60 runs per 100 pitches.

His repertoire of pitches is quite impressive. He features a fastball, two seam fastball, a cutter, a slider a curveball and a changeup. Now we’re talking! This is the kind of tool box an ace possesses. Being able to pull out any one of 6 pitches at any time is going to keep too many things in a hitter’s mind going. If he can keep them guessing, Stroman is in for a great career. Having said that, having these pitches is not enough. You have to be able to have command.

Stroman struck out 20.8% last season on 64% strikes, which is nice. His relatively low (for an ace) 58.4% first pitch strike rate needs improvement. He walked just 5.2% last season, which is very good. Stroman needs to improve on his swinging strike percentage. At just 8.5%, one could make the argument that hitters aren’t missing when they swing at his stuff. Perhaps that brings us back to his lower plain. Maybe hitters are seeing the ball better off him. Aces seem to have the ability to get those big swings and misses when they count.

Aaron Sanchez–

Any examination of Sanchez’ performance MUST come with the caveat of “small sample size” being that he only saw 24 games with the big league club (out of the bullpen). We know this. So, take the following for what you will.

Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

This kid has the velocity of an ace. His fastball averaged 96.9mph. Oh, and his two seamer sat at 97.1. While his fastball was huge for him saving him 1.39 runs per 100 pitches, his two seamer was even better with a wFT/C of 2.87! Imagine! Nearly 3 runs per 100 pitches saved off of one pitch. Wow! But, it gets even better. His curveball saved 3.47 runs per 100 pitches! Obviously, given the small sample size, these numbers are not likely to play out in a full season of starting. But, man. Sanchez has the right stuff; the stuff of an ace.

With numbers like this, we might be able to overlook the fact that he only features 3 pitches. He used his two seamer the most at 58.3% followed by his fastball and his curve. Perhaps the thing that separates his pitches is the movement he gets. Man, it’s a thing of beauty to watch. I’m torn. I’d like an ace to have the repertoire of Marcus Stroman with the effectiveness of Aaron Sanchez.

Sanchez struck out 22.3% last season on 61% strikes while throwing just 53.7% for first pitch strikes. His walk percentage of 7.4% also needs to come down. He threw 41.9% of his pitches in the strike zone and when he did, hitters made 90.7% contact. Perhaps with Russell Martin behind the dish now, Sanchez can avoid catching so much of the zone and still get strikes. Or, maybe what makes him good is his ability to go right at hitters. He doesn’t need to be so fine.

Verdict-

When you compare the “stuff” of the Blue Jays’ starting rotation, there isn’t one clear stand out as an ace. Marcus Stroman has the variety of pitches ideal to an ace while Aaron Sanchez has the quality pitches required for domination. Mark Buehrle has the command you’d like to see. But, based on “stuff’, I’d give the nod to Marcus Stroman. While I drool over the ‘filthiness’ that flies out of Sanchez’ hand, I’d like to see it play out over a full season…as a starter.

Good Ol’ Mr Dependable?

When we look for an ace, we look to see if the pitcher can wow us with all of the above, but on a consistent basis. One benchmark is the 200 inning plateau. That tells us that they take the ball every 5th day, which is incredibly valuable. It is something the Blue Jays hold in very high regard.

As well, we can look at their average Game Score (GmScA). For those of us who are unfamiliar, GameScore is described by BaseballReference.com as follows:  “This is a value created by Bill James that evaluates how good a pitcher’s start was. You start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (or 3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.” The GameScore of a true ace would be over 60. Though, as Rymer points out, those who’ve reached that level are very few in number.

To further our examination, we’ll also look at Win Probability Added (WPA) and the actual things in a game the pitcher has direct control over- Ks, BB, HR, etc, in their  Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as indicators of consistent domination. A great ace will have a FIP as low as possible, obviously, but 3 is a realistic goal. Anything under is gravy. Kershaw put up 2.63 last season. So, here we go.

Dickey-

Dickey has reached that elusive 200 innings pitched in each of the last 4 seasons. Since his comeback as a knuckleballer, he has been very dependable. There is far less stress on the arm from a knuckleball, which means fewer injuries (at least to the throwing arm). His durability is most of the reason many believe he is well worth the $12M he’ll make in 2015. He also averaged 6 1/3 innings per start last season. While good, an ace’s should be higher.

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, Dickey’s GameScore was 53.9. For comparison, in his Cy Young year (2012), he put up a value of 62.1. Comparing the two seasons, we can get a sense of the difference between ace-like performance and…not.

Let’s look at his Win Probability Added. An ace should also ADD Wins to his team. There has to be a heavy impact by having this guy taking the mound every 5th day. For Dickey, that impact is not so good. Last season, he put up -1.29 WPA. Granted, it is better than 2013 where he scored -1.56. Again, for comparison, his 2012 value was 2.18. For further comparison, Kershaw put up a value of 5.47 last season. But, needless to say, a negative number here is not ace material. It means taking wins away.

If we look at the things Dickey CAN control (FIP), he looks less like an ace than I had originally thought. His 2014 FIP sits at 4.32 (for the record it is projected to go up to 4.50 next season). This is likely due to his WHIP of 1.23, which included 26(!) HR. This is definitely NOT ace material.

Buehrle-

Do we even need to talk about Buehrle and his ability to consistently put up 200 innings? Well, OK. He’s done it 14 seasons in a row. While that is impressive, there is some cause for concern. He came down to the wire to finish with 202 innings last season. His 6 1/3 innings per start are not great either. So, like Dickey, he makes the number of starts of an ace, hits the number of innings of an ace, but does not go deep into games like an ace.

As for his GameScore…yeah, it has never been 60 or better. His highest score was 56.2, but that was in 2001. Last season, it was 51.4, which is right near his career average (51).  Obviously, this is not the score of an ace.

Last season, Mark Buehrle put up a WPA of 1.36. That is not Kershaw territory, but it is a positive number to start with. The Blue Jays were positively impacted by him being their starter. This number is not the highest of his career (he had 7 seasons better, in fact), but it is better than his career average of 1.26. Still, it is not the value of an ace.

As far as his FIP goes, Buehrle had his most successful season in years last season. His 3.66 mark was the best since 2005! But, before we go getting too excited, he is projected to reach 4.48. An ace does a better job with the things he is directly responsible for. If you’ve been paying attention, you know that Buehrle gives up his share of hits and it shows in a WHIP of 1.36 last season. We already discussed his command, so the hits are what hurt him.

Hutchison-

It is a bit unfair to judge Hutchison on innings pitched. 2014 was meant to see if he can get through an entire season. And, he did. He made 32 starts for 184.2 innings. That’s good for him, yes. But, it is not ace material. He has to get through a full season, but the inning totals need to be higher. He averaged under 6 innings per start last season. He’s got to last longer than that.

His GameScore sat at 52.3 last season. He’s having an OK impact on the game, but is nowhere near dominating them. We know how good he CAN BE, but he has not lived up to that consistently. He is not an ace. He may be one day, but not today.

Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

The average view of his impact on the games he starts in is furthered by his WPA. By having him take the mound, the Blue Jays benefit from-0.19 wins. He adds a negative win probability. It is not a huge negative value, but it is there. Even if we accept that it is close to zero, we’re still saying that he adds the likelihood of ZERO wins.

This all may be due to the 3.85 FIP. A value of nearly 4 is not ace-like. It is not terrible, mind you, but it shows that he needs to do a better job of the things he can control. HIs WHIP was 1.26 last season which included 23 HR allowed.

None of this points to the dependability of an ace.

Stroman-

Stroman probably cannot be judged by last year’s innings totals either. He reached 130.2 in 20 starts and 26 games.  But, it is not difficult to imagine him making a full season of starts. Whether it was out of the bullpen or starting, Stroman took the ball every time he was called upon. If we were to project his innings over a full season, we’d end up at or near the 200 mark.

Stroman scores the highest of any Blue Jays starter with a value of 56.1. It is creeping close to that magical (if not nearly impossible) number of 60. This tells us that of all the starters, Stroman has the highest impact on his games.

WPA-He added a win probability of 1.10 last season. Now, it is a far cry from Kershaw’s 5.47, but let’s be honest, there aren’t many who will come close to that. Given that he was a rookie last year, it is not unreasonable to expect Stroman to continue to grow and his WPA to increase.

Stroman’s FIP was 2.84 showing us that he did a great job of controlling things. But, this alone doesn’t quite tell the story. Michael Wray pointed this out to me: Stroman was nearly elite last year FIP- (FIP adjusted for ballparks) of 70 (that’s 30% better than league average) and he was 12th best in baseball (min 130 IP) ahead of Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, David Price, Stephen Strasburg. Hello! He was helped out by a 1.17 WHIP and the fact that he only gave up 7 HR. Those numbers may not hold true over a full season of starting, though.

When it comes down to dependability and impact, Stroman appears to be the most ace-like starter the Blue Jays have. And, he’s just 23. All of this and his ‘bulldog’ approach and swagger make him a good bet for future success. Too bad we can’t quantify ‘bulldog’ and swagger. I think he’d be a lock for ace then.

Sanchez-

If we are going to call into question the innings issue with Stroman, we can’t even look at it when it comes to Aaron Sanchez. Given that he came out of the bullpen in his first year of major league service for the Blue Jays last year, we can’t get an accurate picture of his innings contributed. As well, his minor league career did not yield more than 90 innings in a season. It is questionable as to whether he has a full 200 inning season in him. Moreover, the Blue Jays should not expect him to.

Given that he only came out of the bullpen and GameScore is calculated based on starting, Sanchez does not have a GameScore to which we can refer. So, we’ll have to make do with his other numbers. Despite his limited role, Sanchez still had a WPA of 0.96.That means he added nearly a win. This impact probably has a lot to do with the filthy stuff we already discussed. And, like Stroman, his FIP is pretty sick. His 2014 FIP sits at 2.80 with a FIP- value of 72, which is 28% better than the average. These numbers are encouraging heading into a season that has high expectations for Sanchez. Can his nasty stuff carry him to the ace label?

Verdict-

Based on the above, it would appear that Marcus Stroman has the dependability and impact of an ace. That should come with the note that Stroman may not be in the upper echelon of aces, but he certainly stands out as having the durability and impact needed to be the ace of this Blue Jays staff. Buehrle and Dickey certainly have the innings totals, but they lack in impact and value that Stroman provides.