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John Sickels Answers Some (Blue Jay) Questions


If you haven’t visited minor league ball.com yet, pull yourself out from whatever rock you’ve been hiding behind and check it out. The site is home to John Sickels, who is a well regarded prospect analyst. At minor league ball, Sickels offers up stellar scouting reports, prospect lists and just about anything a prospect crazed baseball fan could want.

Sickels answered some reader questions yesterday, including some Blue Jay related queries. Here they are:

On Colby Rasmus:

Q: Not a prospect, but not an established player either per se. What are your expectations for him now entering his first full year out of St. Louis?

A: I think he is what he is, for now.

However, he has a broad range of skills, and I expect he’ll kick his production up a notch when he gets in the age 27-29 range, have an All-Star season or two in him.

On Adeiny Hechevvarria:

Q: What do you think will happen with him in the Majors? Will the Jays move him to 2B, maybe move Escobar, or wait and just take a wait and see?

A: I think it is wait and see right now. He’s got to show something with the bat outside of Las Vegas/PCL. If he does, the Jays will find a way to make room in 2013.

On Brett Lawrie:

Q: I know there are two sides here, one that loves and overrates him, and another that really really loves and overrates him. Which is fine, I’m in the middle of those two. But what is your gut feeling on how he produces this year and for the rest of his career? Do you see anything there, besides makeup, that would hold him back from establishing a 270/350/470 peak with 30 SB’s? Or do you have some ice water to cool me down. Sometimes, I still get into a fetal position while yelling “Gordon Beckham! I RUE THE DAY!” And it makes me sad. Really really sad.

A: Lawrie can be a franchise cornerstone.

On Jake Marisnick:

Q: Who’s the next Mike Trout? Not necessarily which HS outfielder is going to hit the majors before turning 20, but if there another HS outfielder who is looking at a meteoric rise to the majors who would you pick?

A: Marisnick is a good candidate actually. Very broad skill base and improving.

Q: Are people sleeping on Marisnick a little bit? Do you think he can be an elite prospect this time next year?

A: Marisnick is already considered a premium prospect so I don’t see how he really overlooked.

On Anthony Gose:

Q: Do you see Anthony Gose becoming a complete3 player at the major league level (great power/speed combo with an acceptable BA) and when can we expect him in Toronto? Thanks!

A: I don’t think he will ever hit for a “good” batting average. If he hits .250-.260 they should be happy. He has a shot to draw enough walks to keep his OBP acceptable even with the low batting average. I expect moderate power. Speed/defense pushes him into B+ range but that was a grade I struggled with.

Q: Why is Anthony Gose a B+ prospect while Jonathan Villar is a B-? They’re statistically similar—Villar has been a bit worse offensively but plays a more valuable defensive position—and both reportedly have gold glove kind of potential at their respective positions.

A: I am more confident Gose will hit than I am Villar will, and I’m not supremely confident in Gose. Keep in mind that I got dragged kicking and screaming into giving Gose a B+ and probably gave in to peer pressure on that one.

On Henderson Alvarez:

Q: If Henderson Alvarez still had rookie eligibility, what would have been his grade?

A: Strong B/B+ range.

Q: What kind of year do you think Henderson Alvarez has this year with the Jays?

A: I’s expect some slippage…ERA and FIP more around the 4.00 but still a good K/BB ratio.

On A.J. Jimenez:

Q: You wondered how much power he’d develop in your Top 20 (partial) write-up – how much power does he need to develop to be a solid every day regular? Are the rest of the skills there?

A: I think he could get to 10-12 homers a year eventually but I don’t think he’ll be a huge home run guy. He doesn’t need to be…his glove is quite good and he can hit.

On Gustavo Pierre:

Q: Most of the Ricciardi-era international signings have been woeful, but do you anticipate him “righting” himself? Can he stick at short?

A: He is an extreme long shot at this point. Still young enough to develop, but his skills seem to be getting worse, not better. I don’t see any particular reason for optimism.


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