2 reasons to believe in the Blue Jays, 2 reasons to remain skeptical

The 2025 season has been quite a roller coaster ride for the Blue Jays. They're still trying to find that next gear despite being two months in the season, and they've had some up-and-down performances that have given the fanbase whiplash. While they have shown flashes of being a top contender, they have also put out some dudes.

They've danced around the .500 mark all year and entered play on Tuesday one game below .500 after a rough showing over the week. Here are some reasons why you should believe in the Blue Jays, along some reasons why you should have some trepidation.

Note: all stats through Monday's games.

2 reasons to believe in the Blue Jays, 2 reasons to remain skeptical

Reason to believe: Blossoming power

The Blue Jays have found their power stroke over the last month after a ice cold April. They've hit 32 home runs since the last month of April, which is the fifth-best mark in the American League. A big reason for that has been the return of Daulton Varsho, who has hit eight home runs since coming off the injured list on April 29.

The Blue Jays have also received a combined 16 home runs from the top four in their order in Bo Bichette (4), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5), Anthony Santander (4) and George Springer (3). The Blue Jays have also slugged .401 in that time period after slugging just .348 across the first month of the season.

Reason to be skeptical: They're getting hit too hard

While the Blue Jays power numbers are starting to surge, their opponents' power numbers have been sky high since the beginning of the year.

The Blue Jays pitching staff has allowed the second most home runs in the league (76). And it's not like things have gotten better, as they've given up 43 home runs over the past 30 days.

Simply put, they're giving up too much hard contact. Hitters have a hard-hit rate of 42.8% and a barrel rate of 11% against Blue Jays hitters, which are some of the worst marks in the majors.

While Blue Jays hitters are limiting their opponents to a .237 batting average, they also have a slugging percentage of .415, which is far too high of a number for a winning team.

Reason to believe: Defense

Defense has been the focus of this front office for the last three years. While the famous line of ‘defense wins championships’ hasn’t exactly translated to any postseason wins for this iternation of the Blue Jays, their defense has helped theem win a fair share of games this year.

They've been solid in limiting the opponents' running game. They've allowed just 30 stolen bases, (fifth-best in the league) and have thrown out 17 runners attempting to steal, which is tied for second-best in the league.

The catching tandem of Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman have combined for 13.8 defensive fWAR. Individually, Kirk has produced the third best fdWAR among catchers this season (9.3).

THe Blue Jays team fdWAR figure of 19.1 leads MLB, and they're fourth in MLB in defensive runs saved (31).

Reason to be skeptical: Poor play against good teams

To be the best, you have to beat the best, and the Blue Jays have not done that this season. They're 11-19 against teams who are over .500 , which is the third-worst mark in that category, which is surpassed only by the White Sox (5-21) and the Athletics (8-20).

This is not the company Toronto wants to find itself in.

While they turned things around with a 9-11 record against teams over .500 thanks to their sweep over the Padres last year, they still have some ground to make up.

While the Blue Jays are at a “soft-spot” in their schedule right now with seven games against Texas and the Athletics, they won’t get many chances to feast upon lower competition.

Toronto is staring down the barrel of a daunting June that includes games against the Philadelphia Phillies, Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals, and Arizona Diamondbacks.

They won’t play a true bottom feeder until they host the Chicago White Sox on June 20. We'll have to see if the Blue Jays are under .500 themselves at that point.