2 reasons the Blue Jays have what it takes to win the AL East, 2 reasons they don't

It has been a while since the Toronto Blue Jays found themselves in this position - leading the American League East after the MLB trade deadline. They enter Monday's action at 65-48, with a three game lead on the Boston Red Sox.

According to FanGraphs, Toronto has a 60% chance of winning the division while the the Yankees are behind them at 24.3% and the Red Sox are at 14.6%. Last year, the Yankees won the East with a 94-68 record. It might take the Blue Jays a little more to get it done this year, but in order to reach the 94 win threshold they would need to go 29-20 over these final 49 games.

If we use that as the bottom rung of how the Blue Jays can accomplish their goal of winning the AL East, here are two reasons for why they have what it takes to get it done, and two reasons they don't.

Do the Blue Jays now have what it takes to win the AL East?

Why they have what it takes: Among the leagues best in key stats

The Blue Jays offense started turning a corner in May and they have not looked back. They lead the American League with an OBP of .334, a team batting average of .264, they have the most hits with 1,012 and the leas strikeouts with 748.

They also have the third most walks with 379 and they are slashing .279/.354/.415 with runners in scoring position, once again leading the way in the batting average and OBP categories. Their record of 18-14 in one run games is the best in the division. But the question remains; can they keep it up?

Why they don't have what it takes: No major additions to the lineup

While the past performances predicates that the Blue Jays should continue to score runs, they may be getting just about all they are going to get out of this current lineup. At the trade deadline they did not reel in any major names to provide a spark or some reliability behind the group that has gotten them this far.

There were names available such Eugenio Suárez, Josh Naylor, Ryan O'Hearn, Ramón Laureano and Carlos Correa. Any of these moves, while it would have been costly, would have also added some new life into a lineup that carries several names of unproven hitters.

Yes, the Blue Jays are getting great, while unexpected, seasons from the likes of Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, and Nathan Lukes, while George Springer, Alejandro Kirk and Bo Bichette have all had excellent bounce back seasons.

But to continue to rely on just that group, and cross your fingers that Daulto Varsho comes back and hits home runs at a 7.5% rate, or that Clement will continue to hit .339 with a .373 OBP against lefties, or that Joey Loperfido continues to slug at a .538 pace, might all be very wishful thinking.

Why they have what it takes: They get it done when it counts

Despite the losses to the lowly Orioles and the struggling Royals this past week, the Blue Jays have been a tough opponent for teams who have had good seasons. They have a .569 winning percentage against teams who are more than two games above .500 this season, while they are .667 against teams who are within two games of .500.

Their win percentage drops to .553 in games against teams who are more than two games below the .500 mark.

They also rank third in winning percentage against fellow playoff teams and their 27-21 record against those teams is the third best record in that category. This stat holds true even within their own division as Toronto has a 14-6 record combined against the Yankees and the Red Sox, but are just 5-11 against the Rays and the Orioles.

Why they don't have what it takes: Allowing too many home runs

The Blue Jays pitching has held up quite nicely this year despite the struggle to find any consistency out of the number four and five spots in the rotation through the first two-and-a-half months of the season.

Ever since Eric Lauer and Max Scherzer have been filling those roles near the end of June, the Blue Jays rotation has been stabilized, while the additions to the bullpen should deepen that core and provide some relief to a group that was starting to look over worked. Having said that, the entire group has allowed too many home runs. The Blue Jays sit third in the AL with opponents going yard 155 times off Toronto's pitching.

No other team in the AL Playoff picture has allowed more than 135 - and the teams chasing the Blue Jays in the AL East race have been really good at mitigating that type of damage. The Yankees have given up 127 home runs (tied for seventh in the AL) while the Red Sox have given up just 115 (tied for second least). It's a trend that unfortunately has continued all season for Toronto as they have allowed 38 home runs in the last 30 days.

The silver lining is that the guys they have added to the bullpen, Louis Varland and Seranthony Dominguez, have allowed a combined seven home runs all season, less than what Chad Green had allowed (8) before he was designated for assignment.