Blue Jays: All but confirmed Marco Estrada starts opening day

It appears all but a forgone conclusion that Marco Estrada will be anointed the Toronto Blue Jays opening day starter when the Blue Jays visit the Baltimore Orioles to kick off the season.

Just a few days ago, I wrote a piece that suggested what I thought would be the alignment of the Toronto Blue Jays rotation. You can view that piece by clicking here to see what I thought it was going to be. It was all but confirmed by Toronto media personality Jeff Blair that Marco Estrada would be the guy that toes the rubber on April 3rd against the Baltimore Orioles. Mike Wilner of Sportsnet also hinted at that likely Opening Day nod in a piece written yesterday.

It was thought by quite a few people at the beginning of the spring that it would be J.A. Happ that got the Opening Day start mainly due to Aaron Sanchez‘s late start to the spring. Instead, Jeff Blair also said on Fan 590 that it is likely J.A. Happ would be the arm slotted in to be the 2nd guy out of the gate and pitch in Baltimore. That would also line Happ up to throw at the Blue Jays home opener on April 11th against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Estrada is coming off a very successful campaign which saw him earn his first ever all-star selection but a severe back injury kept him from making an appearance and was also on the 15 day DL. The DL stint and back injury prevented Estrada from having a fantastic season, as the back really affected him during a bit of a mid-season hiccup.

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Estrada finished strong and really turned it on going into the post-season where he dominated in 2/3 starts. In his 3 post-season starts in 2016, his lines looked as follows:

• vs. Texas Rangers: 8.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 6 K, 0 BB (ALDS Game 1 – October 6th, 2016)
• vs. Cleveland Indians: 8.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 BB (ALCS Game 1 – October 14th, 2016)
• vs. Cleveland Indians: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 7 K, 0 BB (ALCS Game 5 – October 19th, 2016)

1 good start and 2 dominant starts. That comes on the heels of a 2015 post-season where Estrada also threw 1 good start and 2 dominant ones:

• vs. Texas Rangers: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 K, 0 BB (ALDS Game 3 – October 11th, 2015)
• vs. Kansas City Royals: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 6 K, 0 BB (ALCS Game 1 – October 16th, 2015)
• vs. Kansas City Royals: 7.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 K, 0 BB (ALCS Game 5 – October 21st, 2015)

As you can see, the success Estrada has enjoyed in the post-season over the past two seasons has earned him a reputation of being one of the best clutch Blue Jays pitchers of all time. He has also flirted with 2 no-hitters during the 2015 season.

Estrada truly has been one of the biggest surprises in Blue Jays history. There were some serious doubts about him after coming over from the Brewers in a trade for Adam Lind in October of 2014.

Many people, including myself, did not want Estrada near the Rogers Centre mound unless it was in a mop-up or long relief role. That is where he started his 2015 season and eventually made his way into the rotation to stay and dominate.

For a guy who was not expected to do much, 2015 was a pleasant surprise. There were a ton of doubts going into 2016 due to the discrepancy in his 3.13 ERA and 4.40 FIP and 4.93 xFIP.

In 2016, his ERA was 3.48 ERA and 4.15 FIP and 4.64 xFIP. Much like J.A Happ, Marco Estrada has the ability to defy the peripherals because of the soft contact hit against him, deception, and ability to have pinpoint control. You can survive and be very effective in the MLB as long as you have control.

Marco Estrada’s Blue Jays career looks like:

• 357.0 IP, 22-17, 7.47 K/9, 3.02 BB/9, 3.30 ERA, 4.8 fWAR

Next: Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman, Mother Face Backlash At WBC

A very nice Blue Jays career including some of the best starts for the Blue Jays in recent memory. If he is indeed confirmed as the Opening Day guy, it is well deserved.