Blue Jays season preview: 5 reasons this could be the year

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With the Toronto Blue Jays on the eve of defending their American League East crown, these five factors have the potential to put them over the top

The wait is over.

On the eve of opening day, the Blue Jays are set to wrap up another successful stop in Montreal and board a plane for Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida where they’ll open up the season with a four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Yesterday morning we looked at three reasons the Blue Jays could struggle in the season ahead. Whether it be an ill-placed injury, short outings from the starting rotation, or plain old regression, there are challenges waiting on this road.

Enough from Chicken Little, though.

This Blue Jays lineup is bubbling over with talent from one to nine, and with rotation upside to pair alongside their impressive bullpen, Toronto will have every opportunity to repeat as champions in the AL East. With the playoff experience under their belts, there’s no ruling out this roster’s ability to take it one step further than they managed last October.

Ahead, we look at five reasons why the Blue Jays are positioned to go all the way. First up, the underrated ceilings of the starting five (and beyond).

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No. 5: Upside in the starting rotation

There isn’t a pitcher in Toronto’s starting rotation without the potential to perform well beyond their 2016 expectations. Yes, even ol’ reliable in R.A. Dickey.

The knuckleballer has made a habit of coming on strong later in the summer, and with a cumulative 3.82 ER over the past two seasons (67 starts), it’s conceivable that Dickey drops that below the 3.50 mark by catching fire a little bit earlier. After dropping 12 pounds this offseason and having a procedure to repair his torn meniscus, which he played with through nearly all of 2015 with, Dickey’s knuckleball velocity could finally see him storm out of the gates.

He’ll be joined by two young guns in Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman, both of whom possess ace-level ceilings and will be backed by a top-shelf defence. They’re still raw, but both are more than ready to contribute.

Offseason free agent signing J.A. Happ could also prove to be a tremendous piece of transactional value if he can recapture even some of his Pittsburgh magic. After being dealt to the Pirates at the 2015 trade deadline, the typically-average Happ made 11 starts with an incredible 1.85 ERA. He also jumped his strikeouts per nine innings from 6.6 with Seattle up to 9.6 after the trade. If some of those advancements linger into 2016, the Blue Jays could have a very solid lefty option at a relative bargain.

Even Marco Estrada, whose potential for regression admittedly looms large, enters the year with cause for optimism. From August on, the changeup maestro made 12 starts to a 2.59 ERA before pitching 19.1 dominant playoff innings. His approach to that success was unorthodox at times, but if he can continue to trend upwards, his two-year, $26 million deal will be another piece of quality business.

Next: No. 4: Whole lotta glove

No. 4: The Department of National Defence

The Blue Jays’ most underrated team tool comes in the field.

At all premium defensive positions, and several others, the Blue Jays feature elite defensive options that should help the 2016 club to be one of the cleanest fielding teams in baseball.

This begins behind the plate with Russell Martin and extends through the heart of the field with Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Goins both offering Gold Glove potential at shortstop and second base. Stretching into centre-field, Kevin Pillar shores up the heart of the diamond after emerging as a human highlight reel in 2015.

On the corner, the Blue Jays have the excellent defensive skills of Josh Donaldson and a plus option at first in Justin Smoak. Michael Saunders and Jose Bautista don’t exactly live up to the bar set by Pillar in centre (or come close), but the Jays could do much worse.

The gloves don’t stop there, though. Darwin Barney brings a Gold Glove of his own to the utility infielder position, producing one of the strongest top-to-bottom defensive middle-infields in baseball. Even Devon Travis, slated to return by midseason, performed above his defensive scouting reports as a rookie last season.

In an injury strikes the outfield, the days of Chris Colabello and Danny Valencia plodding around left field are now long gone. The young Dalton Pompey will be waiting at triple-A Buffalo and comes with an immense ceiling as a fielder. Covering centre-field would be no problem for him, either, as he still projects to feature there longterm.

The Jays also have Ezequiel Carrera, Darrell Ceciliani, and Junior Lake. Not elite by any means, but as natural outfielders, they’re a welcome upgrade from 2015.

Next: No. 3: You may soon be thanking Shapiro and Atkins

No. 3: The power of depth

Since taking the reigns this offseason, general manager Ross Atkins and president Mark Shapiro have circled “DEPTH” in bright red pen. It hasn’t been the sexiest offseason strategy, but come July or August, you’ll be thanking them.

Positional depth is very encouraging entering the season, and at nearly every position, the Blue Jays can afford to take an injury without dropping off to an incapable replacement. The outfield will have options aplenty with Pompey, Lake, Ceciliani, or Domonic Brown, while first basemen Casey Kotchman and Jesus Montero could represent the classic “safe depth” and “dice roll” from the triple-A level.

The catching position is still thin, but offseason additions of Humberto Quintero and Tony Sanchez have begun to repair the upper minors while A.J. Jimenez may still slip through to Buffalo. At nearly every infield and outfield position, the Blue Jays also have Andy Burns coming off a very impressive spring training.

It’s on the mound, though, where Toronto’s best depth work has taken place.

Beyond the starting five in the rotation, Toronto has Gavin Floyd, Jesse Chavez, and 2015 opening day starter Drew Hutchison waiting. Floyd and Chavez could be starting on many teams in the league, while Hutchison’s raw upside could see him return to a middle-of-the-rotation arm at some point this year for the Jays.

Looking to the bullpen, left-handed depth is present in the young Chad Girodo, who could quickly become a factor after a strong start with the Bisons. The same goes for switch-pitcher Pat Venditte.

From the right side, a pool of veteran arms from Buffalo like David Aardsma, Chad Jenkins, Ben Rowen, or eventually Bo Schultz (hip injury) could provide solid depth. Add Conner Greene to that list later in the season, and if John Stilson can finally remain healthy, he’s a dark horse candidate to be the impact arm that very few people saw coming.

Next: No. 2: Triple trouble on the back end for Toronto

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No. 2: The bullpen’s three-headed monster (and more)

Rule number one: The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays bullpen can not, at any time, be referred to as “following the Kansas City Royals” model. Having a quality bullpen and multiple back-end options is not a recent invention of Toronto’s least-loved rival, but in 2016, the Jays have a ‘pen of their own to be feared.

Roberto Osuna is back as closer, and despite his age and the competition from Drew Storen, my gut tells me that it would take a lot for John Gibbons to reverse this decision at any point in the season. This may be Osuna’s home for a long, long time.

And that’s just fine. The 21-year-old Mexican broke out as a legitimate star in 2015 after arriving well ahead of his expected arrival at the big league level. Striking out over one batter an inning, Osuna recorded 20 saves after taking over for Brett Cecil and Miguel Castro, posting a 2.58 ERA.

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Setting up for him will be Drew Storen, who is perfectly capable of being the firmly-entrenched closer on many teams in this league. He was one of baseball’s best ninth-inning men before the arrival of the universally-loved Jonathan Papelbon last season, and while his collapse following that move has brought on questions of his mental strength, Storen’s history of success speaks for itself. He should be a perfect fit with Gibbons, too, who has the utmost appreciation for the comfort of his veterans.

To the seventh inning, where Brett Cecil awaits. Along with being one of the game’s most dominant strikeout arms, Cecil is also a lefty who is chasing a free agent contract. There’s a lot to love about his 2016 season already.

One factor to watch will be how flexible Gibbons is with Cecil and Storen, and whether he flip-flops them to get Cecil lined up with back-to-back lefty hitters at any point.

Even beyond the big three, however, the Jays are looking very comfortable. Both Chavez and Floyd can provide length, while Floyd’s velocity still does bring hopes of him becoming 2016’s Liam Hendriks (as I’d initially assumed was the goal at the time of his signing).

Ryan Tepera, Joe Biagini, and Arnold Leon are still fighting for jobs, but with the depth we’ve already discussed, the sixth and seventh spots in Toronto’s bullpen should quickly settle into a quality option for the long haul.

Next: No. 1: The big reason. And damn, it's a big one.

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No. 1: Those. Damn. Bats.

It’s the obvious answer, but after seeing it on a day-to-day basis, you can’t fault people for losing perspective of just how immense Toronto’s offensive talent is.

Before looking forward, though, let’s look back.

In 2015, the Toronto Blue Jays scored 891 runs. The next closest team? The New York Yankees with 764.

That’s getting close to one run less per game for the second highest-scoring team in baseball. Drop to the halfway mark of the league where the 15th-ranked Detroit Tigers scored 689, and the differential exceeds 200 runs.

The Blue Jays also topped the league in doubles with 308, home runs with 232, RBI with 852, and fell just one point shy of top spot in batting average (hitting .269 compared to .270 by Detroit. Thanks, Miguel Cabrera).

Toronto wasn’t just gripping and ripping, though.

They also led baseball in walks with an incredible 570, but curiously ranked dead-last in intentional base on balls with 12. Even on the bases, despite ranking 12th with just 88 steals, the Blue Jays had the league’s highest success rate of stolen bases with 79.28%.

Next: The flip side: 3 reasons the Blue Jays could struggle

If you look at the players who appeared in the majority of Toronto’s lineups last season, you can essentially swap out Ben Revere for Michael Saunders and Jose Reyes for Troy Tulowitzki.

Toronto did not see the real Tulowitzki last season, and if healthy, he possesses the talent to eclipse 30 home runs with an average near the .300 mark. Even Saunders, who has shown flashes throughout his career, is coming off a very strong spring and launched a home run to straight-away centre-field on Friday night in Montreal.

Some regression is to be expected of course, but even if the Blue Jays 2015 offence can land within 20 miles (sorry, 32.19 kilometres) of last year’s effort, Toronto will be among the league leaders. Given the talent they boast from one through nine, that shouldn’t take much effort at all.

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