Blue Jays Top-30 Prospects: Honorable mentions, part one

LHP Matt Smoral
21 years old  –  6’8″, 220 pounds
Drafted: Round 1 (50), 2012

Smoral falls just short in our rankings this season, and has quickly become one of the more difficult prospects to slot in the system. Originally considered to be a top High School arm in his draft class, the towering lefty has struggled to stay healthy and perform consistently over his first three professional seasons.

A rocky debut in 2013 was quickly turned around in 2014, where Smoral did begin to flash the potential that had him inside Toronto’s top-20 prospects on some lists. Over 53.2 innings split between Vancouver and Bluefield that season, Smoral earned a 3.19 ERA while striking out a whopping 70 batters. Walks were an issue, however, with 33.

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While his body and projectability are both top-shelf, Smoral’s inability to locate the fastball has stunted his overall growth and limited the impact of his excellent slider. These control issues surfaced even more noticeably in Smoral’s shortened 2015 season, where he handed out 20 walks over 14.1 innings between Dunedin and Bluefield.

Despite being 21 years old, Smoral remains a bit of a distant project. All 13 of his appearances this past season came in a relief role, so it will be interesting to see if the organization remains committed to that path going forward or if they attempt to stretch him out once again. With just 93.2 career innings at the minor league level, though, it’s still all about patience.

The mechanical logistics of a 6’8″ lefty don’t always lend themselves well to fast-tracked development, but if Toronto remains committed to bringing Smoral along slowly, he could absolutely still develop into an impactful arm. His ceiling hasn’t necessarily changed, it’s just that Smoral has spun his tires getting out of the gates. With some health luck, improved fastball control and the continued development of his changeup, Smoral could be a sneaky candidate for a breakout prospect in 2016.

Next: Lane Thomas a near miss at second base

2B Lane Thomas
20 years old  –  6’1″, 210 pounds
Drafted: Round 5 (144), 2014

Consider second baseman Lane Thomas to be in the just-barely-missed category, as well. Like Smoral, 2016 could be a big year for the former High School outfielder and pitcher. While the reports I’ve read and footage I’ve seen don’t represent the smoothest plate approach, he does have some tantalizing offensive potential.

I do like the power upside of Thomas’ game, and scouts seem impressed with his ability to put the barrel on the ball. He’s also listed at 210 pounds now, up a good amount from his draft year, so when combined with his raw athletic talents (which are impressive), there’s reason for optimism.

This past season between Vancouver and Lansing, Thomas posted a cumulative slash line of .206 / .244 / .353 over 52 games, having a far more difficult time at the plate in his nine games with the Canadians. In an equal sample size of games in his first pro season of 2014, Thomas managed a .281 average with nine stolen bases and 27 walks. He managed just 11 free passes in 2015, so that’s got to bounce back. Watch for him to develop as more of a baserunning threat this year, too, if given more opportunities.

Part of his struggles in 2015 could be attributed to the fact that he underwent a change in positions. After leaving the High School ranks primarily as an outfielder, he split the 2014 season between centre field (20 games) and third base (25 games). This year, however, he transitioned full time to second base.

His athleticism gives him a strong foundation to work with in the field, so it will be interesting to watch how committed the Blue Jays become to one position with Thomas. If he’s able to realize a level of offensive potential, some utility ability may work to push him over the hump as he climbs through the minor league system.

Next: Next up, a small-but-mighty outfield sleeper in Lansing

OF Chris Carlson
24 years old  –  5’9″, 180 pounds
Draft: Round 28, 2014

Carlson is a a great under-the-radar name to keep an eye on throughout 2016. The type of player that won’t get much love in terms of top-prospect love due to his age and draft round, but all he’s done is produce since joining the Blue Jays organization in 2014.

Drafted out of California Polytechnic State University, the college outfielder played 56 games for the Vancouver Canadians in 2014, batting .312 with a fantastic .409 OBP. With 36 walks and only 25 strikeouts, it’s clear he comes with a mature and advanced plate approach. This is something he explained to Brian Crawford of JaysProspects.com in a great profile here.

“When I’m in the batter’s box I just try to not do too much,” Carlson said. “If you do that the pressure is on the pitcher to make good pitches. If he doesn’t I just try to take advantage of it any way I can.”

Carlson took another step forward in 2015 over a full season (106 games) with the Lansing Lugnuts. While his batting average took a moderate step back to .290, the lefty’s slugging percentage ballooned over 50 points to .437. His seven home runs were a nice surprise after zero the year prior, and Carlson tossed in 15 stolen bases for good measure. Continuing with his excellent plate approach, he managed 52 walks with just 42 strikeouts.

He’s been used in the corner outfield positions thus far and will be overshadowed by more dynamic names like Anthony Alford, D.J. Davis or Dwight Smith Jr. He may be blocked by some combination of those names, as well, but I’m confident in his ability to hit regardless of where he lands in 2016. His height is often held against him, but the numbers above should take up a larger part of the conversation.

***UPDATE: Some unfortunate news here, as Carlson’s Minor League bio lists him as being on the ‘Voluntarily Retired List’. An unexpected development for a player coming off two strong seasons, but we wish him the best with his next step off the field.

Next: Wait, there's a lefty arm remaining in the system!?

LHP Shane Dawson
22 years old  –  6’1″, 200 pounds
Draft: Round 17, 2012

The further we dive into these Honorable Mention names, the worse I feel about certain young players being left on the outside looking in. But, such is the nature of this uniquely crowded 15-to-50 group in Toronto’s prospect rankings. Alberta’s Shane Dawson represents a lefty arm that survived the great purge of late-July, and continues to produce as he moves through the system.

Now 22, Dawson was drafted in 2012 and has since advanced through Lansing and up to Dunedin. Across those two levels this past year, Dawson pitched an impressive 127.2 innings and earned 15 (!) wins. Dawson also recorded a 3.03 cumulative ERA, and his 3.38 ERA from Lansing in 2014 remains his highest single-season mark. Not bad at all.

He’s put up some impressive strikeout numbers thus far in his career, but those could taper off somewhat as he faces stronger competition at the higher levels of the minors given his velocity. He managed a cumulative K/9 of 8.5 last year, just below his career minor league mark of 9.1.

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Dawson’s fastball sits in the neighborhood of 90MPH, but he does have a very impressive changeup that he likes to play off of that. Scouts are also impressed by his curveball usage, and from speaking with him on the Jays Nest Podcast in 2015, Dawson seems to be a young pitcher very aware of the mental side of the game. This will serve him well as he continues to outsmart hitters.

The coming year will be all about keeping the ball rolling for Dawson. Uniquely, he’s missing a muscle in his left rotator cuff. This has raised questions about his long-term health and durability, but so far so good. His ceiling potential is likely that of a back-end MLB starter, but if he continues to put up numbers in the quiet manner that he has, his climb up the ladder could be quicker than some think.

Next: Alright, another lefty. This one a 2015 draft pick!

LHP Travis Bergen
22 years old  –  6’1″, 205 pounds
Draft: Round 7, 2015

Bergen represents another lefty arm remaining in the Blue Jays system, and was drafted out of Kennesaw State after a successful career there as a starting pitcher. Similar to Shane Dawson, he’s got an opportunity to put up quality numbers and creep up the rankings in an under-the-radar fashion.

You’ll either see him listed as 6’0″ or 6’1″, which isn’t damning for a pitcher by any means, but his unique arm angle and release point can limit his downhill plane and flatten his hard pitches. It does, of course, provide him with a little deception. Take a look at his mechanics coming from the left side:

MLB.com had the following to say about Bergen ahead of the 2015 MLB Amateur Draft, where they ranked him 150th overall: “Bergen’s breaking ball varies between a fringy slider in the lower 80s and a promising cutter in the upper 80s, and he may want to focus on the cutter in pro ball. His changeup has some sink and is an effective third pitch. He throws enough strikes to remain a starter, though his lack of a true plus pitch gives him little margin for error.”

Perhaps there is some bullpen intrigue if the starting route doesn’t work, but that’s far, far down the road. Coming in to 2016 fresh he’ll have an opportunity to roll full-time as a starter, and given his experience at the college level, should move quickly if his numbers allow. If he can work his cutter and continue to pound away with sinking action on his fastball, there may be some groundball potential there.

In his very brief debut with the Vancouver Canadians last summer, Bergen struck out 11 batter in just 5.1 innings, allowing only one walk and two hits.