Blue Jays 2012 Draft Picks and AL East Comparison


We may be 6 months or so away from the MLB draft, but the draft pick picture is starting to take shape. Yankees blog site River Avenue Blues has an updated list of the 2012 draft picks a has updated the list of draft picks on their site and it paints a decent picture for the Jays, even if it isn’t as lucrative as in the last few years.

Even if they’re not making off like bandits this year, the Jays are still well ahead of their AL East rivals. The Red Sox are the only other AL East team to get significant compensation in 2012, as they are getting some for losing Jonathan Papelbon (currently slated to be the 31st and 37th overall picks) and Dan Wheeler (yet to be determined, and would obviously be nothing if he re-signs with the Red Sox). The Yankees also get one compensation pick much later in the draft for not signing Sam Stafford, which is slated to be the 89th overall pick.

Meanwhile, here’s a breakdown of the regular and compensation benefits the Jays are set to enjoy in the 2012 MLB draft as compared to the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Orioles:

Baltimore Orioles 2012 Picks

  • 4th Overall (1st rd)
  • 58th Overall (2nd rd) *likely to move back when Type A FAs sign (2 spots or so)
  • 91st Overall (3rd rd) *likely to move back when Type A/B FAs sign (10 spots or so)
Boston Red Sox 2012 Picks
  • 24th Overall (1st rd)
  • 31st Overall (Jonathan Papelbon Compensation)
  • 37th Overall (Jonathan Papelbon Compensation)
  • Most likely somewhere in the supplemental rd for losing Dan Wheeler
  • 79th Overall (2nd rd) *likely to move back when Type A/B FAs sign (2 spots or so)
  • 110th Overall (3rd rd) *likely to move back when Type A/B FAs sign (10 spots or so)
New York Yankees 2012 Picks
  • 30th Overall (1st rd)
  • 85th Overall (2nd rd) *likely to move back when Type A/B FAs sign (2 spots or so)
  • 89th Overall (Sam Stafford Compensation) *likely to move back when Type A/B FAs sign (10 spots or so)
  • 116th Overall (3rd rd) *likely to move back when Type A/B FAs sign (10 spots or so)
Tampa Bay Rays 2012 Picks
  • 25th Overall (1st rd)
  • 80th Overall (2nd rd) *likely to move back when Type A/B FAs sign (2 spots or so)
  • 101st Overall (3rd rd) *likely to move back when Type A/B FAs sign (10 spots or so)
Toronto Blue Jays 2012 Picks
  • 17th Overall (1st rd)
  • 22nd Overall (Tyler Beede Compensation)
  • 48th Overall (Jose Molina Compensation)
  • 51st Overall (Jon Rauch Compensation)
  • 52nd Overall (Frank Francisco Compensation)
  • 73rd Overall (2nd rd) *likely to move back when Type A/B FAs sign (2 spots or so)
  • 104th Overall (3rd rd) *likely to move back when Type A/B FAs sign (10 spots or so)
Summary:
  • The Jays get 2 top 25 picks, while 3 other AL East teams only get 1 and the Yankees get none in the top 25.
  • The Jays and Red Sox get 3 picks in the top 50 while all others only get 1.
  • The Jays get 7 picks in the first 3 rounds, the Red Sox get 6, the Yankees get 4, and the Orioles and Rays get 3 each.
Once again, the Jays will have one of the best hauls in the AL East and will be able to add significant talent to an already talent laden minor league system.
Last March, Baseball America ranked the AL East systems as follows:
  • Rays: 2nd
  • Blue Jays: 4th
  • Yankees: 5th
  • Red Sox: 17th
  • Orioles: 21st

Now, we can’t very well ignore the 2011 draft and the international signings each team completed thereafter, can we. So, here’s a list of who got which picks in the top 100 selections of the 2011 draft (how many total, and how many signed in brackets):

  • Rays: 24, 31, 32, 38, 41, 42, 52, 56, 59, 60, 75, 89 (total of 12, all signed)
  • Blue Jays: 21, 35, 46, 53, 57, 74, 78 (total of 7, 6 signed)
  • Yankees: 51, 88 (total of 2, 1 signed)
  • Red Sox: 19, 26, 36, 40, 81 (total of 5, all signed)
  • Orioles: 4, 64, 94 (total of 3, all signed)

If I read this list right, the strong systems got stronger after the draft (TB/TOR), while the weaker systems got weaker in comparison (NYY, BOS, BAL). And that’s despite the Jays not inking their top pick! TB has a spectacular draft and all but ensured they are going to remain a team to be reckoned with over the long haul, while the Yankees and Orioles really did lack an abundance of picks high up in the draft. One injury or lack luster performance from their top picks, and this draft could be a disaster for both teams.

Carrying on, let’s take a look at what each team did on the international market.

As you can see from the list above, the same teams that were the recipients of many draft picks in the 2011 draft (TB, TOR, BOS) were also the most aggressive on the international market, with the Jays getting what was rated as the best prospects of the bunch according to most in the business. This is where the Jays caught up to the Rays by adding a ton of potentially top-end talent in Gonzalez, Lugo, Osuna, and Beccera. All 4 rank ahead of any international prospect signed by other AL East teams in 2011.

Added up, this tells us that the 2011 draft and international market additions likely made the Rays and Jays stronger than they were when rated 2nd and 4th respectively by Baseball America in March 2011, while the Red Sox could gain some ground and the Yankees and Orioles likely fall back a certain amount.

When looking ahead at the 2012 draft, know this: the Toronto Blue Jays are in great shape already, and are about to take yet another step towards getting more high-end talent on board than their division rivals. Sure, the Red Sox are likely going to keep pace with their numerous top 100 picks, but judging from how aggressive the Jays have been on the international market in comparison to all others in the division, it won’t surprise me to see them dive right in once again and gain a sizable lead in talent influx once again in 2012.

The Rays are not going anywhere but up after getting their haul in the 2011 draft, likely making them the top prospect system in MLB today, but the Jays have to be next or 3rd after adding so much talent in 2011.

It’s January and the Jays can already look forward to another crop of talent to groom into major league caliber talent. They can rest assured in knowing they have more bullets to fire in the draft within the top 100 than their rivals, and with the investments they have made in recent years in scouting and development, that can’t be anything but a great position to be in.

The draft order will be updated as free agent signings are conducted.

-MG

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  • talesen

    Great analysis. You can clearly see the separation between the smart and not-so-smart teams in this regard. Sure, the Orioles have the highest pick but they’re actually losing ground in this war. As the many picks mature into prospects, that’s a currency the GM can use. Even a few million in smart international spending can be flipped into a cost-controlled young starting pitcher if the GM chooses – or start a train of great prospects to the majors, as Tampa has done. Tor & TB even have so many bullets that they can take chances compared to Bal: they need their picks to work out or else. All in all, I’m glad AA “gets it” and is aggressive in acquiring young and international talent.

  • talesen

    Great analysis. You can clearly see the separation between the smart and not-so-smart teams in this regard. Sure, the Orioles have the highest pick but they’re actually losing ground in this war. As the many picks mature into prospects, that’s a currency the GM can use. Even a few million in smart international spending can be flipped into a cost-controlled young starting pitcher if the GM chooses – or start a train of great prospects to the majors, as Tampa has done. Tor & TB even have so many bullets that they can take chances compared to Bal: they need their picks to work out or else. All in all, I’m glad AA “gets it” and is aggressive in acquiring young and international talent.

  • monkeyman

    This is exactly why we should be moving sell-high prospects like D’arnaud, Cooper, and maybe Thames and Hutchison/Mcguire for top MLB talent ie. Felix Hernandez now. Our current wave of MLB talent with all of the 2nd half and offseason upgrades (Lawrie, Rasmus, Santos, Oliver, EE at DH, plus upside from Cecil, Lind, Snider and Arencibia) is easily 8 WAR better than what played most of last season (Nix, Davis, Patterson, Rauch/Francisco, EE at 3rd, Arencibia and Lind injured and Snider/Cecil at Vegas). Adding a 5-6 WAR starter would put us as favorites for a 2nd WC.

    The 2nd wave is mostly 3-5 years behind, except those who underperformed their talent like Drabek and Hechavaria who will serve as great depth for wave 1. Wave 2 begins with 21 year old Gose plus Dunedin or lower prospects plus the past 2 drafts and int’l signings. AA has often talked about timing the system and trading 4-5 high level prospects for Felix now or at the trade deadline is a no-brainer from that perspective, especially considering the prospects listed above are largely redundant in our system and at the MLB level. I don’t buy that Seattle is not a seller as they are a 70 win team with Ichiro on a clear decline and Felix’s contract just took a major step higher into the $20mm range. The other reason I like Felix is that he would be a great mentor for Alvarez and Cardona, 2 similar young latin arms, as well as cement Toronto as a great place for Latin American youngsters to aspire to. For wave 1, the time to win is now before Bautista goes into steep decline.

  • monkeyman

    This is exactly why we should be moving sell-high prospects like D’arnaud, Cooper, and maybe Thames and Hutchison/Mcguire for top MLB talent ie. Felix Hernandez now. Our current wave of MLB talent with all of the 2nd half and offseason upgrades (Lawrie, Rasmus, Santos, Oliver, EE at DH, plus upside from Cecil, Lind, Snider and Arencibia) is easily 8 WAR better than what played most of last season (Nix, Davis, Patterson, Rauch/Francisco, EE at 3rd, Arencibia and Lind injured and Snider/Cecil at Vegas). Adding a 5-6 WAR starter would put us as favorites for a 2nd WC.

    The 2nd wave is mostly 3-5 years behind, except those who underperformed their talent like Drabek and Hechavaria who will serve as great depth for wave 1. Wave 2 begins with 21 year old Gose plus Dunedin or lower prospects plus the past 2 drafts and int’l signings. AA has often talked about timing the system and trading 4-5 high level prospects for Felix now or at the trade deadline is a no-brainer from that perspective, especially considering the prospects listed above are largely redundant in our system and at the MLB level. I don’t buy that Seattle is not a seller as they are a 70 win team with Ichiro on a clear decline and Felix’s contract just took a major step higher into the $20mm range. The other reason I like Felix is that he would be a great mentor for Alvarez and Cardona, 2 similar young latin arms, as well as cement Toronto as a great place for Latin American youngsters to aspire to. For wave 1, the time to win is now before Bautista goes into steep decline.

  • allstev

    @monkeyman d’Arnaud is going to be a consensus top ten prospect in all of baseball, he’s going to hit like Lawrie in Vegas next year..and is a plus defender to top it off..I like Arencibia but people really need to start wrapping their heads around how good this kid is…pretty much the complete opposite of a sell high prospect.

  • JaysJournal

    @monkeyman Well, with the history between the Jays and Mariners (Morrow for Chavez and League) being friendly, you just never know. The one thing you also could add to your argument is the fact that by acquiring Felix, the Jays would be preventing him from to what most seem to think will be his landing place: New York. I, for one, never want to see a CC/Felix combo in NY. So, firing the first salvo in this case may be a good idea, but it’s going to cost the acquiring team A TON!

    Another thing I will add is that if the Jays do acquire Felix at any point in time, they’ll likely demand a period of time where they can work on an extension with him. After all, if they’re going to give up 5-6 great prospects, they’ll want him around for quite a while.

  • allstev

    @JaysJournal@monkeyman I can’t see them dealing the King without Lawrie’s name being in the package..I can’t see the fanbase being OK with that.

  • allstev

    @monkeyman d’Arnaud is going to be a consensus top ten prospect in all of baseball, he’s going to hit like Lawrie in Vegas next year..and is a plus defender to top it off..I like Arencibia but people really need to start wrapping their heads around how good this kid is…pretty much the complete opposite of a sell high prospect.

  • JaysJournal

    @monkeyman Well, with the history between the Jays and Mariners (Morrow for Chavez and League) being friendly, you just never know. The one thing you also could add to your argument is the fact that by acquiring Felix, the Jays would be preventing him from to what most seem to think will be his landing place: New York. I, for one, never want to see a CC/Felix combo in NY. So, firing the first salvo in this case may be a good idea, but it’s going to cost the acquiring team A TON!

    Another thing I will add is that if the Jays do acquire Felix at any point in time, they’ll likely demand a period of time where they can work on an extension with him. After all, if they’re going to give up 5-6 great prospects, they’ll want him around for quite a while.

  • allstev

    @JaysJournal@monkeyman I can’t see them dealing the King without Lawrie’s name being in the package..I can’t see the fanbase being OK with that.

  • JaysJournal

    @allstev@monkeyman I entirely agree, but one is proven and has already taken a leadership role in the Jays clubhouse, while the other has had a ton of ups and downs. The only thing that could really hold d’Arnaud back from a full time MLB job a little is his back.

    Having said that, the Jays have a plethora of catchers coming up behind d’Arnaud who could also challenge for regular time behind the plate. AJ Jimenez, Carlos Perez, and Santiago Nessy in particular make the list of guys who could certainly help the Jays have a dynamic duo behind the plate even without d’Arnaud.

    So, if d’Arnaud is going to be the difference in landing someone like, let’s say, Felix Hernandez, I don’t think the Jays will hold back.

    I’m still not sure which one the Jays will keep, but either way, Jays fans have very little to worry about when it comes to having an above average catcher behind the plate.

  • JaysJournal

    @allstev@monkeyman I entirely agree, but one is proven and has already taken a leadership role in the Jays clubhouse, while the other has had a ton of ups and downs. The only thing that could really hold d’Arnaud back from a full time MLB job a little is his back.

    Having said that, the Jays have a plethora of catchers coming up behind d’Arnaud who could also challenge for regular time behind the plate. AJ Jimenez, Carlos Perez, and Santiago Nessy in particular make the list of guys who could certainly help the Jays have a dynamic duo behind the plate even without d’Arnaud.

    So, if d’Arnaud is going to be the difference in landing someone like, let’s say, Felix Hernandez, I don’t think the Jays will hold back.

    I’m still not sure which one the Jays will keep, but either way, Jays fans have very little to worry about when it comes to having an above average catcher behind the plate.

  • flatjacket1

    @allstev@JaysJournal@monkeyman

    I agree. People seem to only want to part ways with Thames, Drabek and those sorts while not realizing that other teams feel the same way about those players.

  • flatjacket1

    @JaysJournal@allstev@monkeyman Darnaud is still playing at a position of need and we should avoid trading him if we can. JPA likely wont improve much even if he is able to stay at the catcher position.

  • flatjacket1

    @allstev@JaysJournal@monkeyman

    I agree. People seem to only want to part ways with Thames, Drabek and those sorts while not realizing that other teams feel the same way about those players.

  • flatjacket1

    @JaysJournal@allstev@monkeyman Darnaud is still playing at a position of need and we should avoid trading him if we can. JPA likely wont improve much even if he is able to stay at the catcher position.

  • Tammy_Beth

    To clarify, if all 8 of the remaining unsigned type A/B free agents sign with new teams…

    48 becomes 53

    51 becomes 56

    52 becomes 57

    73 becomes 81

    104 becomes 112

    And all picks could move back yet one more spot depending on who signs Madson (since that will require the creation of a new compensation pick)

  • Tammy_Beth

    To clarify, if all 8 of the remaining unsigned type A/B free agents sign with new teams…

    48 becomes 53

    51 becomes 56

    52 becomes 57

    73 becomes 81

    104 becomes 112

    And all picks could move back yet one more spot depending on who signs Madson (since that will require the creation of a new compensation pick)

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