Will Ross Atkins swing for the fences, or will he be more modest at trade deadline?

In just 11 days we'll have our answer. For months speculation has run rampant about what the Toronto Blue Jays will do at the trade deadline. When the season began there was a real possiblity that the Blue Jays would be entering the deadline by entertaining phone calls on the best trades for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero entered the season as an impending free agent, before signing a franchise record contract extension, meaning the Blue Jays are light years away from having to make a difficult call on a franchise player. Not only do they not have to trade Vladdy, but they are also in position to add to the team.

Currently sitting in a playoff position, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins has never been in a position quite like this during his nine years at the helm. Yes, the Blue Jays have been in a playoff spot at the deadline, and yes they have gone out and added to the team, but this is the first time they have been in first place. The first time they really feel like they are maybe a couple of players away from not only being division champions, but possibly being one of the top three teams in the entire American League. So what can we predict about Atkins' game plan for the deadline that is looming ever closer?

Reason one he'll swing for the fences: He's already hinted at being aggressive

Speaking with reporters a few weeks ago, Atkins said the team is "in a strong position" but "we obviously can be better and we'll focus on that." A further report suggested, "Atkins says the Blue Jays are looking to add a right-handed bat. Pitching depth sounds like another priority ahead of the deadline and the Jays should be able to continue to flex their financial muscle - with ownership fully supporting them."

That must sound like music to the ears of long time Blue Jays fans. A GM who recognizes the areas of need and openly suggests they are looking at ways to fix it at the deadline. And there are deals to be had. With the gaps starting to widen between the playoff contenders and the playoff pretenders, teams will start to make decisions on their impending free agents, and seeing what they can get by dangling some players on the market.

In the pitching department the Blue Jays have been linked to names like Zac Gallen, Seth Lugo, Merrill Kelly, and even Freddy Peralta, while there's also an abundance of bullpen arms that are getting more and more attention. On the hitting side, the Blue Jays could be targeting Ryan O'Hearn, Josh Naylor, and Eugenio Suárez.

Most of those acquisitions will likely not be cheap, but they could be the one move that gets Toronto over the hump and finally gets this group a playoff series win - or more.

One reason they will be modest: Atkins doesn't like the trade market

Just because the Blue Jays are linked to those players, and just because they clearly have a need to get those guys, that doesn't mean Atkins is going into this draft with guns blazing and trying to bring in the biggest name he can with no cause for concern about what is going back the other way.

In fact, if there is anything we've truly learned about Atkins since he arrived in the winter of 2015, is that he sticks to his evaluations, he incessantly believes in their internal values of each player, and they rarely, if ever, budge from those beliefs.

Sure, he's saying they want to be aggressive at the deadline, but in the years where the Blue Jays have been buyers, they have only ever made one deal that looked like it could have been an overpay from the on-set. That deal was the 2021 Jose Bérrios trade, in which Atkins sent the Twins two of their top ten prospects in exchange for the electric right hander.

It worked out as neither of those prospects (Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson) have panned out so far and Bérrios stuck around with the Blue Jays, signing a long-term extension. And that was a season in which the Blue Jays didn't even make the playoffs.

In 2016, 2020, 2022 and 2023, Atkins made several deals, to "bolster" the Blue Jays chances at getting to the post season, but none of them resulted in what could be considered a star player coming over to Toronto, rather, it was players like Whit Merrifield, Francisco Liriano, and Jordan Hicks joining the Blue Jays. All of them were players that could raise the floor and fix the edges of the roster as opposed to being an impact player in the middle of the lineup or rotation.

Sticking with the evaluation of players, a lot of the deals Atkins looked to make in these years was for players who had multiple years of control, which made parting with prospects a little easier to swallow. Looking back on all those deals though, Atkins has not yet made a trade where a prospect dealt at the deadline has come back to haunt the Blue Jays...yet

Reason two he'll swing for the fences: Suddenly healthy farm system gives Atkins options

The Blue Jays farm system isn't even close to being regarded as one of the best in the big leagues, but this year they have been graduating players at a healthy rate. Whether that's Addison Barger bursting his way on to the big league team, or pitchers like Khal Stephen and Trey Yesavage moving up to Double-A just one year removed from being drafted.

All of a sudden, Toronto has players on the farm that are turning heads and that bodes well for a team that wants to be aggressive at the deadline. It doesn't mean they have to give away everything, but it does mean you can go into negotiations feeling more confident about dealing one prospect you might really like, while holding onto another.

There's no telling where the market might be 11 days from now. Certainly the Rafael Devers trade doesn't appear to have set the market, looking more like it will be an outlier than a premonition of how GM's view what they should be getting for their star players. But even if prices seem a little steep, Toronto have more depth to deal from than they may have had at the start of the season.

Reason two to be more modest: The help may come internally

Recent events are likely starting to dictate that the Blue Jays could be getting those deadline improvements from internal options. It's not just the guys on the farm that are having productive summers, but players like Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, Nathan Lukes, and now Joey Loperfido have handled the bat well at the plate over the last few weeks.

And despite the numerous injuries sustained by players in the bullpen, the Blue Jays keep finding players to plug in and get the job done, whether that's been Brendon Little, Yariel Rodriguez or Braydon Fisher, Toronto's bullpen has looked shaky at times, but hasn't gone through any kind of terrible stretch since a couple of blown saves in early May.

Maybe, all that means is that the Blue Jays don't feel like they need to acquire a big time bat, or spend an upside prospect on a rental bullpen arm. Maybe it means the Blue Jays feel like they only need to target a specific skill set to incrementally improve the roster like they did in 2022 and 2023.

And maybe the prices are so exorbitant that the Blue Jays don't feel like they can go beyond their "comfort zone" in relation to what they already have on the big league staff. It would mean a lackluster deadline, but wouldn't be completely out of the ordinary to see Atkins shy away from over spending, just for the sake of making a deal.

We'll see which way the Blue Jays go in just 11 days.