Who Makes Up the Ideal Arms for the Blue Jays Post-Season Bullpen?

Yes, yes - they need to actually get to the post-season for this list to be relevant. Yet, despite what all the hand-wringing and panicking fans will have you believe - the Blue Jays currently have a 99.9% chance of doing so, along with a 75% chance of winning the division, according to FanGraphs.

Of course, a great deal of that collective panic has come from watching members of the bullpen do their thing - or, more specifically, struggle to. Prior to the start of Friday's game, the Blue Jays bullpen was tied for third overall with five blown 9th inning leads (ironically, tied with the league's best team, the Milwaukee Brewers). However, zooming out, the Jays' total number of blown leads is 25 - tied for third-best (also with the Brewers), while their bullpen ERA of 4.13 sits right around the middle of the pack at 16th.

Yes, there's room to improve - but the sky is not falling. So - which members of this imperfect, but solid group of hurlers should inhabit the Jays' bullpen once the second season begins?

Who Makes Up the Ideal Arms for the Blue Jays Post-Season Bullpen?

Closer: Jeff Hoffman

It's truly been a bizarre season for Jeff Hoffman - whose performances have swung wildly between terrific and horrific for most of the season. His struggles have been no secret - his seven blown saves are tied for fourth in the majors, his 2.12 HR/9 is second-worst among all relievers (second only to Chad Green), and according to FanGraphs, he's been worth just -0.2 wins above replacement. Not great.

On the flip side - his 30 saves rank 4th, his 11.8 K/9 ranks 20th among all relievers, and of the 32 earned runs he's allowed this season, just seven have come against AL East opponents (and five of those were allowed in one disastrous May appearance against the Rays).

There's been more good than bad - but the bad can't be completely discounted. While he should be the team's post season closer, the Jays would probably be wise to keep Hoffman's leash relatively short.

Set-up: Seranthony Dominguez & Mason Fluharty

It's a set-up pair that literally nobody would have predicted at the start of the season - considering one was plying their trade with the Orioles, while the other was a complete unknown in the minor leagues.

When it comes to Dominguez - his numbers since joining the Blue Jays have been solid - 17 strikeouts in nearly 14 innings, no runs allowed in 12 of 15 appearances - but the nine walks (and 5.4 BB/9 this season) are likely what has stopped Dominguez from supplanting Hoffman in the closer role.
Having said that, his post season track record - just two earned runs allowed with four walks and 27 strikeouts in 15 appearances - means he'll likely get the first shot at the 9th if Hoffman falters.

Fluharty may seem like a controversial choice, given that he's a rookie, has spent the past two weeks in the minors, and has overall numbers that don't jump off the page.

However, the rook has been a different pitcher since his late June demotion when he added a wiggle in his set position to avoid tipping pitches. In 14 appearances, he allowed just five earned runs - with four allowed in one poor outing against the Royals. Those 12 scoreless outings included that infamous outing against the Dodgers, in which he struck out Shohei Ohtani with the bases loaded and one out en route to his first career save.

Like Dominguez (and most of the Jays bullpen), walks have been an issue for Fluharty, so his hold on a high leverage position could be tenuous.

Middle Relief: Brendon Little, Yariel Rodriguez, Louis Varland & Braydon Fisher

It's a talented group, but also a relatively inexperienced one. Combined, this quartet has a grand total of two post season appearances - both by Varland in the 2023 AL Wild Card Series against the Blue Jays.

It's also a grouping that's had its share of struggles - particularly Varland, who's allowed as many earned runs (11) in 15 appearances as he allowed in 51 appearances with the Twins prior to the trade. Little's strikeout rate (12.68 K/9) is 10th among all relievers this season, while his walk rate (5.82 BB/9) is second-worst. Rodriguez has battled velocity inconsistency, while Fisher has struggled with his control at times.

Performance in the coming days could see these roles shift dramatically. All four have the stuff to potentially work their way into higher leverage - Little could supplant Fluharty, Rodriguez has been considered by many to be a closer-in-waiting.

It's also fair to assume that Varland can't possibly continue to struggle this much, given his recent track record. But if he does, and if Little continues to be allergic to the strike-zone on a consistent basis, both could potentially find themselves watching the post season from the press box.

Long relief: Tommy Nance & Eric Lauer

Neither of these pitchers were on anyone's radar entering the season, yet both have been imperative to the team's success. Eric Lauer went from quad-A afterthought to a key member of the starting rotation - one they likely don't climb to the top of the AL East without. The 34-year-old Nance entered the year with just 82 career appearances and a 5.15 ERA, and has allowed just four earned runs in 23 innings, striking out 25.

Of course, plenty can change before the start of October. While Lauer has been a revelation throughout the season as a whole, he's been (understandably) far more inconsistent since Shane Bieber's acquisition put his role in flux. Nance, while brilliant so far, still has plenty of time to turn back into a pumpkin before the regular season ends.

Does top prospect Trey Yesavage's performance in AAA demand an opportunity before the end of the season? Can Lauer find his game in the bullpen? Can Ryan Borucki work his way into the conversation? Is the team's brass willing to deal with the potential long-term implications of leaving Jose Berrios off the post season roster?

We're about to find out.